Started By
Message
re: Do yall believe there will be football this year?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:37 pm to djsdawg
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:37 pm to djsdawg
quote:
Wouldn’t be the first time someone misread something. It’s a very high and specific #. A shortage of testing doesn’t prove the # is 80.
80 seems like a pretty general number to me. 79.54% seems like a specific number. There is no number like that which has been calculated. As I said before, the antibody testing will help make it more precise.
It is estimated 50% of those who get the virus don't have any symptoms at all.
And then beyond that, another 30% have really mild symptoms and they are easily able to go over at home without the care of a doctor.
The other 20% are those who have worse symptoms or they are rich and get tested.
1
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:50 pm to 3down10
So what does your equation say the final death toll will be?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:51 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
Dr Birx announced today that 40% of the people on ventilators have come off of them and I'm assuming others will be coming off as well.
Sorry don't believe they're more damage.
Here's a link that's being passed around. Good read from some doctors who are treating patients.
Clinical Pearls Covid 19 for ER practitioners
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:54 pm to djsdawg
quote:
So what does your equation say the final death toll will be?
It doesn't. It's just a mortality rate equation.
This website does, but I didn't make it and don't know what formula they use.
COVID-19 Projections
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:37 pm to PlateJohnsonIII
quote:
The current predictions aren't that far off the 100k estimate if you understand how the models work.
Oh I'm sure you'll let me know.So many epidemiologist on the board! Who knew?
BTW they are that far off Imperial College has us at 2 million.
quote:
Keep in mind, that the no mitigation outcome is still probably abysmal and close to the original predictions
This what kills me.NOBODY is saying NO MITIGATION.Why is this argument always phrased this way?
BTW, you wanna explain Japan to me? A whopping 99 deaths in a country 128 million? But the cases are about "explode" any day now right?
quote:
congested Italy.
Pretty congested in Tokyo,no?
quote:
United States just makes the outcome of the "mitigation" version of the model much, much more favorable.
So why did Birx plug in Italy and Spain's scenerio into our models? You know that's what she did, correct?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:45 pm to RD Dawg
Some of you still do not get it! It has a lot to do with people not following the orders and some are stupid or do not care! Other Countries do care and understand and follow the order better than people from USA!
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:49 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
Oh I'm sure you'll let me know.So many epidemiologist on the board! Who knew?
Not an epidemiologist by any means, but I routinely dabble in probabilistic models of other sorts - similarly complex, but less "unpredictable" - if you will.
quote:
BTW they are that far off Imperial College has us at 2 million.
Imperial college was never a realistic outcome given our current policies. Don't know why you brought that up.
quote:
This what kills me.NOBODY is saying NO MITIGATION.Why is this argument always phrased this way?
Because the currently "favorable" (almost makes me want to vomit phrasing it that way given how many real people will die) outcome is being used to discredit the decision to lay down social distancing regulations. The current outlook is only as low as it is due to our country taking swift and definitive action. We should not lose site of that.
quote:
BTW, you wanna explain Japan to me? A whopping 99 deaths in a country 128 million? But the cases are about "explode" any day now right?
Haven't looked at Japan recently. My understanding is that they are inadequately testing ATM and will likely freel the repercussions of their lax policies. Also heard a conspiracy that they were under-reporting with hopes of preserving the olympics.
quote:
So why did Birx plug in Italy and Spain's scenerio into our models? You know that's what she did, correct?
Because that's what she had, and more data is valuable.
The U.S statistics were - at the time - incomplete. They are currently helping provide a more accurate picture, however.
This thing is moving slowly in certain parts of the U.S. and quickly in others. I'd imagine that's actually pretty tough to model. Contrast that to Italy, which exploded with more uniformity.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:58 pm to PlateJohnsonIII
quote:
Imperial college was never a realistic outcome given our current policies. Don't know why you brought that up.
We're talking models aren't we? Or are you just cherry picking models that you seem to agree with?
quote:
The current outlook is only as low as it is due to our country taking swift and definitive action. We should not lose site of that.
But we're already doing that.Are we super mitigating now? Of course not.
quote:
My understanding is that they are inadequately testing ATM and will likely freel the repercussions of their lax policies
Is gonna blow up ANY MOMENT now.Believe me!Blah,blah,blah
quote:
Also heard a conspiracy that they were under-reporting with hopes of preserving the olympics.
Could be a possibility I suppose but it's still difficult to keep deaths under wraps.They still have a somewhat of a free press.
quote:
Because that's what she had, and more data is valuable.
Didn't have data on Germany or SK? Kinda sure that she did.
quote:
I'd imagine that's actually pretty tough to model. Contrast that to Italy, which exploded with more uniformity.
Makes sense.
BTW I do think age demographics are important in regards to who is actually testing positive.The average age of someone testing positive in Germany was 12 years younger than Italy or Spain.It makes a big difference as far as outcomes.
I'm not sure that number is plugged in the UW models.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 11:42 pm to TrueLefty
quote:
It has a lot to do with people not following the orders
Yes! We ALL must follow orders immediately! And blindly follow WHATEVER the govt tells us!
Sieg Heil!
Posted on 4/9/20 at 11:43 pm to Peter167
There better be
Posted on 4/9/20 at 11:45 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
Yes! We ALL must follow orders immediately! And blindly follow WHATEVER the govt tells us!
Sieg Heil!
Involving this situation........yes.
Idiots not following the guidelines set forth by the health care experts is why this thing continues to run rampant through our nation.
It all boils down to common sense.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:18 am to MrAUTigers
quote:
health care experts
Like who? Dr Fauci who said this
on Jan 21st
quote:
The Coronavirus isn't a major threat to this country"
The WHO who said this in mid January.
quote:
Found no clear evidence of person to person transmission
The "experts" at Imperial College? Who predicted 2.2 million deaths?
Dr Birx who predicted a "best case scenerio" of 100k to 240k dying?
How bout the Surgeon General who told us not to wear masks back in February? Now we find out that wearing masks "might" be recommended by the CDC.
Those "experts?"
NOBODY is saying anything about doing "nothing" but the more I hear these experts the less Im convinced they know.
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 12:21 am
Posted on 4/10/20 at 1:04 am to RD Dawg
quote:
Like who? Dr Fauci who said this
all of them.
Stop showing your ignorance. This thing is shutting down nations, sports leagues, Disney, Broadway, casinos. Billions of dollars are being lost........from an April Fools joke? If you can't see this thing is killing thousands of Americans daily, then...........
I am amazed at how many "experts/know it all's" we have here. I hope everybody appreciates how truly blessed we are.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 1:07 am to Peter167
No. Hope I’m wrong
Posted on 4/10/20 at 1:22 am to MrAUTigers
quote:
all of them
Even the World Health Organization? You sure about that?They haven't they been discredited at all?
quote:
Stop showing your ignorance
I've given you 5 specific examples when they were wrong and this is your retort?
Was the Surgeon General right or wrong when suggested we not wear masks?
Please answer the questions without insults
quote:
lost........from an April Fools joke?
Who the frick said this?
quote:
you can't see this thing is killing thousands of Americans daily, then...........
What? Once again,this isn't an either or scenerio ànd if theres any time to question the so called experts it's now.
Once again,I gave you specific examples of what they got wrong and you just call me "ignorant" and a "denier"
Posted on 4/10/20 at 1:44 am to RD Dawg
quote:
I've given you 5 specific examples when they were wrong and this is your retort?
They didn't know a damn thing about this virus when it showed up on our doorstep.
quote:
Was the Surgeon General right or wrong when suggested we not wear masks?
who knows? This is a trial and error situation. It was still spreading at an alarming rate. so let's try this. It's still spreading, well let's try something else.
quote:
Once again,this isn't an either or scenerio ànd if theres any time to question the so called experts it's now.
bullshite. Do you think they are sitting around with their thumbs up their asses? They are doing everything they can 24/7. Again, mankind has never seen the likes of this virus. It's new and they are learning everything they can about it as fast as they can.
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 1:45 am
Posted on 4/10/20 at 8:23 am to LSU Patrick
quote:yeah because it totally is up to the fans
but the fans will be ready for football by August.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 10:19 am to RD Dawg
quote:
This what kills me.NOBODY is saying NO MITIGATION.Why is this argument always phrased this way?
Because plenty of idiots have said that. That was the Fox News story for quite a while
Posted on 4/10/20 at 10:21 am to Peter167
Nope.
Football will return in the Fall of 2021.
Football will return in the Fall of 2021.
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 2:01 pm
Posted on 4/10/20 at 10:22 am to RD Dawg
quote:
The "experts" at Imperial College? Who predicted 2.2 million deaths?
That was a worst case scenario based on, you didn’t guess it, doing nothing.
Page 8 of 10
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News