Matchups this Weekend that Could Swing SEC Games : UGA-TN & LSU-Mizzou

Keep in mind all of these numbers are adjusted for competition. For definitions see the following

Advanced Stat Glossary

For all Team Stats see the following

CFB Advanced Stat Profile - List


Opportunity Rate - This is the percentage of carries in which the offensive line "does its job" and produces at least five yards of rushing for the runner. (Generally speaking, the first five yards are considered the line's responsibility, the next five are split evenly between the runner and the line, and anything over 10 yards is all on the runner.)

Georgia Rush vs Tennesssee Rush Defense
- Georgia ranks 18th in Opportunity Rate (46.1% of time)
- Tennessee ranks 100th in Rush Defense Opportunity Rate (41.8% of time)
- Interestingly, even after a lot of people being down about Georgia's offensive line, they have still produced steady run numbers. While they have not always been efficient (76th Rush Success Rate) or good in 3rd and Shorts (101st in Power Success Rate), they have had relatively good success at getting 5+ yards a pop. Tennessee, on the other hand, has been good at stuffing teams in shorts (42nd Power Success Rate, 34th Stuff Rate) but has given up consistent chunks of 5+ yards. The wild card is obviously Chubb's health, but it will be interesting to see if Georgia can establish a consistent ground game to take some pressure off Eason and the pass blocking.



Standard Downs - First downs, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer, and fourth-and-4 or fewer. These are the downs in which the offense could conceivably either run or pass and therefore has an overall advantage over the defense. Offenses typically run about 60 percent of the time on standard downs.

Passing Downs - Second-and-8 or more, third-and-5 or more, or fourth-and-5 or more. These are downs in which passing is easily the most likely option for gaining the necessary yardage, and defenses hold the upper hand. Offenses typically throw about two-thirds of the time on passing downs.


Missouri Offense vs LSU Defense : Down and Distance

Missouri has put up very good pass numbers so far (18th Passing Success Rate) and LSU has had a solid pass defense (37th Defense Passing Success Rate). However, the big key with Missouri is staying ahead of the chains. See the difference in Missouri's success rates on Standard Downs and Passing Downs.

Standard Down Success Rate - 47th (49.3%)
Passing Down Success Rate - 70th (31.3%)

And then you have LSU, whose defense thrives on Passing Downs:

Standard Down : 16th (37.5%)
Passing Down : 15th (20.3%)

The problem is Missouri is a terrible rushing team (99th Success Rate, 87th Opportunity Rate) and LSU is a very solid rush defense (9th Success Rate, 14th Opportunity Rate). That means Lock is going to have to be locked in (semi pun intended) and on the money in early down situations to keep things moving. You have to think that Missouri will be forced to throw to set up the run and hope to keep the pass rushers away while also staying in manageable situations.

Missouri can make it a fair fight if they can stay ahead of the chains and keep out of 3rd and longs. However, if they are in a lot of 3rd and 8s then LSU is going to make havoc.