re: LSU vs GA score breakdowns

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Common Opponents:

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LSU- 181
UGa- 94

So about half


LSU 93
UGA 50

so about half

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Notre dame almost lost to VT.

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2 less inches and you’re almost a woman.

4 more days and you'll be in the pound

That is the most meaningless BS. So Lsu beats A&M by 43 at home and Auburn beats them by 8 in College Station. And LSU only beats Auburn by 3???? At home??? All that matters is who shows up and plays good on Saturday. If they both do, it will be a close game. If not....

LSU 41
Georgia 9

LSU will dominate. GA’s offense has shown itself to have major issues. GA’s defense will break due to their offense’s inability to put numerous drives together. FWIW Georgia is susceptible to the pass; they just haven’t faced any elite offenses all year. On the season they only gave up 186 YPG, but that is skewed by their overall weaker schedule. Here’s some passing stats by some teams on their schedule that actually had any kind of pulse on offense:

ND 275
Tenn 273
Aub 245
A&M 275
Fla 257

LSU will throw for 340+

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LSU beat 3 top 15 teams same as UGA.

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But you lost to a 4-8 South Carolina team because your offense sucks. Weather or not, UGA followed that up by passing for 35 yards against UK. Just putrid. This game will be similar to the LSU/A&M game...domination. If by some chance this game is close, how do you feel about Kirby? He’s wet the bed in big games before.

It doesn’t really work that way, though (at least as much as the transitive property CAN work in football). Yeah, the relative differences in scoring offense/defense may look similar, but a) they’re not actually equivalent percentages, and b) even if they were, the absolute difference renders them functionally incomparable. The absolute differential for points scored is far greater than the absolute differential for points allowed, so much so that it equates to an average MOV over these common opponents that’s twice as great for LSU as it is for Georgia (22 ppg vs. 11 ppg).

I mean, we could play with these numbers all day and twist them to fit whatever narrative we pleased. For instance, UGA fans might say that because UGA’s defense allowed only 53.8% as many points to common opponents as LSU allowed, then this statistic would somehow translate to UGA being equally effective against LSU. The problem there is that even if UGA actually held LSU to 53.8% of their average offensive output against these same 4 teams, that still equates to a slightly higher point total for LSU (around 24.3 points vs. UGA’s unadjusted average of 23.5 ppg).

I can say that LSU’s scoring offense is so potent that it seems like their scoring defense merely needs to be adequate to win any given game, and that even the stingiest opponents shouldn’t expect to stop them on every series — two subjective conclusions that were generally borne out in the regular season. It would logically follow that of the two teams, UGA seems to have a much slimmer margin for error in pursuit of the SEC Championship. In the end, though, there isn’t a single metric or set of metrics that offers us the ability to precisely compare apples to apples here. Hence why we decide the games on the field.

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UGA will not score 30

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LSU won't score 44.

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LSU-43
UGA-29

Georgia 27
LSU 24

44-24 tigers
LSU scores 27 in the first half and goes into halftime with a 20 point lead.