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re: Is the SEC pretty much guaranteed 2 super regionals this year?

Posted on 4/8/13 at 4:43 pm to
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
72388 posts
Posted on 4/8/13 at 4:43 pm to
quote:

They also look at final polls


Polls are completely meaningless in baseball.

The committee looks at your full resume, not where you finish in a poll. Polls in baseball are merely jeering things for fans to bicker over.

I'd much rather have a Top 10 RPI and be around #20 in the polls than Top 10 in the polls and around #20 in RPI by the end of a season.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
72388 posts
Posted on 4/8/13 at 4:51 pm to
quote:

LSU had a 14-16 conference record that year


13-17
Posted by ProjectP2294
West St. Louis County
Member since May 2007
79062 posts
Posted on 4/8/13 at 4:54 pm to
quote:

Every year it's something different with the committee.


This is my biggest issue with the committee. They won't acknowledge obvious bias, but instead will give bullshite reasons as to why they didn't pick certain teams, and the reasons will vary from team to team and year to year.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
72388 posts
Posted on 4/8/13 at 4:56 pm to
quote:

This is my biggest issue with the committee. They won't acknowledge obvious bias, but instead will give bullshite reasons as to why they didn't pick certain teams, and the reasons will vary from team to team and year to year.



That being said I have never heard them say rankings matter. It's always "played towards end of season" "away performance" "top team performance" "conference record" etc....
Posted by engie
Member since Jan 2012
8953 posts
Posted on 4/8/13 at 5:20 pm to
quote:

LSU and Vandy are neck and neck. I am assuming the second place team will get a Super if they finish 22-8 or better, which would be a 11-7 finish for either team.

Both teams are playing so well I would hope that both would be guaranteed a top 8 spot if they finish decently.


The first 2 are locked in IMO...

Arky is going to struggle to get a national seed with their RPI situation.

Lowest national seed RPI by year:
2012 - #10 South Carolina
2011 - #12 Texas
2010 - #10 Louisville

That said, I expect them to host...
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177509 posts
Posted on 4/8/13 at 5:29 pm to
They definitely look at series record. LSU won the SEC last season which generally locks you into a national seed and we barely got one because of how many series LSU lost.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
72388 posts
Posted on 4/8/13 at 5:39 pm to
quote:

They definitely look at series record. LSU won the SEC last season which generally locks you into a national seed and we barely got one because of how many series LSU lost.



We only lost 3 series and werent swept in any
This post was edited on 4/8/13 at 5:40 pm
Posted by TigerMoose
Member since Jan 2011
614 posts
Posted on 4/8/13 at 5:57 pm to
quote:

We only lost 3 series and werent swept in any


We lost 4 series last year. Appalachian St., Auburn, Kentucky, and Vandy.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177509 posts
Posted on 4/8/13 at 6:10 pm to
Four is a ton of series losses.
Posted by Drewbie
tFlagship
Member since Jun 2012
66659 posts
Posted on 4/8/13 at 6:53 pm to
quote:

13-17
LSU wiki said 14-16.

ETA: We're talking about 2010 correct?
This post was edited on 4/8/13 at 6:55 pm
Posted by Drewbie
tFlagship
Member since Jun 2012
66659 posts
Posted on 4/8/13 at 6:54 pm to
quote:

Arky is going to struggle to get a national seed with their RPI situation.
We're 37 according to Boyd right now. If we take 2 of 3 from LSU and win the series we are supposed to win down the stretch, I don't think we'll have much of an RPI problem. Beating Bama twice took us from 62 to 37. I can only imagine what beating LSU twice would do. All of this assuming we win the series, of course. If we lose this series, I don't see how we could get our RPI high enough with our remaining schedule to be a national seed. We play Oklahoma, but that's about the only team left on our schedule that would be an RPI booster. The rest of our SEC schedule is, for the most part, the bottom half of the league.
This post was edited on 4/8/13 at 7:01 pm
Posted by engie
Member since Jan 2012
8953 posts
Posted on 4/8/13 at 7:15 pm to
It's alot easier to go from 60 to 40 than 40 to 20 or 20 to 10 -- and road wins count over double what a home win does in RPI(1.4 wins for a road win vs 0.6 win for a home win) so the series vs LSU won't help you as much as you'd think even if you win it.

It's hard to guess what the committee will do because of how it varies from year to year. One thing I don't think they will(or at least shouldn't) look at that closely is the SEC standings. At least not beyond the top 2 that are probable national seed locks. Too much variation in the schedule(s) now with everyone missing 3 teams for that stat to be very as valuable as it once was....
Posted by Drewbie
tFlagship
Member since Jun 2012
66659 posts
Posted on 4/8/13 at 7:21 pm to
While true, the SEC teams with the harder conference schedules also get a boost to RPI if they win enough. But you're right. Standings shouldn't even factor it outside of who won what division. Then you have to factor in how much they put into the conference tourneys.
Posted by engie
Member since Jan 2012
8953 posts
Posted on 4/8/13 at 8:34 pm to
Agreed...

Arkansas has been the most screwed team from a hosting perspective since 2005 IMO. It was pretty crazy really as I've been looking back at the numbers...

RPI #16 in 05 -- didn't host
RPI #12 in 06 -- didn't host
RPI #12 in 09 -- didn't host
RPI #13 in 11 -- didn't host
RPI #16 in 12 -- didn't host
Posted by Drewbie
tFlagship
Member since Jun 2012
66659 posts
Posted on 4/8/13 at 8:59 pm to
quote:

Arkansas has been the most screwed team from a hosting perspective since 2005 IMO
Trust me, we know.

Which is crazy. You'd think the NCAA would be jumping through hoops to get Arkansas hosting with the attendance we have and the size of our stadium. But we're notorious for tanking late in the season, and even more notorious for going 0fer in the conference tourney. That doesn't bode well with the committee. That's about the only thing they've been consistent on. If you don't finish strong, it's a huge negative.
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