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re: Do yall believe there will be football this year?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 4:41 pm to djsdawg
Posted on 4/9/20 at 4:41 pm to djsdawg
quote:
Where did you come up with this number?
I forget where I heard it, it's been awhile. It was like 50% of people don't have symptoms and never get tested and another 30% have really mild symptoms and don't get tested. Tests are generally reserved for the really sick and really rich.
It's a rough estimate. I'm betting it's actually higher than 80%, but 80% provides a better estimate than 0%.
The antibody testing should give a better picture on that part.
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Posted on 4/9/20 at 4:44 pm to Peter167
quote:
Do yall believe there will be football this year?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 4:45 pm to 3down10
quote:
forget where I heard it, it's been awhile.
So it might not even be close to true.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 4:55 pm to djsdawg
quote:
So it might not even be close to true.
Go look it up if you want to confirm or contest it. It's common knowledge only a % of the people who get infected are tested.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 5:15 pm to 3down10
That burden of proof should be on you.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 6:17 pm to 3down10
quote:
Only 20% of the people who get the virus are actually tested for it. That means 80% of the people who get the virus are never tested for it. Those are the people you add.
For example, assume there are 1000 confirmed cases. If you add in the other 80% of the cases that are not tested, you now have 5000 actual cases.
And for the sake of easy math, assume there have been 20 deaths.
Now, if we look for the mortality rate using only confirmed cases, which is how it is being done for the coronavirus, you get (20 / 1000) * 100 = 2% mortality rate.
However, when you add in all the other 80%, you get (20 / 5000) * 100 = 0.4% mortality rate.
That is all well and good bullshite. Every.single.day.tens.of.thousands.are.testing.positive.
The number is soaring by the hour.
The numbers show the mortality rate is much higher than you "claim". You keep doing your made up garbage and standing by the fact this is nothing more than a flu.
Stupid is hard to fix.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 6:24 pm to MrAUTigers
Not to mention the more people who get covid-19 the more demand for ICU beds and ventilators, which we have a finite supply of. If we did not social distance, the disease would spread even more rapidly than it already has and the death rate increase dramatically as our healthcare system would not be able to sustain
Posted on 4/9/20 at 6:32 pm to djsdawg
quote:
That burden of proof should be on you.
I suppose, but when I'm reading and researching I'm not thinking about saving links and things like that.
Which means I'll have to go and look up new links for it. And it's not like I was searching for the number to start with. I was reading articles about the limited number of testing at the time.
A little surprised the number is being challenged really since the lack of testing was somewhat of a hot issue recently.
The WHO will update to include them soon anyway.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 6:36 pm to TacoNash
quote:
ventilators
The majority of people put on ventilators still die anyway. I believe almost 2/3rd of them do.
I was reading an interesting article earlier today about the topic. The ventilators may not be helping people, and in some cases could be doing more damage. They force air into the lungs, however research is starting to suggest that it doesn't matter if oxygen is in the lungs because their blood lacks the iron ion in their hemogoblin to carry the oxygen or co2 from the lungs.
Thus they are basically suffocating once their blood lacks enough of it.
Blood transfusions may be the best way to save people who have gotten to that state.
I'll see if I can find the link, very interesting stuff.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 6:40 pm to MrAUTigers
quote:
That is all well and good bullshite. Every.single.day.tens.of.thousands.are.testing.positive.
The number is soaring by the hour.
The numbers show the mortality rate is much higher than you "claim". You keep doing your made up garbage and standing by the fact this is nothing more than a flu.
Stupid is hard to fix.
We'll see.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 6:44 pm to TacoNash
quote:
which we have a finite supply of. If we did not social distance
We don't what would've happened with a targeted response.
Keep those 60+ inside and away from potential carriers.These are the people that are obviously dying from this but they're also the one's testing positive in disproportionate numbers to other age demos.
Birx predicted 100k+ deaths WITH mitigation and we won't get to half that number IMO.
How did they get those numbers so wrong? Are we doing SUPER mitigation now?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 6:45 pm to Peter167
There will be an abridged football season with limited fans.
People who do not think it will be affected are delusional.
People who do not think it will be affected are delusional.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 6:52 pm to PlateJohnsonIII
quote:
People who do not think it will be affected are delusional.
It's already affected.
Who thinks it won't be affected at all?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 6:55 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
Who thinks it won't be affected at all?
A number of people on this webpage.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:00 pm to 3down10
quote:
The ventilators may not be helping people, and in some cases could be doing more damage
Dr Birx announced today that 40% of the people on ventilators have come off of them and I'm assuming others will be coming off as well.
Sorry don't believe they're more damage.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:15 pm to 3down10
quote:
Blood transfusions may be the best way to save people who have gotten to that state.
Yea I have been reading about that as well and its certainly intersting. However my point still stand with blood transfusions, since blood donations are always needed.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:17 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
Birx predicted 100k+ deaths WITH mitigation and we won't get to half that number IMO.
All early models were based on very limited social distancing but it appears we have done a fair job of actually self quarantining ourselves.
In regards to your keep only a certain age at home tactic, well I just don't see that going well.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:17 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
How did they get those numbers so wrong? Are we doing SUPER mitigation now?
The current predictions aren't that far off the 100k estimate if you understand how the models work.
Probabilistic models by their nature deal with a significant number of unknown variables. As those distributions and their inputs get updated based on more recent and more abundant data, they may change by seemingly large amounts.
In the case of this virus, the output of the models were originally using statistics from countries that were significantly dis-similar to the United States. Now that we are feeding in more representative data, we are getting more realistic outcomes. Keep in mind, that the no mitigation outcome is still probably abysmal and close to the original predictions. The rural nature of the United States just makes the outcome of the "mitigation" version of the model much, much more favorable.
This is intuitive if you imagine the difference between "social distancing" in rural SEC country VS. congested Italy.
I think the current projected death toll will be pretty close to accurate - assuming we don't have a break down w.r.t our current policies.
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 7:22 pm
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:18 pm to 3down10
quote:
little surprised the number is being challenged really since the lack of testing was somewhat of a hot issue recently.
Wouldn’t be the first time someone misread something. It’s a very high and specific #. A shortage of testing doesn’t prove the # is 80.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:31 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
Dr Birx announced today that 40% of the people on ventilators have come off of them and I'm assuming others will be coming off as well.
Sorry don't believe they're more damage.
Sorry, didn't mean more damage as in more damage than the virus. I meant more/additional damage to the lungs long term.
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