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re: ESPN playoff predictor says Bama and GA are locks to get in at 2 losses and no SECCG...
Posted on 11/14/24 at 4:57 pm to Dirk Dawgler
Posted on 11/14/24 at 4:57 pm to Dirk Dawgler
quote:
UGA goes 10-2 is a lock with #1 SOS.
Correct, but I think they're a 9-3 maybe even an 8-4 team right now.
1
Posted on 11/14/24 at 4:59 pm to TexasOnTop
Oregon played OSU and Boise State which TX can only say they played Vanderbilt and got smoked by Georgia.
Posted on 11/14/24 at 5:08 pm to 3down10
quote:
Why play a tough schedule?
We don't really have a choice in the SEC but nobody is going to schedule hard OOC games going forward.
Posted on 11/14/24 at 5:22 pm to TexasOnTop
quote:
Idk, they probably see UGA barely beating teams that good teams would blow out.
This point doesn’t work with Miami, Indiana and penn st
Posted on 11/14/24 at 5:30 pm to Buckeye06
quote:what you’re missing, and everyone else on this board is missing, is that these are independent probabilities, meaning they’re independent scenarios.
Bama 99%
GA 99%
Ole Miss 83%
Meaning, if you take a case where you look at just one of these teams at a time, if that team ends with only 2 losses, irrespective of what any other teams do in that hypothetical scenario, that team under review would make the playoff in X% of all scenarios where the only constant is that team in question having no more than 2 losses.
The probabilities aren’t additive, and the H2H results are immaterial to the question being asked (as H2H is a historical fact not subject to future chance).
This post was edited on 11/14/24 at 7:13 pm
Posted on 11/14/24 at 5:31 pm to Gator Fever
Agreed 3 loss Bama sec runner up in like Matt flynn
Posted on 11/14/24 at 5:38 pm to Demosthenian
quote:
Meaning, if you take a case where you look at just one of these teams at a time, if that team ends with only 2 losses, irrespective of what any other teams do in that hypothetical scenario, that team under review would make the playoff in X% of all scenarios where the only constant is that team in question having no more than 2 losses.
The probabilities aren’t additive, and the H2H results are immaterial to the question being asked (as H2H is a historical fact not subject to future chance).
Posted on 11/14/24 at 5:47 pm to Gator Fever
If all of the current 2 loss teams win out, that would put the final teams @ 2 conference losses:
BAMA
UGA
MISS
MIZZ
TENN
LSU
TEXAS/TEXAS A&M
……now, tie breakers. The first 3 tie breaker metrics would not be used, therefore using the 4th. That rule is: “ Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams”
Guess who would play in the SECCG?
Texas/Texas A&M winner vs. LSU
BAT shite CRAZY, I know.
BAMA
UGA
MISS
MIZZ
TENN
LSU
TEXAS/TEXAS A&M
……now, tie breakers. The first 3 tie breaker metrics would not be used, therefore using the 4th. That rule is: “ Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams”
Guess who would play in the SECCG?
Texas/Texas A&M winner vs. LSU
BAT shite CRAZY, I know.
Posted on 11/14/24 at 6:04 pm to Gator Fever
quote:
and Boise State
A G5 team with a below average SOS? Nice!
Posted on 11/14/24 at 6:04 pm to djsdawg
quote:
This point doesn’t work with Miami, Indiana and penn st
None of those team have 2 losses or a bad QB.
Posted on 11/14/24 at 7:58 pm to BigNastyTiger417
Tenn and Ga can’t both win out
Posted on 11/14/24 at 8:15 pm to TexasOnTop
I feel the same.
Posted on 11/14/24 at 8:48 pm to Gator Fever
quote:
Indiana is a 97% lock if they only lose to Ohio State with no championship game appearance.
In that scenario Indiana would have ZERO wins over ranked teams and be in the playoff.
Posted on 11/15/24 at 6:56 am to BigNastyTiger417
….hence why I said the current 2 loss teams win out. Tenn currently has 1 SEC loss.
Posted on 11/15/24 at 7:12 am to 3down10
I been saying this since day one. Other conferences and teams have 'gotten' it. It takes the SEC a while to catch on.....We beat each other up and play hard OOC games and a brutal SECCG; while other teams teams take it easy, rest players, and walk into the playoffs. NOTHING matters but getting in the playoffs for a NC. The SEC should be ashamed of themselves by punishing their good teams with an extra hard game with little upside thats stands mostly to hurt them. The conference should be concerned with promoting all their teams into the playoffs.
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