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FL +10000 to win the NC
Posted on 10/14/18 at 4:30 pm
Posted on 10/14/18 at 4:30 pm
Should have posted this before Vandy but could still be there. FL would be a favorite in their final four games, today. Get past UGA, which isn't far fetched, and you're looking at very favorable hedge opportunities as early as Atlanta.
6
Posted on 10/14/18 at 4:32 pm to CrabInMyShoeMouth
Only loss to UK. I feel like its 2007 again.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 4:34 pm to CrabInMyShoeMouth
quote:
Get past UGA, which isn't far fetched, and you're looking at very favorable hedge opportunities as early as Atlanta.
Explain to me how you're going to hedge the game in Atlanta when Alabama is a 20-point favorite.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 4:35 pm to CrabInMyShoeMouth
This team as assembled is not beating Bama.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 4:56 pm to BayouBengals03
Because they wouldn't be even close to a 20 point underdog. In 2016 when FL was an unimpressive 8-3 going into ATL against a heavy NC favorite, the spread was 16-17. It would be around 2 TDs as things stand today, probably slightly less. Would shoot way down from there if FL ends the season with a 10 game win streak and wins over LSU and UGA. You can easily start hedging +10000 in Atlanta.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 4:58 pm to CrabInMyShoeMouth
Florida ain't winning the NC.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 5:01 pm to CrabInMyShoeMouth
Yeah it's honestly not a terrible bet. I may put 50 on it just to do it. I don't expect to go and win the title this year..but those odds are good enough to put some on it for the hell of it.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 5:04 pm to CrabInMyShoeMouth
There is no way Florida is +10000 right now. Probably around 50/1 is my guess. Or 40/1.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 5:13 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
It's 100-1 when I looked
Posted on 10/14/18 at 5:14 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
You're most likely correct. Odds aren't updated from what I can find but with poor performances from UGA, ND, WAS, WVU, PN St., UCF, COL, Miami, and WIS that would make sense. Didn't realize until now how many team's stock free fell.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 5:28 pm to CrabInMyShoeMouth
Most books will update lines after the MNF game. It is the end of the previous betting week.
I'm guessing 40/1.
I'm guessing 40/1.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 5:30 pm to CrabInMyShoeMouth
quote:
Because they wouldn't be even close to a 20 point underdog.
Wrong.
quote:
In 2016 when FL was an unimpressive 8-3 going into ATL against a heavy NC favorite, the spread was 16-17. It would be around 2 TDs as things stand today
Alabama would be a double-digit favorite over Clemson and Ohio State right now. You don't think the spread would approach 20 against Florida?
quote:
Would shoot way down from there if FL ends the season with a 10 game win streak and wins over LSU and UGA. You can easily start hedging +10000 in Atlanta.
Wouldn't even be worth it, because you'd have to bet Alabama ML, which would be a shitty return. And it's not like it would be worth it to put a big amount on Alabama ML, because if Florida won the game outright, they'd still have to beat two more good teams to win the natty.
ETA: This becomes a much better bet if LSU were to somehow beat Alabama.
This post was edited on 10/14/18 at 5:35 pm
Posted on 10/14/18 at 5:30 pm to Gatorbait2008
I'll put 50 bucks on it if it is 100/1 when they post again. I think it should be 40 or 50 to 1 though.
I have a bet on AU to win the bball national title at 33/1. Kinda like that bet a good bit. We should definitely be a top 10 team this year.
I have a bet on AU to win the bball national title at 33/1. Kinda like that bet a good bit. We should definitely be a top 10 team this year.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 5:36 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
Wrong.
You should at least explain why if you're going to act like you know what you're talking about.
quote:
Alabama would be a double-digit favorite over Clemson and Ohio State right now. You don't think the spread would approach 20 against Florida?
That's a joke. Again, you should explain why if you're going to act like you know what you're talking about.
quote:
Wouldn't even be worth it, because you'd have to bet Alabama ML, which would be a shitty return. And it's not like it would be worth it to put a big amount on Alabama ML, because if Florida won the game outright, they'd still have to beat two more good teams to win the natty.
You obviously don't understand hedging concepts, or really how odds work.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 5:42 pm to CrabInMyShoeMouth
quote:
That's a joke. Again, you should explain why if you're going to act like you know what you're talking about.
LINK
There you go, bud. That's as of three weeks ago, but I don't think much has changed in that time in terms of how much Bama would be favored over everyone else.
quote:
You obviously don't understand hedging concepts, or really how odds work.
lol
Again, I'll go back to my original question. Explain to me how you're going to hedge a bet on Florida to win the national championship when they play Alabama in the SEC Championship Game? What would be your bet?
It would not be a true hedge. It wouldn't really be much of a hedge in any way, shape, or form, given how big of a favorite Alabama will be.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 6:18 pm to BayouBengals03
Haha, okay 10 and 12. Toche` I suppose.
Well if an example must be illustrated for you then so be it. I bet 30 to win 3000. Sure I don't have to hedge in ATL, and I probably wouldn't, but you could still at least break even thru hedging. Say Bama is -400 which would be realistic against an 11-1 FL team, assuming Bama is 12-0. I'll bet 120 for 30. Is that what I want from this? No, but I've made my money back thru hedging. FL wins, perfect. I'm now at 150 to win 3000. The next games you can expect to bet 150 to win 150 for estimate purposes. FL wins again well now I'm invested 300 to win 3000. From there, you get the picture.
Maybe you just see the odds playing out differently than I do.
quote:
lol
Again, I'll go back to my original question. Explain to me how you're going to hedge a bet on Florida to win the national championship when they play Alabama in the SEC Championship Game? What would be your bet?
It would not be a true hedge. It wouldn't really be much of a hedge in any way, shape, or form, given how big of a favorite Alabama will be.
Well if an example must be illustrated for you then so be it. I bet 30 to win 3000. Sure I don't have to hedge in ATL, and I probably wouldn't, but you could still at least break even thru hedging. Say Bama is -400 which would be realistic against an 11-1 FL team, assuming Bama is 12-0. I'll bet 120 for 30. Is that what I want from this? No, but I've made my money back thru hedging. FL wins, perfect. I'm now at 150 to win 3000. The next games you can expect to bet 150 to win 150 for estimate purposes. FL wins again well now I'm invested 300 to win 3000. From there, you get the picture.
Maybe you just see the odds playing out differently than I do.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 6:25 pm to CrabInMyShoeMouth
quote:
Say Bama is -400 which would be realistic against an 11-1 FL team
No shot in hell they would only be -400, but that's fine.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 6:44 pm to BayouBengals03
If (when) Florida beats Georgia, let's revisit this
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