re: Has there ever been a close game in a semifinal in CFP?

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The 4 seed has won twice and the three seed has won once. Three out of eight years. I'd say four is appropriate.

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There are always going to be outliers. Bama was #16 after the 2010 season (Auburns NC yr) and I truly believe we would have won the whole thing if we'd been in a 16 team PO. But, we had lost 3 games that year and I was fine being out of it. I still think 2 is enough.

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And we think expanding the playoffs is the answer? So #4 gets consistently blown out by #1 so let’s see how #8 will do. Truth is, in most years there are only 1 or 2 with true claims to a title.

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We may not get better games, but it’s better than the trend of having New Years Day bowls where stars are opting out. I can guarantee you Kenny Pickett and Kenneth Walker would have played in a playoff game. Hell, I even bet the A&M coach and administration would have let their team play in a 1st round playoff game. We’ve broken the bowl system, so we might as well expand the playoff.

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So there's been 16 semifinal playoff games in the history of CFB, and only 3 of those are what we'd call "close games".

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That metric seems to be one-score games. I think expecting that is pretty unrealistic. For reference, the last 20 seccg have had only 3 1-score games. Six 10 points or fewer.