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Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:35 am to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
How can Alabama be 100% with their loss to Missouri?
I'd guess that the best win in college basketball to date (@ Gonzaga by double digits) probably cancels that out. Plus the other Top 5 NET win (Houston) and the other Top 15 win (Tennessee) along with all the other Q1/Q2 wins, #2 Strength of Schedule and 0 Q4 games played.
Texas A&M (14-2)
Q1 : 0-1
Q2 : 2-1
Q3 : 6-0
Q4 : 6-0
Q1/2 : 2-2
Q3/4 : 12-0
Alabama (11-6)
Q1 : 4-4
Q2 : 3-1
Q3 : 4-1
Q4 : 0-0
Q1/2 : 7-5
Q3/4 : 4-1
This post was edited on 1/18/22 at 11:39 am
Posted on 1/18/22 at 12:40 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Chance of getting into the Tournament according to TeamRankings.com:
100%- Auburn
100%- LSU
100%- Kentucky
100%- Alabama
99%- Tennessee
Alabama has LSU (x2), Baylor, @ Auburn, UK (x2), Ark, MSU and aTm left. I wholly agree that they probably do make it, and it is a high probability, but their trajectory right now is for shite, and that's a damn hard schedule.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 12:52 pm to AU6X
quote:
Alabama has LSU (x2), Baylor, @ Auburn, UK (x2), Ark, MSU and aTm left. I wholly agree that they probably do make it, and it is a high probability, but their trajectory right now is for shite, and that's a damn hard schedule.
I assumed that meant as of today we'd 100% be in. We definitely are not a 100% lock to make the tournament.
We've got Missouri, @ Georgia, Arkansas, State, @ Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Texas A&M left that should be games we are favored in. If we go 5-2 in that stretch that would put us at 16-8 with 7 SEC wins. We'd probably need to win 1 game out of the others (LSU, @ LSU, Baylor, @ Auburn, Kentucky, @ Kentucky) to make it.
If we finish 17-14 (8-10) and win our 1st round SECT game we'll be in with our resume and schedule. I'd prefer not to make it that close, but we might
Posted on 1/18/22 at 12:54 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I'd guess that the best win in college basketball to date (@ Gonzaga by double digits) probably cancels that out. Plus the other Top 5 NET win (Houston) and the other Top 15 win (Tennessee) along with all the other Q1/Q2 wins, #2 Strength of Schedule and 0 Q4 games played.
You misunderstand my post. I wasn't asking why Alabama was a lock and A&M wasn't. I was asking how Alabama was 100% given how they have performed on the road. I'll buy 95% or even 99%, but 100%?
Posted on 1/18/22 at 12:55 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
You misunderstand my post. I wasn't asking why Alabama was a lock and A&M wasn't. I was asking how Alabama was 100% given how they have performed on the road. I'll buy 95% or even 99%, but 100%?
In terms of moving forward we definitely are not 100% (or 99% or even 95%). As of today we'd be 100%. But moving forward I'd put it much more at like 75-85%.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 12:55 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
You misunderstand my post. I wasn't asking why Alabama was a lock and A&M wasn't. I was asking how Alabama was 100% given how they have performed on the road. I'll buy 95% or even 99%, but 100%?
Their NET is 24, not sure if anyone with a NET that good has not been selected to the NCAAT. Maybe high 20s in NET and definitely a handful in the 30s, but Top 25 in NET = in the tournament no question
This post was edited on 1/18/22 at 12:57 pm
Posted on 1/18/22 at 12:56 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
Their NET is 24, not sure if anyone with a NET that good has not been selected to the NCAAT.
2004-2005 A&M was a 21 and wasn't selected.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 12:58 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
Their NET is 24, not sure if anyone with a NET that good has not been selected to the NCAAT. Maybe high 20s in NET and definitely a handful in the 30s, but Top 25 in NET = in the tournament no question
And we have a very simple and easy to compare to current/past teams resume - not a weird one that some teams have where it's hard to figure out how to judge them (bad league teams, mid-majors with high computer scores but empty resumes, teams with 1-2 upset wins and 4-5 terrible losses, etc).
- Hardest schedule in country
- 2 elite wins (@ Gonzaga, Houston)
- handful of very good wins (Tennessee, Miami, @ Florida)
- handful of solid mid-major wins (South Dakota St, La Tech, Oakland, Drake)
- handful of losses to good, not great teams (Iona, Davidson)
- 1 terrible loss (@ Missouri)
Obviously losing another game to Missouri or to Georgia/South Carolina would change the equation, but at this point we've got a pretty good resume in which our only threat is just losing too many games (which is possible if we don't start making some shots).
This post was edited on 1/18/22 at 1:01 pm
Posted on 1/18/22 at 12:59 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
2004-2005 A&M was a 21 and wasn't selected.
For starters the NET didnt exist back then
Posted on 1/18/22 at 1:03 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
12-seed: Miss St. (4th to last team in)
I feel like we are being disrespected. Most of our losses were without Tolu Smith our best big man. We are a different team with him and we had him back for Alabama. None of our losses are bad losses and we now have 2 wins over Q1/Q2 teams. If we beat Florida tomorrow I hope we start getting some respect I think we should be a 6-8 seed unless we just crash and burn
Posted on 1/18/22 at 1:05 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
100%- Alabama
This seems redundant for a team who is 2-3 in conference and lost to Missouri
Posted on 1/18/22 at 1:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
In terms of moving forward we definitely are not 100% (or 99% or even 95%). As of today we'd be 100%. But moving forward I'd put it much more at like 75-85%.
If that's the right interpretation, why wouldn't TN also be 100% -- it is currently 13th in NET. I realize not a big difference between 100% and 99%, but bama, just like ut, is shaky right now. I think both would have to crater to be left out of the tourney, but UT's remaining schedule is multiples easier than bama's.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 1:05 pm to deltaland
quote:
None of our losses are bad losses.
Louisville, Minnesota and Ole Miss aren't exactly good losses. They aren't disasters, but none of those teams are going to sniff the NCAAT. Your only win over a current NCAAT bound team is against us by 2 at home. And we're kind of a disaster right now.
State is a good team but they need to beat some other good teams.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 1:08 pm to deltaland
quote:
This seems redundant for a team who is 2-3 in conference and lost to Missouri
Alabama has the hardest schedule in the country and more Q1/Q2 wins than almost anyone in the country (7; only Auburn and Wisconsin have more).
As of today, Alabama isn't even close to being on the bubble.
This post was edited on 1/18/22 at 1:09 pm
Posted on 1/18/22 at 1:22 pm to BHMKyle
LSU blowing the Arky game almost guarantees no SEC Title for us. Our SEC schedule is absolutely brutal... our double games are Tennessee, Kentucky, Arky, Bama, and Aggy... and we didn't get Auburn at home lol
Posted on 1/18/22 at 1:27 pm to ForeverLSU5
quote:
our double games are Tennessee, Kentucky, Arky, Bama, and Aggy... and we didn't get Auburn at home lol
Yea LSU might have gotten the toughest SEC schedule this year.
- double games all with top half teams
- road only with Auburn
- home games with Georgia/Missouri (meaning you don't get an "easy" road game)
Posted on 1/18/22 at 2:14 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Summer of George has a good grasp of his teams chances.
The committee loves to reward teams that create good games.
(VS Gonzaga and VS Houston and VS Memphis.)
When you win those games - you are essentially a lock to make the tourney unless you implode.
The committee loves to reward teams that create good games.
(VS Gonzaga and VS Houston and VS Memphis.)
When you win those games - you are essentially a lock to make the tourney unless you implode.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 2:15 pm to SECdragonmaster
quote:
unless you implode
Posted on 1/18/22 at 2:16 pm to BHMKyle
Lunardo retardo is trippin balls if he think Arkansas would be left out. Psshht.
38 NET doesnt get left out.
38 NET doesnt get left out.
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