re: Finebaum predicts Bama's season

Here are key points:
1.) LSU does not yet know what it has in JJ, he has not gone through an SEC schedule. He looked impressive against GT but had a month to game plan for the game and GT is not an SEC defense.

-LSU returns all but two starters off the 4th highest scoring offense in the SEC last year. Our situation at QB in 2009 is 100% improved than it was going into 2008.

- GT isn't in the SEC, but Georgia scored only 42 points against GT's defense, vs 52 against LSU. GT was 2-0 vs the SEC before LSU beat them.

2.) LSU is still unsure on defense, we (being LSU fans) talked up the defense last year. With Beckwith, RJF, Tyson Jackson, Woods, all coming back we assumed they would put pressure on a QB and cause havoc. That did not happen so just cause we brought in a bigger name DC does not automatically equal improvement. I wanna see what they look like in an actual game not what I assume they will be this year.

-Last year at this time everyone was asking "Is the offense really that good, or the defense just that bad?" Again, the defense is 100% improved from last year, simply by eliminating the confusion caused by the co-coordinators.


3.) Bama lost 2 offensive lineman LSU lost 2 offensive lineman. Yet we assume Charles Scott will be fine. Ingram is better than Coffee and would have started over him had he returned. Ingram will easily get 1200 yards this year maybe more.

-We're not assuming, we will be. LSU returns both OT's...the 2nd most important position on the offense after QB. Both our OG and our center replacements were higher-rated recruits than ones Alabama is replacing their starters with. In addition, LSU returns TE Richard Dickson, so that's 4/6 on our o-line returning vs, 3/6 for the Tide's o-line.

4.) Bama will only want their QB to throw for around 150 yards a game and limit his INT's. Their defense will be top of SEC again.

-Both of those are huge assumptions. Yes, the Tide returns nine starters, But the Tide defense will be facing a much bigger challenge this year, in that their main rivals will all be improved on offense while the Tide offense has taken a step back. The Tide defense will be on the field longer this year.

5.) Anyone can go undefeated with right breaks. Bama did last year till Florida game. Any team can if a ball bounces just the right way during a game, or a QB makes the wrong read. Luck is involved in all sports, you just have to accept that.
LSU was lucky to play in the 2 NC's we played in this year. By people losing ahead of us and some friendly computers.

-Alabama had incredible luck last year. Just compare their situation with Georgia's. The Tide was thinner depth-wise than the Bulldogs at every position going into the year. Yet the Bulldogs got decimated by injuries on both o-line and d-line. The Tide had no significant injuries to speak of.

LSU, Auburn, and Tennessee, all had unexpected QB troubles at the same time. Arkansas and Ole Miss had new coaching staffs, and Ole Miss and LSU were breaking in new QB's. Miss. St. tanked and fired their coach. Alabama returned a four year starter at QB that was their all-time leading passer, so they had a huge edge over every other team in the west. This year, the shoe is on the other foot.

Basically the Tide got almost every break you could think of in 2008. The law of averages alone suggests the Tide will not get the same kind of luck this year.

The closer you get to opening day, the more sports writers will begin to realize the true state of affairs in the SEC. The Tide is living off of borrowed glory from last year.