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re: Lunardi's Latest Bracketology

Posted on 2/20/12 at 11:59 am to
Posted by 1991UW
Seattle, WA
Member since Feb 2012
303 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 11:59 am to
quote:

God damn, you're stupid.


Look at your profile pic... are you gay?
Posted by Bryant91092
Member since Dec 2009
25251 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:00 pm to
The poster is a woman
Posted by 1991UW
Seattle, WA
Member since Feb 2012
303 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:02 pm to
quote:

The poster is a woman

doubtful
Posted by CatFan81
Decatur, GA
Member since May 2009
47188 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:02 pm to
quote:

Look at your profile pic... are you gay?


You better believe it. Flaming homosexual here. Or maybe I'm not a guy.

Besides, even if I was a gay male, I'd know more about basketball than you. What do you have against homosexuals anyway?

Like I said, you're stupid.
Posted by Bryant91092
Member since Dec 2009
25251 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:02 pm to
Okay I lied. You caught me.
Posted by busey
First Coast, Florida
Member since Feb 2010
22958 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:03 pm to
quote:

The poster is a woman

doubtful


Being from Seattle, I can see how you may be skeptical of what is or is not a woman.
Posted by jddawg58
Saban Nation
Member since Oct 2011
2157 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:09 pm to
quote:

When I look at Bama's quality wins I can't help but laugh and then say who the f are these teams. I guess Bama did a good job in schedule but beat absoultely 0 of the good teams in their schedule. A couple wins against no names with I guess decent RPI? After the Florida mauling, I believe Arkansas may have lost that home court thunder. So if Bama can't win that one then no way they get in.



Arky 17-10 Conf 5-7 RPI 87(CBSrpi) BPI 96
KenPom 113 Sagarin 100 RPI top 50 2-5
RPI 50-100 2-2 Best Wins Mich 14 VDY 27
Worst Losses OKL 117 Houston 223
Arky road 0-7 Neutral site 0-1


Bama 17-9 Conf 6-6 RPI 40 (CBSrpi) BPI 27
KenPom 28 Sagarin 28 RPI top 50 2-5
RPI 50-100 5-3 Best wins Wich ST 15 Purdue 49
Worst losses Dayton 72 USC 180
Bama road record 3-5 Neutral site 3-1

If Bama goes 8-8 in conference play they get in. Arky is going to NIT. Bama has resume thanks largely to OOC games scheduled by Grant. Resume would be better if Georgetown doesn't hit three at the buzzer and if Maryland, Ga Tech and Okla ST were better this year.

Bama has just as good of wins as ARKY but Arky has 7 wins over teams with rpi over 200. Bama has two wins against 200 rpi teams. Combine that with no wins away from Bud Walton and you have high RPI, Kenpom, Sagarin.

Arkansas can't improve numbers enough even with a win over a depleted Bama team.
This post was edited on 2/20/12 at 12:12 pm
Posted by ottothewise
Member since Sep 2008
32094 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:21 pm to
quote:

I'd much rather have a 10 than an 8 or a 9.



no shite sherlock. you dont have to play the #1 in the 2nd round.

I was looking at "my" school, Murray and noticed that they are #6 seed in this version and playing a falling-apart UCONN at #11.
almost a gimme. I bet they would love it if it happens that way.

I suppose this bracket is somewhat close to guessing which ones will be in or out. I doubt its right about the actual seedings though. still weeks to go.
Posted by busey
First Coast, Florida
Member since Feb 2010
22958 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

I was looking at "my" school, Murray


I know you went there (along with like 5 other schools), but I somehow doubt you gave a shite until this year.
Posted by jddawg58
Saban Nation
Member since Oct 2011
2157 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:37 pm to
quote:

So you're 2-6 vs tourney teams. Arkansas has 3 wins over tourney teams I think, and 2 are top 7 seeds. Stand by while I book my tickets to the dance.


Only dance Arky is going to attend is one spelled NIT. A win over Bama will do little to raise your profile. You can't overcome a season where you don't have a single road or neutral site win, you have 7 wins over teams with an rpi over 200 (congratulations on winning the SWAC) and you are 4-7 against top 100 rpi teams. Think of all the money you save as you will play home games in the NIT.
Posted by lwlsu96
Member since Oct 2011
5404 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:38 pm to
Where is LSU in this mix?
Posted by 1991UW
Seattle, WA
Member since Feb 2012
303 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

Where is LSU in this mix?

Out for now... but if they win out and do well in the SEC Tourney there is a chance...
Posted by Bryant91092
Member since Dec 2009
25251 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

Where is LSU in this mix?



Still not even close.
Posted by lwlsu96
Member since Oct 2011
5404 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:41 pm to
quote:

Still not even close.


Assuming we win out?
Posted by Bryant91092
Member since Dec 2009
25251 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:43 pm to
quote:

Assuming we win out?



It's hard to tell until he releases his S-curve on Tuesday or Wednesday. Then you'll be able to see how far back you are. So as of now, I can't give you an answer. But as of last Wednesday, LSU wasn't listed in the first 87 teams with a chance.
Posted by Crede15
Member since Jun 2009
17249 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:45 pm to
The good news for LSU is that they could win out, the bad news is that three of those games are against teams outside of the top 100 RPI. The one team inside the top 100 is Ole Miss who are somewhere in the 70's, and considering that game is at Ole Miss they'd have to be the favorite.

I don't know how much LSU's RPI would improve if they go 3-1, or even 4-0.
Posted by bbap
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2006
96858 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

The one team inside the top 100 is Ole Miss who are somewhere in the 70's,


low 60s. i agree with your overall point but it moved up 5 spots after beating a woeful south carolina team. so i have given up predicting how it will move.

also, ole miss will definitely be favored over lsu.
This post was edited on 2/20/12 at 12:48 pm
Posted by lwlsu96
Member since Oct 2011
5404 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:48 pm to
quote:

I don't know how much LSU's RPI would improve if they go 3-1, or even 4-0.


Well right now our RPI is 63, Ole Miss' RPI is 60. It think if we win out we may be in lower 50's higher 40's?
Posted by Crede15
Member since Jun 2009
17249 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:49 pm to
yeah, I forgot I was looking at projected RPI's, not current ones.

last year LSU and Auburn had really terrible RPI's, we beat LSU and moved up like four spots, beat Auburn and dropped like 5. Granted I think Auburn's was worse but it wasn't so much worse that you'd expect that. I know it has so much to do with everything else going on in college basketball but I've given up trying to figure out where RPI's are going.
Posted by jddawg58
Saban Nation
Member since Oct 2011
2157 posts
Posted on 2/20/12 at 12:51 pm to
quote:

Where is LSU in this mix?


If LSU wins out (10-6 in SEC) then they will be where Bama was last year. Bama was left out despite going 12-4 in conference. Bama had an 80 rpi last year. LSU's will be lower, presently rpi is 63. You have an impressive win over Marquette rpi 8. Your next best win is Bama with an rpi of 40. You don't have anyone remaining on your schedule with a lower rpi unless you face KY,VDY, or FL in the SECT.

If you win out, you are on the bubble, will depend on the outcome of conference tournaments, et cet. Likely to go down to the wire.
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