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re: Predict Final Standings before Conference Play
Posted on 12/26/17 at 9:54 am to mountain D values
Posted on 12/26/17 at 9:54 am to mountain D values
quote:
I don’t think ‘good chance’ describes any of the teams you mentioned in that category. Very average OOC resumes for all 3.
This is a weird thing to say.. Of course none of these teams have impressive resumes in non conference play... but 9-9 or better conference records would put these teams minimally on the good side of the bubble. And, each of these teams has a "good chance" to have that kind of record in conference play.
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Posted on 12/26/17 at 9:59 am to auburnnyc94
Agreed. All 3 of those teams would be around 40-45 in the RPI with .500 league records. Would depend on Ws and Ls but 9-9 should put everyone in decent position.
This post was edited on 12/26/17 at 10:00 am
Posted on 12/26/17 at 10:03 am to auburnnyc94
Even if Bama go .500 in SEC play, they don’t have any great OOC wins, and have a couple very bad losses, and I don’t think they have the overall resume to get in as a 18-19 win team.
Auburn will likely need to hit .500 in conference play and win a game or two in the tournament to give themselves a good chance of dancing. And as I’ve said ITT, idk how anyone can predict this Auburn team right now headed into conference play given how incredibly weak your OOC was this year. It’s certainly possible but I don’t think the chances are ‘good’.
Auburn will likely need to hit .500 in conference play and win a game or two in the tournament to give themselves a good chance of dancing. And as I’ve said ITT, idk how anyone can predict this Auburn team right now headed into conference play given how incredibly weak your OOC was this year. It’s certainly possible but I don’t think the chances are ‘good’.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 10:07 am to mountain D values
quote:Bama probably has to win 10 conference games to get in, but their sos (should it hold up) will give them some leeway.
Even if Bama go .500 in SEC play,
quote:It hasn't been a strong schedule, but if you have watched them play, you can tell they are a decent team. Not great or world beaters, but they will almost certainly be within a game of .500 in conference play. 8 to 10 conference wins is a pretty strong likelihood.
how anyone can predict this Auburn team right now
This post was edited on 12/26/17 at 10:11 am
Posted on 12/26/17 at 10:11 am to mountain D values
Even just from interpreting simple data and then on into some advanced metrics against a relatively weak OOC schedule you can see why Auburn has a good chance to go 9-9 or better in conference play.
And beyond that, I've actually got two eyes and have watched the team play. First team that has actually gotten after it on the boards and defensively in the Bruce Pearl tenure. We aren't competing for any sort of a championship this year, certainly, but there is reason to believe we have a good shot at a tourney bid.
And beyond that, I've actually got two eyes and have watched the team play. First team that has actually gotten after it on the boards and defensively in the Bruce Pearl tenure. We aren't competing for any sort of a championship this year, certainly, but there is reason to believe we have a good shot at a tourney bid.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 10:18 am to PearlJam
quote:
you can tell they are a decent team
Problem is Ole Miss, USC, and Vandy are the only teams in the league that aren’t at least decent. It’s not that your OOC isn’t strong, it’s incredibly weak for a team vying for a bid.
Thankfully for Auburn, your opening stretch in SEC play is relatively easy, so if you guys can navigate that and get Wiley and Purifoy back (no idea what the timeline is regarding those two) for the meat of your schedule, I’d say there’s reason to feel confident.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 10:26 am to mountain D values
quote:
your opening stretch in SEC play is relatively easy
Agreed. This is why I've gotten more optimistic. While we could certainly start 0-2 in conference (@UT, Arky), the next 8 games are all very winnable. We won't run the table but it gives a good chance to be sitting... say, 18-5 (6-4) headed into the stretch run.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:41 pm to auburnnyc94
state will finish in last place,around 3-5 sec wins at most.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:45 pm to mountain D values
I don't think we get in either, but we don't have any bad losses. Our worst loss is to UCF who is probably going to be a NIT team.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:47 pm to HogFanfromHTown
LSU will surprise people this season. We have talent on this team. Will wade has brought in a culture of discipline, toughness, and energy from which this team has already benefitted this season. It will lead to a few wins by itself, and I see LSU realistically finishing 3rd in the west and prob making the ncaa tourney.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:48 pm to HogFanfromHTown
1. Arkansas
2. Kentucky
3. Florida
4. LSU
5. A&M
6. Tennessee
7-14 are anybody's guess
2. Kentucky
3. Florida
4. LSU
5. A&M
6. Tennessee
7-14 are anybody's guess
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:49 pm to PearlJam
quote:Georgia has a better OOC resume than any of these teams
Good chance: Missouri, Auburn, Alabama
I know what teamrankings says but their predictor has them going 7-11 in conference and I don't see that happening considering they haven't been under .500 in conference since 2012
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:50 pm to HogFanfromHTown
1. Kentucky
2. A&M
3. Arkansas
4. Auburn
5. Florida
6. UT
7. Georgia
8. Missouri
9. Alabama
10. Miss State
11. LSU
12. Carolina
13. Ole Miss
14. Vanderbilt
Auburn isn't the fourth best team, but their schedule couldn't be much easier.
OM, Bama, State, & LSU twice and A&M and UK at home.
2. A&M
3. Arkansas
4. Auburn
5. Florida
6. UT
7. Georgia
8. Missouri
9. Alabama
10. Miss State
11. LSU
12. Carolina
13. Ole Miss
14. Vanderbilt
Auburn isn't the fourth best team, but their schedule couldn't be much easier.
OM, Bama, State, & LSU twice and A&M and UK at home.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:58 pm to mountain D values
quote:Eh their resume pretty much mirrors Vandy's from last year. And Bama has a step up that they didn't quite lose every game against decent competition (beat URI at home). As for bad losses, UCF at home is their worst considering the others are to Minnesota, Arizona, and Texas, and even UCF is a likely Top 100, NITish team.
Even if Bama go .500 in SEC play, they don’t have any great OOC wins, and have a couple very bad losses, and I don’t think they have the overall resume to get in as a 18-19 win team.
9-9 with a win over Oklahoma would put them in solid position. Their projected RPI at 18-13 is 39, and unless the committee is really serious about not using RPI anymore, that would be good enough for at least a First Four game.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 2:04 pm to GatorsGators
And I think everyone slotting Ole Miss and Vandy in at 13 and 14 is a bit lazy. Obviously the non-conference schedules were disasters for both but there's a reason a bunch had both as potential tourney teams preseason. I'd qualify both as sleepers at this point.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 2:14 pm to ImayGoLesMiles
quote:
LSU will surprise people this season
Truly could, this season is as hard to predict as I can remember. Litteraly 12 teams are vying for a tourney spot and we could easily end up with 7 or 8 at the end of it all. That win over Houston will be marquee if the Hogs keep playing well. We'll see, gotta play more consistent from here on for Y'all to make the tournament.
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