re: Greg Sankey Press Conference Thread

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They tried to quarantine for that, it didn't work.

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It spread to the US in March of 1918 and official action wasn't taken until August when a mutated version of it started killing people left and right. Slightly different approach here.

Double postski

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That's the story for all quarantines, including the current virus.

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I guess I'm not seeing the correlation with the current virus. To me, that's more like we have the current version, we laugh it off, and then it mutates and comes back with a 10%-20% mortality rate in August.

And the quarantine part doesn't seem to be true at all. Philadelphia continued on with a large parade that drew 200K people while St. Louis shut schools, libraries, government entities, limited access to street cars, etc within two days of it being detected in their city.

Here's the results:

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I guess I'm not seeing the correlation with the current virus. To me, that's more like we have the current version, we laugh it off, and then it mutates and comes back with a 10%-20% mortality rate in August.

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I really can't debate imaginary things that haven't happened and/or won't happen.

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And the quarantine part doesn't seem to be true at all. Philadelphia continued on with a large parade that drew 200K people while St. Louis shut schools, libraries, government entities, limited access to street cars, etc within two days of it being detected in their city.

Here's the results:

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Those results look exactly the same over time...

But you tied the two viruses together with your mutation situation.

Yes, because the first few months were similar to this. Doctors didn't initially know it was a unique version of the flu because the symptoms were basically the same as the seasonal flu. Folks would have been saying the same thing about it as they do Coronavirus on Ye Olde Tiger Rant in 1918 if it were around then. Just worry about the elderly, it's no worse than the seasonal flu, no reason to change your lifestyle, etc.

If they had understood that this was something new that was very contagious (which they didn't have the advancements to back then) they could contained the number of cases in the US, which in theory should have drastically reduced the number of people that were effected by this in the long term.

Long story short, I think cancelling things that are scheduled for more than 30 days out is a bit overkill right now. But I can live with shutting things down for 30 days or so just to contain it and prevent a potential larger scale problem in the future.

Do I think it will evolve in to anything like that with our modern advances? No. But I'd rather not find out.

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The players are at risk (debatable on severity at risk) so they should have the right to vote.

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Yes but its not just them. Its the chain it creates. We are not so much worried about the players getting it (most will be perfectly fine), we are worried about who they will give it to. Unless the plan is to keep them from others for up to two weeks after everything is over.

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You do realize that the massive spike in Philadelphia cases you see in that graph above is EXACTLY what these current preventative measures are hoping to avoid with corona virus?

I'm sure everybody realizes that so many cases occurring at the same time would leave our health care system in the same or worse position as Northern Italy right now, where patients who could survive this are dying simply due to the sheer lack of intensive care units?

The OVER TIME, as you put it, is the key to everything. To spread this out over time provides the health care system with a much better chance to deal with infections with a lot more success and potentially save a lot of lives.



So many people are saying these measures are "over reactions" when they don't even seem to understand the most basic reason they are being implemented.

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The quarantine did not stop the cases, it was a steady amount of people getting it the entire time.

And there is nothing to support the assertions being made behind the reasons for the 2 different graphs.

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Bull shite. You're claiming that when Philly did it, it suddenly went to 0 cases, but the entire time St Louis did it, it just slowly kept spreading?

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There's plenty of literature. Here's a pre-corona article (to minimize sensationalism) for example.

"Thanks to the quarantine, St. Louis’ death rate in 1918 was lowest among major U.S. cities. In Philadelphia, where bodies piled up on sidewalks when the morgues overflowed, the death rate was nearly twice as high."

If you don't like the reported facts, I dunno what else to tell you. I wasn't alive in 1918, so this is all I have to go off of.

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There's plenty of literature. Here's a pre-corona article (to minimize sensationalism) for example.

"Thanks to the quarantine, St. Louis’ death rate in 1918 was lowest among major U.S. cities. In Philadelphia, where bodies piled up on sidewalks when the morgues overflowed, the death rate was nearly twice as high."

If you don't like the reported facts, I dunno what else to tell you. I wasn't alive in 1918, so this is all I have to go off of.

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I've read up on it and I'm well aware of the claims. The St Louis quarantine did not stop the spread, and they had the benefit of knowing it was coming before it got there, which east coast cities did not.

And for the record, personal quarantines most certainly do work. If you are sick, you should keep your arse at home. That's just common sense and common courtesy. But as far as mass quarantines, the shite still spreads and will spread.