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re: Major tornado outbreak expected tomorrow
Posted on 3/1/12 at 1:23 pm to RollTide1987
Posted on 3/1/12 at 1:23 pm to RollTide1987
It has the potential to be bad, but Major maybe a stretch.
Instability looks more than supportive and shear is very high, but it won't be just supercells like a classic outbreak, but a mix of bowing segments/supercells. A strong tornado or two is not of the question though, at all. It will all depend on how the storm mode evolves. If the storms line up quickly, which is possible you'll see a more straight line wind event, but if cells remain discrete you could have a scary afternoon ahead considering the environment, but this should be a afternoon/evening event as after dark stabilization of the boundary layer will occur later in the evening, thus lessening the severe threat.
Instability looks more than supportive and shear is very high, but it won't be just supercells like a classic outbreak, but a mix of bowing segments/supercells. A strong tornado or two is not of the question though, at all. It will all depend on how the storm mode evolves. If the storms line up quickly, which is possible you'll see a more straight line wind event, but if cells remain discrete you could have a scary afternoon ahead considering the environment, but this should be a afternoon/evening event as after dark stabilization of the boundary layer will occur later in the evening, thus lessening the severe threat.
2
Posted on 3/1/12 at 1:24 pm to wdeinttown
quote:
I'm assuming it is mapping out the order in which the tornadoes occurred.
That's what I took it to mean.
Posted on 3/1/12 at 1:30 pm to Woopigsooie20
Pray and be prepared.
I went through two tornados last year. Today is when you take notice.
I went through two tornados last year. Today is when you take notice.
Posted on 3/1/12 at 1:37 pm to MFBATR
quote:
Today is when you take notice.
agreed. If people do not heed warnings then they are unprepared and just stupid.
This post was edited on 3/1/12 at 1:39 pm
Posted on 3/1/12 at 1:42 pm to MFBATR
quote:
Pray and be prepared.
I went through two tornados last year. Today is when you take notice.
This. I was in Tuscaloosa for the tornado last spring and it is something I never want to experience again. Be safe people.
Posted on 3/1/12 at 1:43 pm to wdeinttown
quote:This is correct.
I'm assuming it is mapping out the order in which the tornadoes occurred.
And the maps weren't meant to start a pissing match. They were to simply point out that it is as bad, if not worse, here than in tornado alley.
Also, food for thought, Dixie alley is the only place in the world with 2 distinct tornado seasons.
Posted on 3/1/12 at 2:47 pm to Woopigsooie20
quote:
It will all depend on how the storm mode evolves. If the storms line up quickly, which is possible you'll see a more straight line wind event, but if cells remain discrete you could have a scary afternoon ahead considering the environment
I know just enough about weather and weather terminology to sound like I know more than I do. I'd call it an interest in the same way people like to study geneology or Civil War history, etc. I say to say that I know that discrete storm cells are far more dangerous than bowing line segments that form "kinks" in a line and can produce spin up tornadoes. The part that has always confused me some is what mechanism in the atmosphere cause discrete cells to form as the main mode of convection and what ingredients inhibit the formation of discrete cells and a squall line instead?
It is scary when you see discrete individual super cells forming in such an unstable atmosphere. It's virtually gauranteed that each and every individual cell will be rotating and capable of producing a tornado. This is essentially what happened on April 27th. The cell that produced the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham tornado was totally uninhibited by any storms to its south and fed on warm dynamic inflow. If things evolve the same way tomorrow you can at the very least expect several tornado warnings.
Posted on 3/1/12 at 2:52 pm to Govt Tide
quote:
If things evolve the same way tomorrow you can at the very least expect several tornado warnings.
I'm sick and tired of all this severe weather.
At least I'll be home tomorrow and not at work.
Posted on 3/1/12 at 3:05 pm to Govt Tide
quote:
The part that has always confused me some is what mechanism in the atmosphere cause discrete cells to form as the main mode of convection and what ingredients inhibit the formation of discrete cells and a squall line instead?
Dry Lines and Frontal Boundaries (squall lines) vs. Warm Sectored Atmosphere and Daytime Heating (discrete cells)
Posted on 3/1/12 at 3:11 pm to AUnite
quote:
I'm sick and tired of all this severe weather.
At least I'll be home tomorrow and not at work.
I should have made the distinction between "tornado warnings" as opposed to "tornadoes" in my post. I meant that a lot of tornado warnings will be issued regardless of whether they actually touch down or not because discrete cells in an unstable environment are almost always rotating. The very nature of a "super cell" is that it rotates. The NWS tends to issue a warning on many of these that ultimately don't end up producing because of this rotation. In other words, don't freak out over it but do take any warning in your area seriously.
P.S. I'd also look back at gravy's comments about the La Nina fading. That's good news as that tends to lessen the general scope and severity of the severe weather we have in the Spring. The only downside is what we might gain in less severe weather could be given back somewhat with a higher likelihood of landfalling storms during hurricane season.
This post was edited on 3/1/12 at 3:13 pm
Posted on 3/1/12 at 3:19 pm to Govt Tide
Eastern Gulf of Mexico tends to see landfalling hurricanes in Neutral/El Nino to El Nino years (Alabama, Florida Coasts)
The Western Gulf (Texas/Louisiana) is typically spared during El Nino years due to the westerly shear.
The Western Gulf (Texas/Louisiana) is typically spared during El Nino years due to the westerly shear.
Posted on 3/1/12 at 3:23 pm to Ball Gravy
i don;t have to wait until tomorrow....i live in dothan,al and one touched down about 2 miles from my house about an hour ago!
Posted on 3/1/12 at 3:30 pm to tidefan408
Where at tidefan? One of our facilities is somewhat close to Flowers and I heard they were in a warning but that was the last I heard of anything.
Posted on 3/1/12 at 3:31 pm to Doldil
it touched down in slocomb and headed due east....about 4 miles from flowers
Posted on 3/1/12 at 3:33 pm to Doldil
I drove down to Hattiesburg MS via Tuscaloosa last Thursday and noticed the .5 mile wide area where it crosssed 20/59... sadly you could see BDS right in the middle of the pathway... cant believe the storm didnt make a direct hit on campus....
Posted on 3/1/12 at 3:33 pm to Govt Tide
quote:
Govt Tide
Thunderstorms scare the beejebus out of me by themselves. You add in a tornado warning or tornado watch and my nerves go through the roof.
Posted on 3/1/12 at 3:34 pm to AUnite
The tornado siren is really what gets my nerves going.
Posted on 3/1/12 at 3:37 pm to tidefan408
ah, thanks for the info. Sounds like the old folks will be safe then.
Posted on 3/1/12 at 3:39 pm to ACL11190
quote:
ACL
That's the icing on the cake as far as my nerves are concerned
quote:
Doldil
Hiya
Posted on 3/1/12 at 3:41 pm to Damn Good Dawg
quote:
what is crazy is not how bad each one is but how they are all reaching their plateaus at the same time
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