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re: LSU fans predctions

Posted on 11/23/22 at 11:42 am to
Posted by DawgsLife
Member since Jun 2013
58915 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 11:42 am to
quote:

If we drop the SEC championship game I want the Orange Bowl.



Correct me if I am wrong. Orange would pit you against Clemson if they don't make the playoffs, right? That would be an interesting match up.
Posted by DawgsLife
Member since Jun 2013
58915 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 11:51 am to
quote:

I think the committee will look the other way at the FSU loss if LSU were to beat UGA.

I tend to think so, too, since it was so early in the season and LSU has really come on strong.
quote:

The issue would be if TCU is undefeated then how can you ignore the bad loss to TN at home? LSU would likely beat TCU, and maybe by a decent margin but would guess TCU prevents LSU from controlling its own destiny as things stand today.
Interesting viewpoint....and I can't say I disagree. However, with LSU playing so well, might the committee choose LSU and leave Georgia out? (Saying this assuming TCU, USC wins out and OSU/Michigan wins their conference game) It would be hard NOT to take LSU if they beat Georgia and everybody else won out.
Posted by Wolfhound45
Hanging with Chicken in Lurkistan
Member since Nov 2009
120000 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 11:53 am to
quote:

If LSU beats UGA then LSU is a conference champion.

Correct. A two loss champion.

I am fine where we are. If we get in then do our best to win out. If we do not then do our best at whatever bowl game we get. For the first time in a long (long) time I am comfortable with what our coaching staff is doing.
Posted by DawgsLife
Member since Jun 2013
58915 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 11:56 am to
quote:

2. Don't the Bowls have at least some rights to pick a team? Because the sugar bowl isn't really fond of LSU.




They do. I might not have this correct, but i think it is something like:

Sugar #1 SEC team not in playoffs
Cotton gets an SEC team
Orange gets best ACC team not in playoffs and...well, here's Wiki:
For the secondary tie-ins, the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and the Big Ten Conference are guaranteed three appearances each, and the University of Notre Dame can play in a maximum of two games, but is not guaranteed any appearances. The ACC team's opponent in a given year will be the highest-ranked available team from the SEC, Big Ten, and Notre Dame, subject to several constraints: the SEC and Big Ten champions are always excluded, and when an SEC and/or Big Ten team qualifies for the College Football Playoff, the next available team would also be excluded from participating in the Orange Bowl due to contractual obligations with the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl, respectively.
Posted by CrabInMyShoeMouth
Member since Jul 2016
2486 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 12:05 pm to
quote:

Interesting viewpoint....and I can't say I disagree. However, with LSU playing so well, might the committee choose LSU and leave Georgia out? (Saying this assuming TCU, USC wins out and OSU/Michigan wins their conference game) It would be hard NOT to take LSU if they beat Georgia and everybody else won out.



UGA could possibly be left out under that scenario but I have a hard time seeing only one SEC team making the CFP if it isn't UGA. I tend to think UGA has done everything to secure their spot barring a monumental collapse to GT. The flip side of that scenario going against USC is the watered down perception of the PAC 12 schedule, I think a PAC 12 teams needs to be undefeated with an average OOC schedule. Although ND would inflate that resume.
This post was edited on 11/23/22 at 12:06 pm
Posted by Krampus
Member since Nov 2018
5207 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 12:09 pm to
quote:

They just played #16 UCLA while LSU played UAB at home. Like I said, if they were going to jump LSU, this was the week to do it. As I've also said a few times in this thread, this could change if USC beats both ND and Oregon convincingly, but I don't see that happening.


Two points:

1. They're USC, an all time blue blood that college football has been desperate to revive for nearly 20 years.

2. A 1 loss Pac 12 champion USC, with wins over the #9, #15, #18, and #21 teams in the current CFP rankings, and a single 1-point loss to the #14 team...

Is ONE HUNDRED PERCENT getting into the playoff.

Only a damn fool with blinders on would ever actually think otherwise. This has nothing to do with LSU. There is just no way that USC team get left out. Ever. No matter what else happens around the country.
Posted by That LSU Guy
The beach
Member since Jul 2008
11408 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 12:11 pm to
On paper UGA should win, but BK has me believing we are going to be competitive.

After the last two years, I'm just exited to be in this position. Kelly has proved a lot of haters wrong in year one.



Lets take care of 4&7 first.
Posted by Krampus
Member since Nov 2018
5207 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 12:15 pm to
quote:

going against USC is the watered down perception of the PAC 12 schedule


Pac 12 has more teams in the current CFP top 25 than the SEC. 6 Pac teams, only 5 SEC teams.

And USC played 5 of those 6 ranked Pac teams, plus #15 ND.

Like it or not, that perception does not exist this year. Pac is solid in the eyes of the committee.
Posted by CrabInMyShoeMouth
Member since Jul 2016
2486 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 12:21 pm to
There's really nothing impressive about beating a rival in UCLA and losing to Utah. Not to mention one possession wins against Zona, Cal, and Oregon St. Style points, winning margin, etc. matter.

Utah has one good win and their highly inflated preseason ranking gave other teams in the conference a crutch for boosting their resumes. The public perception of brands like USC, Oregon, and UCLA will continue to receive favoritism in rankings for beating really bad football schools by unimpressive margins.
Posted by CrabInMyShoeMouth
Member since Jul 2016
2486 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

Pac 12 has more teams in the current CFP top 25 than the SEC. 6 Pac teams, only 5 SEC teams.

And USC played 5 of those 6 ranked Pac teams, plus #15 ND.

Like it or not, that perception does not exist this year. Pac is solid in the eyes of the committee.


Being ranked in the top 25 is not the same as the top 4. USC has a good case for making the playoff if the finish out with one loss but the PAC 12 teams you mention just aren't great football teams playing in conference with inferior talent from top to bottom.
Posted by CBandits82
Lurker since May 2008
Member since May 2012
54086 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 12:36 pm to
quote:

Not feeling it. Think they want conference champions this year (just a gut feeling). If Clemson and USC are one loss champions they get in over us. Just an opinion.

Lot of football to be played on rivalry weekend.




They cant leave out the SEC Champion that just beat the #1 team.

The committee just showed that by having us over USC last night we are in if we win out.

They just told us. USC isnt gonna jump us if we dont lose, they didnt jump us last night.
Posted by Gulf Coast Tiger
Ms Gulf Coast
Member since Jan 2004
18662 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 12:40 pm to
I would be shocked if Georgia isn't in the playoffs
Posted by ThePoo
Work
Member since Jan 2007
60601 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 12:41 pm to
quote:

They just told us. USC isnt gonna jump us if we dont lose, they didnt jump us last night.
I think this is where a lot of people are disagreeing

I think they are telling us USC has an argument for 5 but we need to see a little more from them

I think it is entirely possible they could jump us as early as next week if they beat another ranked team (especially if they do it convincingly) and we just go through the motions vs A&M. You may have to re-jump them with a win over UGA which may be difficult if they dominate their championship game and we scrape by the skin of our teeth in ours

But who knows, I think there are no certainties or guarantees in regards to LSU and USC's position even if we both win out
This post was edited on 11/23/22 at 12:42 pm
Posted by LSUNV
In the woods or on the water
Member since Feb 2011
22422 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 12:44 pm to
Most of us are just happy with the progress that has been made! We are way ahead of schedule and are playing with house money at this point! No matter what happens next this season has been a success! This is the way most rational LSU fans feel
Posted by JColtF
Lake Charles, LA
Member since Aug 2008
4749 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 12:45 pm to
1) If LSU beats Georgia we'll be the first 2 loss playoff team. The SEC Champion has never been left out of the Playoffs and we'd have the best resume by far.

2) I think we'd make an NY6 Bowl.

Either way I'm thrilled with how this season has turned out
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
68212 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 12:46 pm to
If LSU wins, they are in. If they lose, Cotton Bowl maybe?
Posted by Krampus
Member since Nov 2018
5207 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 1:12 pm to
quote:

the PAC 12 teams you mention just aren't great football teams playing in conference with inferior talent from top to bottom.


100% disagree. This isn't the Pac of 5 years ago.

USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington are absolutely capable of beating any team in the country on any given day.

Meanwhile, in the SEC: A&M, Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida, Miss St., all shite the bed to different degrees. Auburn is bad. And even Tenn., and Ole Miss are crumbling down the stretch.

SEC doesn't have the strongest conference argument in the bag like we usually do.

There's UGA on top. Then LSU, Bama, and Tennessee as pretty solid teams but with some significant weaknesses. And that's pretty much it.

I know most on here will never take off their SEC glasses to see it, but the Pac really might be genuinely stronger than the SEC this year. Watch their games, they're good.
Posted by ThePoo
Work
Member since Jan 2007
60601 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

, but the Pac really might be genuinely stronger than the SEC this year.
wouldn't go that far I don't think

The SEC has 4 teams I would favor over just about anyone in the pac 12 healthy on a neutral field, and the bottom of the pac 12 is straight dog doo-doo. Not talking 1-2 teams but more like 5 teams that are straight arse.. Like texas A&M or worse kinda arse

where they may have us is in that UCLA to oregon state tier vs our Ole Miss to Florida/UK tier but even that would not be by a large margin I do not think
Posted by Krampus
Member since Nov 2018
5207 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 1:37 pm to
Honest non-trolling question: have you watched USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington much this year?

They are playing really really solid ball. Their speed and execution is what we normally see in the SEC. Pac has really stepped their game up, and I expect they're going to put a lot more players into the NFL than they have been over the last 10-15 years.
Posted by cyarrr
Prairieville
Member since Jun 2017
3349 posts
Posted on 11/23/22 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

1 loss Pac 12 champion USC, with wins over the #9, #15, #18, and #21 teams in the current CFP rankings


Current being the key here.

If USC wins out, #9 Oregon will drop out of the top 10 and #15 Notre Dame will drop towards the bottom of the top 25. It’s possible USC will have no top 15 wins after the final poll is released.

Meanwhile, LSU would still have wins over a top 10 Alabama and likely top 5 UGA from that same final poll.
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