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re: History shows Nick Saban's time as an elite coach is almost (if not already) over
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:40 am to paperwasp
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:40 am to paperwasp
quote:
You seem to be serious, so I'm going to post a serious response.
I agree with your overall assessment.
Thank you for a serious, non defensive response.
As i've said before, I'm not claiming Saban can't be the one to break the mold, it certainly could happen. But whether or not it should be expected to happen is another discussion.
With any great coach or player, people tend to think the excellence will last forever, but father time is still undefeated.
1
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:42 am to Draconian Sanctions
YOU WISH 
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:43 am to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
I mean there undeniably is a pattern
The only pattern I see in this thread aside from you are stupid is that all things eventually come to an end.
All those coaches you listed coached for different time amounts, at different times and at different ages. There is nothing that actually links them up or anything you can point at to say - this is when you can expect a coach to decline.
As I said previously, just another thread with a LSU fan hoping Saban is finished. For the 12th year in a row. There's a pattern for you.
Eventually you guys will be right, and you'll probably claim what a great wizard you are in predicting the future. And that's how ignorant people get even more ignorant.
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:43 am to mls4bama
That's your best response?
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:46 am to 3down10
quote:
There is nothing that actually links them up or anything you can point at to say - this is when you can expect a coach to decline.
Well that's actually the opposite of the truth. You're being very emotional in your thinking right now. The data overwhelmingly shows that even historically great coaches tend to drop off by their mid to late 60's.
That's just a fact, no matter how much you don't want to see or admit it.
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:46 am to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
I remember how that felt in the Miles later years.
you have my sympathies
I'm not sure what a coach who got lucky and came into a pre-built program and managed to sneak out a National Championship on a 2 loss season has to do with this.
Saban has a 2 loss season and you guys start talking about he is finished and that was the absolutely top of the Les Miles career.
Unless getting embarrassed 21-0 in your own state is what you consider the height of his career.
This post was edited on 4/15/20 at 10:47 am
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:48 am to 3down10
Lashing out like this very unbecoming btw, other Alabama fans have been able to come into this thread and participate in the discussion dispassionately.
I know your feelings are hurt right now but it's hard to watch you lose control of your emotions to such an extent.
I know your feelings are hurt right now but it's hard to watch you lose control of your emotions to such an extent.
This post was edited on 4/15/20 at 10:49 am
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:50 am to Draconian Sanctions
LSU just their best season ever and Alabama is on your mind. Just sad!!!
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:51 am to joshua2571
I enjoy contemplating and discussing the history of the game and what it can teach us about the present day. Is that not allowed?
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:51 am to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
Well that's actually the opposite of the truth. You're being very emotional in your thinking right now. The data overwhelmingly shows that even historically great coaches tend to drop off by their mid to late 60's.
That's just a fact, no matter how much you don't want to see or admit it.
You have people on the list who aren't even 60 years old. Your list ranges in age from 52-71.
And you have a short list even at that. Many of them have never even won a single national championship. Others were smacked with probations/etc and/or moved on to worse teams.
Pretending like a guy who coached in 1925 is relevant?
You're worse than people who think every thing they see in the sky is proof of aliens.
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:53 am to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
lashing out because you have no response
LINK
4 posts on the front page by LSU fans, 3 out of 4 are about Alabama.
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:54 am to 3down10
quote:
You have people on the list who aren't even 60 years old. Your list ranges in age from 52-71.
Obviously there are different circumstances surrounding everyone's career, that doesn't mean there's nothing to be gleaned from looking at the whole.
quote:
And you have a short list even at that. Many of them have never even won a single national championship. Others were smacked with probations/etc and/or moved on to worse teams.
It's the most apples to apples comparison that can be done. If the list of coaches who have won 200 games or more at a P5 school (or historical equivalent) isn't a good enough sample, what would be?
This post was edited on 4/15/20 at 10:55 am
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:56 am to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
Lashing out like this very unbecoming btw, other Alabama fans have been able to come into this thread and participate in the discussion dispassionately.
I know your feelings are hurt right now but it's hard to watch you lose control of your emotions to such an extent.
Would you be happier if I made a stupid thread that outlined all of LSU's coaches never winning more than 1 national championship at LSU as an indicator that LSU will go a minimum of 7 years before they have a chance to win another national championship unless Coach O is fired or leaves the team this year?
Because that's the level of proof and ignorance of this thread.
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:57 am to ChipDiamond
quote:
LINK
4 posts on the front page by LSU fans, 3 out of 4 are about Alabama.
He's just trolling is my guess. Just the latest form of "Alabama and Saban is finished" that's gone around for the past 12 years by jealous LSU fans.
They win a national championship and they are left feeling empty because they know it pales in comparison of what Saban/Alabama has accomplished in the modern era.
Kind of sad.
This post was edited on 4/15/20 at 10:58 am
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:57 am to Draconian Sanctions
I mean...you did put a lot of time and effort into this but essentially all you have proven is that the vast majority of coaches start to think about retirement in their 60s. The jury is still out on Nick Saban as he came within eight points of another 12-0 regular season this year after four straight years of national championship game appearances.
A lot of the problems on the defensive side of the ball could be attributed to the coaching turnover we have seen on that side of the ball since the end of the 2015 season. One year does not make a trend. But we're acting like it's the end of Nick Saban as we known it after an 11-2 season. A season where our average margin of victory in those 11 wins was 34.3 points. Outside of our two losses, our next two closest games were a 47-28 victory over Texas A&M and a 35-16 victory over Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.
If he continues to average 2-3 losses going into the 2023 season (assuming he's still here) then you might be onto something.
A lot of the problems on the defensive side of the ball could be attributed to the coaching turnover we have seen on that side of the ball since the end of the 2015 season. One year does not make a trend. But we're acting like it's the end of Nick Saban as we known it after an 11-2 season. A season where our average margin of victory in those 11 wins was 34.3 points. Outside of our two losses, our next two closest games were a 47-28 victory over Texas A&M and a 35-16 victory over Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.
If he continues to average 2-3 losses going into the 2023 season (assuming he's still here) then you might be onto something.
This post was edited on 4/15/20 at 11:00 am
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:58 am to 3down10
quote:
Would you be happier if I made a stupid thread that outlined all of LSU's coaches never winning more than 1 national championship at LSU as an indicator that LSU will go a minimum of 7 years before they have a chance to win another national championship unless Coach O is fired or leaves the team this year?
If that will make you feel better then please do.
Once again I've said multiple times that's it's perfectly plausible that Saban will break the mold, just that's it shouldn't be expected based on what we've seen from history.
Posted on 4/15/20 at 10:59 am to RollTide1987
quote:
all you have proven is that the vast majority of coaches start to think about retirement in their 60s.
No, many of these coaches stayed on as the head coach of their school for many years beyond their drop off from their prime.
Posted on 4/15/20 at 11:05 am to 3down10
quote:
He's just trolling is my guess. Just the latest form of "Alabama and Saban is finished" that's gone around for the past 12 years by jealous LSU fans.
They win a national championship and they are left feeling empty because they know it pales in comparison of what Saban/Alabama has accomplished in the modern era.
Kind of sad.
You are so incredibly angry right now
Posted on 4/15/20 at 11:07 am to Draconian Sanctions
It's difficult to compare coaches from before the last 20-25 years due to the differences in what 65-70 meant pre-1990 compared to what it means in 2020. Just the general health of humans at that point in the aging process is very different today than it was then. On top of that, the way most coaches of those eras treated their bodies throughout their lives is very different from coaches today, and specifically different from Saban.
It's entirely possible that he's at the start of a decline, but I think we'd all agree if anyone was the one to break this trend it would be him - based on a myriad of factors. His health, his approach, modern health longevity, his ability to adapt, etc.
Also, as noted, a few of these guys had some of their best years very late. Bill Snyder's had very good teams for a 4 year stretch from 2011-2014. Mack Brown seems to have things heading on a very impressive track at North Carolina right now - both on the field and specifically in recruiting. And both of those are within the last 10 years AND guys who have lived clean, healthy lives.
So, I guess in conclusion, we'll see. I tend to think that the bigger issue for Saban and Alabama is that the rest of the country and conference have just gotten a lot better. A lot of the cutting edge things we did in the late 2000s and early 2010s are now done, and done well, by a lot of different programs in the SEC (plus Clemson and Ohio State). Nothing I've seen from Saban so far suggests a relaxing of his standards, energy or mind. But it could start anytime. Humans are human.
It's entirely possible that he's at the start of a decline, but I think we'd all agree if anyone was the one to break this trend it would be him - based on a myriad of factors. His health, his approach, modern health longevity, his ability to adapt, etc.
Also, as noted, a few of these guys had some of their best years very late. Bill Snyder's had very good teams for a 4 year stretch from 2011-2014. Mack Brown seems to have things heading on a very impressive track at North Carolina right now - both on the field and specifically in recruiting. And both of those are within the last 10 years AND guys who have lived clean, healthy lives.
So, I guess in conclusion, we'll see. I tend to think that the bigger issue for Saban and Alabama is that the rest of the country and conference have just gotten a lot better. A lot of the cutting edge things we did in the late 2000s and early 2010s are now done, and done well, by a lot of different programs in the SEC (plus Clemson and Ohio State). Nothing I've seen from Saban so far suggests a relaxing of his standards, energy or mind. But it could start anytime. Humans are human.
This post was edited on 4/15/20 at 11:10 am
Posted on 4/15/20 at 11:11 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
t's entirely possible that he's at the start of a decline, but I think we'd all agree if anyone was the one to break this trend it would be him - based on a myriad of factors. His health, his approach, modern health longevity, his ability to adapt, etc.
It's certainly possible. The question is more should it be expected. To me, I would say no as there is no historical corollary for such a thing.
quote:
Also, as noted, a few of these guys had some of their best years very late. Bill Snyder's had very good teams for a 4 year stretch from 2011-2014.
Yes, though still off from his height at KState when he had 6 top 10 finishes in 8 years.
Jury is still out on Mack to a point I guess but I think it's pretty unlikely he'll hit the heights he had at Texas again.
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