Started By
Message
0
Posted on 10/22/24 at 6:20 pm to Chicken
Not to defend Sagarin's rating, but you do have to understand how it works.
Sagarin relies HEAVILY on the final point spreads. Because of that there's a huge difference between winning or losing a game close and winning or losing in blowout fashion.
While it may not sound right, it makes sense given Sagarin's formula is designed for betting. In that sense a 1 point home win isn't viewed much differently than a 1 point road loss against the same team when determining their strength to predict future games.
Think about it... if Oregon is 1 point better at home, is it a stretch to think OSU would be better at a neutral site or at home? If you're going to bet on a game, you'd probably view it that way if they had another matchup at a different location down the road.
Sagarin relies HEAVILY on the final point spreads. Because of that there's a huge difference between winning or losing a game close and winning or losing in blowout fashion.
While it may not sound right, it makes sense given Sagarin's formula is designed for betting. In that sense a 1 point home win isn't viewed much differently than a 1 point road loss against the same team when determining their strength to predict future games.
Think about it... if Oregon is 1 point better at home, is it a stretch to think OSU would be better at a neutral site or at home? If you're going to bet on a game, you'd probably view it that way if they had another matchup at a different location down the road.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 6:27 pm to DawginSC
quote:Sorry, but it makes no sense...I mean, LSU has one less loss than Ole Miss, beat them head to head, and has a harder schedule.
Not to defend Sagarin's rating, but you do have to understand how it works.
Ole Miss was favored by 15 over Kentucky.
Notre Dame has the worst loss of any team in the top 25...and they are 5th? His poll loves ND despite their mediocre schedule and brutal loss.
This post was edited on 10/22/24 at 6:30 pm
Posted on 10/22/24 at 6:31 pm to Farmer1906
OM being ahead of UGA is an instant retard alert
Posted on 10/22/24 at 6:41 pm to Chicken
quote:
Sorry, but it makes no sense...I mean, LSU has one less loss than Ole Miss, beat them head to head, and has a harder schedule.
Notre Dame has the worst loss of any team in the top 25...and they are 5th? His poll loves ND despite their mediocre schedule and brutal loss.
Again, Ole Miss's loss to LSU is by 3 points on the road in OT. From a betting perspective, that suggests an Ole Miss win an a neutral site or in Ole Miss if you assume home field gives ANY point advantage to a team. Even 1 point more for Ole Miss in regulation turns that game from a loss to a win for them. Since the point of the Sagarin rating is BETTING rather than RANKING a close (3 points or less) road loss effectively is viewed as a tie when ranking the teams, not a loss. Because if they played the same at a neutral site or at the other team's stadium, it would have gone the other way (according to the logic they're using).
The other part working for them is that they've basically blown out every team they've beaten. Closest win was a 24 point win over SC. Meanwhile LSU's wins were closer. 3 points over SC. 23 over a cupcake. 17 over UCLA.
While I'm NOT defending the weight Sagarin puts on point spread... it's the entire basis of his ranking system. With no other data if team A lost by 1 point to team B on the road, and team C won by 3 points over team B at home, he'd rank them in the order of A, then B, then C. Even though A would be 0-1, B would be 1-1 and C would be 1-0. All because the margins of victory weren't high enough to account for home field advantage.
TLDR - His formula view's LSU's win over Ole Miss as a loss. Because you were tied in regulation at home, the math treats it as a loss at a neutral site.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 6:58 pm to DawginSC
Sagarin only gives the home team a 2.69 point advantage...so LSU still wins on a neutral site.
quote:and 24 points over Arkansas on the road...
Meanwhile LSU's wins were closer. 3 points over SC. 23 over a cupcake. 17 over UCLA.
This post was edited on 10/22/24 at 7:00 pm
Posted on 10/22/24 at 7:05 pm to Chicken
Is Massey really better? 2 loss Bama ahead of UT that beat them and has a better record
Posted on 10/22/24 at 7:07 pm to Chicken
Saggy Mantits and MassiveVag need to be taken down a notch or two.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 7:17 pm to Chicken
quote:
Sagarin only gives the home team a 2.69 point advantage...so LSU still wins on a neutral site.
No, because it was an OT game, which means it was tied in regulation. Which means Ole Miss wins by 2 in regulation at a neutral site.
Again, Sagarin isn't about "who's better" it's about predicting who's likely to win a neutral site matchup.
His ratings say that right now Ole Miss should be a 1 point favorite at a neutral site based on this season over LSU. So if that game happened and Ole Miss was favored by more than 1, he thinks you should bet on LSU. If LSU were favored at all you should bet for Ole Miss.
quote:
and 24 points over Arkansas on the road.
Which is equal to Ole Miss's CLOSEST win. 24 points over SC on the road.
Again, you can disagree with his formula. But just realize it's all about point spread in games. Close losses hurt very little with Sagarin. That's why a team with a 1 point road loss is #1 ahead of an undefeated team who beat them.
His formula suggests OSU would beat Oregon by 2 points at a neutral site. Given Oregon won by 1 point at home... that feels pretty accurate to me.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 7:18 pm to DawginSC
quote:where does it say that he goes by the score at the end of regulation for overtime games?
No, because it was an OT game, which means it was tied in regulation. Which means Ole Miss wins by 2 in regulation at a neutral site.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 7:23 pm to DawginSC
quote:I will give him that one, but not Texas over Georgia, Bama over Tennessee and Ole Miss over LSU...who has one more loss with an easier schedule!
His formula suggests OSU would beat Oregon by 2 points at a neutral site. Given Oregon won by 1 point at home... that feels pretty accurate to me.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 7:25 pm to Chicken
quote:
Sagarin only gives the home team a 2.69 point advantage...so LSU still wins on a neutral site.
But they don't in regulation. Didn't that game go to overtime? Perhaps that plays a role with HFA.. I'm not saying I agree with it, just trying to justify a possible explanation.
eta: apparently this was already mentioned.. but I agree with this thought process
It also means that he likely views the Kentucky game as a loss for Georgia since I'm sure they were favored by quite a bit..
This post was edited on 10/22/24 at 7:28 pm
Posted on 10/22/24 at 7:34 pm to Chicken
5-2 Bama with a loss to effing Vandy about LSU. I see what you are up too.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 7:41 pm to Chicken
Best 4 win team in the country!
Posted on 10/22/24 at 7:51 pm to Chicken
quote:
I will give him that one, but not Texas over Georgia, Bama over Tennessee and Ole Miss over LSU...who has one more loss with an easier schedule!
Texas over UGA isn't about the one game, but rather the season.
UGA is +113 in scoring margin this year. Texas is +206.
UGA isn't blowing people out this year, so in Sagarin's ratings which are predominantly calculated using scoring margin, UGA suffers.
1 point win over UK on the road (counted more like a 4 point neutral site win). 10 point win over MSU at home (counted more like a 7 point NS win). 18 point home win over AU (counted more like a 15 point NS win).
These are anchors on UGA's rating for Sagarin.
Texas on the other hand has blown out their opponents in wins, even if they aren't great. Their closest win was 19 points on the road against Michigan.
Effectively UGA and Texas are tied in Sagarin's ratings. 92.55 vs 92.54.
While the head to head suggest that's way off, the reality is UGA hasn't exactly been piling up points against their lesser opponents. And that matters for the math of Sagarin's formula.
And it should if you're looking at UGA being favored by 3 TD's over a lesser team and trying to figure out if you should bet the favorite. It may not be a good idea with UGA this season.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 7:55 pm to BigBro
quote:
It also means that he likely views the Kentucky game as a loss for Georgia since I'm sure they were favored by quite a bit..
It's not about being favored but rather home/away.
UGA played UK on the road. So their 1 point win is viewed more like a 4 point neutral site win or a 6-7 point home win (yes I know it's 2.69 or whatever, but you can't score a portion of a point).
UGA's 10 point win over MSU at home isn't viewed that well either. It's more like a 7 point neutral site win or a 4-5 point road win.
Page 2 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News