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re: Counterpoint - Scheduling (and winning) tough OOC games
Posted on 12/10/24 at 5:35 am to lsusa
Posted on 12/10/24 at 5:35 am to lsusa
quote:
So by my count, Indiana was 10-0 vs teams with a .500 record or worse
Alabama was 3-2 vs teams at .500 or below.
Indiana was 10-0 against losing teams who had played a schedule against what amounts to rent a win teams. Alabama lost 2 games to losing teams who had lost to SEC teams. Oklahoma would have won 8-9 games against Indiana's schedule.
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Posted on 12/10/24 at 5:48 am to Nwo93
quote:
So if georgia had lost to clemson or ga tech this year and missed the playoffs to a team like Indiana or smu you wouldn't be pissed ??
Certainly would be. Alabama is obviously one of the top 6-8 teams in the nation, at least. UGA was obviously one of the 4 best last season and got left out and many of us UGA fans whined like mashed kitties. Anyone who doubts Alabama would have made a deep run in the CFP, especially on the UGA side of the bracket, is either being obtuse or does not know much about college football.
SOS is not level across CFB and will no be until the dead wood is removed from the looming super conference. Take a look at the SOS of Big10 and SEC teams - it is not comparable and the disparity is even more between the SEC and anyone else. Notre Dame is also in the group where SOS was far easier to navigate.
Texas is an outlier BUT they, Tennessee and UGA are all poised to prove this point without question.....would anyone not take the SEC against the field straight up???? All three have tough, physical defenses and offensive lines of scrimmage....and in a one game season that usually comes out on the right end of a game. No one would be shocked to see UT and UT playing one another to see who plays UGA in the final. No one would predict, right now, SMU, Arizona State, Boise State or Indiana being anywhere near the final. Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State maybe....which is where CFB is - the Big10 and the SEC are playing a different game....and the SEC version is demonstrably tougher than the BIG10 version.
Posted on 12/10/24 at 5:49 am to koreandawg
quote:
But the debate was never Indiana. If the problem is Indiana played no one but OSU and when they did they got their arse kicked, many teams still can say they should've gotten in over that. That includes Miami, S. Carolina, BYU and Ole Miss.
South Carolina and Ole Miss both have legit claims.....Miami and BYU both played rent a win schedules.
Posted on 12/10/24 at 5:52 am to lsusa
I'm not sure about SOR, but SOS and FPI from ESPN as far as I understand it start with preset "Priors", that is preseason expectations. FPI I believe also adds in ESPN's determination of talent too? Or did at one point?
The rankings can get very circle jerky. I remember a little over a decade ago, wanna say 2013, and SOS said the hardest schedules were all the Pac 12 teams. Half the conference was ranked and self-reinforcing.
edit: It was 2013. Maybe other years, but 5 of the top 6 hardest SOS's were in the Pac 12 that year. Apparently.
Not saying SOS is a useless stat, but it tends to self-reinforce. Most of ESPN's shite is suspect.
The rankings can get very circle jerky. I remember a little over a decade ago, wanna say 2013, and SOS said the hardest schedules were all the Pac 12 teams. Half the conference was ranked and self-reinforcing.
edit: It was 2013. Maybe other years, but 5 of the top 6 hardest SOS's were in the Pac 12 that year. Apparently.
Not saying SOS is a useless stat, but it tends to self-reinforce. Most of ESPN's shite is suspect.
This post was edited on 12/10/24 at 5:55 am
Posted on 12/10/24 at 5:54 am to lsusa
You can't cry about strength of schedule when you lose to two of the weakest teams in your own conference.
The OCC schedule did not keep Alabama out of the playoffs. Vanderbilt and Oklahoma kept Alabama out of the playoffs.
The OCC schedule did not keep Alabama out of the playoffs. Vanderbilt and Oklahoma kept Alabama out of the playoffs.
Posted on 12/10/24 at 6:00 am to captdalton
quote:
SEC teams had the 5 hardest schedules in the country, 7 of the top 10, and 13 of the top 20.
The SEC had 12 of 16 teams ranked in the top 30 by FPI. 75% of the league. Only two teams were ranked 50th or worse. That is why the SEC is such a grind.
By comparison, the Big 10 had 7 teams ranked in the top 30, and 6 teams ranked outside the top 50. The ACC had 4 teams ranked in the top 30, and 8 teams ranked outside the top 50.
Yet the Big 10 got the most bids and the ACC took an at large slot from the SEC, where there were three teams who had a better resume.
As fans all we can do is bitch and moan about it BUT bitching and moaning is what a squeaky wheel that gets greased is doing. If it can happen to Alabama it can happen to anyone in the SEC....it happened to UGA last year, it happened to South Carolina this year. There is simply no scenario where ATM, LSU, USC, Alabama, Ole Miss, Florida and Missouri are not better than Indiana, SMU, Arizona State and probably Clemson and Notre Dame.
UGA is playing with one its worst teams in years and is 4-0 against playoff teams already. The rest of y'all had to play that team, 2 of you beat that team and those who did neither played those 2 teams. On top of that some of you played playoff teams or near playoff teams and lost but were competitive early in the season. There is nothing on earth better than kicking Alabama fans when they are down, as a UGA fan it is about all we can do with Alabama fans, our team certainly is unable to do it on the field much - but the reality is Alabama is obviously one the best 6 -12 teams in the nation....and so is Ole Miss and South Carolina and arguably ATM, Missouri, late season Florida and LSU. Vandy would be a 9 win at worst winner with Indiana, Arizona State's, SMUs, Clemson and maybe even Notre Dame's schedule.
Posted on 12/10/24 at 6:13 am to Blackadder
quote:
You can't cry about strength of schedule when you lose to two of the weakest teams in your own conference.
The OCC schedule did not keep Alabama out of the playoffs. Vanderbilt and Oklahoma kept Alabama out of the playoffs.
Vandy and Oklahoma are playoff contenders with Indiana, SMU, Boise State and Arizona State's schedule.
I don't think the Alabama AD is talking about what Alabama may or may not do in the future because Alabama is going to play 8 and maybe 9 SEC teams every year....their schedule is going to be about as tough as they get no matter who they play OOC. The point he was making is this is not the case in the rest of CFB....it ONLY exists in the SEC. Every other conference schedule pales in comparison. He is spot on and doing the work for EVERYONE in the conference....it should matter. The Big10, ACC, Big12, Mountain West and all the others CAN play a tougher OOC slate and make the SOS closer to level....there is NO incentive for them to do so and the only incentive available is to put teams like South Carolina, Ole Miss and Alabama in the 12 team field ahead of the Indiana, SMU and Arizona States of the world. Alabama's AD can't do anything about Alabama's SOS - he can make it harder, he is hard pressed to make it easier, if he could ALL SEC ads would do so. What he is doing is pointing out the obvious....the rest of CFB outside of the SEC does not play the same game in the regular season and are rewarded for having done so. Greg Sankey should be weighing in....ESPN should be weighing in.....the SEC is providing a superior product during the regular season and is penalized for it in the post season. And again, if it can happen to Alabama it won't nearly as much thinking when it comes to anyone else in the conference outside of maybe Texas.....they will brush the rest of us off like so much dust with no more thought than they gave South Carolina and Ole Miss this year.
Posted on 12/10/24 at 7:33 am to AwgustaDawg
Why's ASU in this? Indiana didn't beat a single top 25 team. SMU didn't beat a single top 25 team. Texas didn't beat a single top 25 team. Penn State beat 1 in Illinois.
ASU beat 2 of them. The low ASU SOS is because Utah, Arizona, Kansas and Oklahoma State, all preseason top 25 teams, shite the bed. K State too. Beat them on the road and they're kind of in the middle in that they were ranked and supposed to be good, but still only went 8-4. Happens, right?
ASU's the only team that Cam Rising actually played against, and they basically retired him.
ASU beat 2 of them. The low ASU SOS is because Utah, Arizona, Kansas and Oklahoma State, all preseason top 25 teams, shite the bed. K State too. Beat them on the road and they're kind of in the middle in that they were ranked and supposed to be good, but still only went 8-4. Happens, right?
ASU's the only team that Cam Rising actually played against, and they basically retired him.
This post was edited on 12/10/24 at 7:37 am
Posted on 12/10/24 at 8:10 am to AwgustaDawg
quote:
wall of text
You have to let the other conference champions and conference contenders in. Otherwise it's not a national championship playoff, it's an SEC playoff.
We have three teams in the playoffs. One of them should win the national championship.
We are the dominant conference and it will show up in the playoffs. There will be an SEC team as the national champion this year. Bookmark this post.
Posted on 12/10/24 at 8:11 am to wablty
quote:
ASU's the only team that Cam Rising actually played against, and they basically retired him.
Mississippi State was 2-10 and winless in conference play. They got blown out by Toledo. Arizona State was one of only two FBS teams who Mississippi State kept it within one touchdown, 23-30 on the road at ASU. The other FBS team was 2-10 UMass, who Mississippi State beat. . When I think of Arizona State, I think about how they looked against the worst team in the SEC.
Posted on 12/10/24 at 8:15 am to captdalton
ASU won. And they got better. Do we wanna talk about Old Dominion and South Carolina? Or did they just get better too?
Like yeah the margin of victory should have been a lot better against Mississippi State. Texas State too.
I'm just saying there are a whole slew of teams that didn't beat anyone good. ND, Texas, et al.
ASU beat two 10-2 teams. Why are they with the "didn't beat anyone" teams? They did, at least moreso than several others.
Like yeah the margin of victory should have been a lot better against Mississippi State. Texas State too.
I'm just saying there are a whole slew of teams that didn't beat anyone good. ND, Texas, et al.
ASU beat two 10-2 teams. Why are they with the "didn't beat anyone" teams? They did, at least moreso than several others.
This post was edited on 12/10/24 at 8:48 am
Posted on 12/10/24 at 9:00 am to lsusa
quote:
Actually, using the rank can be deceiving, because it doesn’t actually provide a valid measurement of anything. It’s possible that the gap between two teams right next to each other can be greater than two other teams who are 30 spots apart in the “rankings”.
That is one of the dumbest statements I have ever read here. And that is a very high bar to clear. Congrats I guess.
quote:
So here you’re taking about “projected” data rather than actual data.
Here is some real data.
Just for fun, let’s see how accurate FPI was in predicting wins. Here is each school, their FPi, and how they fared against out of conference P4 schools (whose FPI I also listed).
Texas (1): 1-0, beat #30 Michigan
Alabama (4): 1-0, beat #49 Wisconsin
Georgia (5): 2-0, beat #15 Clemson and #38 GT
Tennessee (7): 1-0, beat #65 NC State
Ole Miss (8): 1-0, beat #88 Wake
USCe (14): 1-0, beat #15 Clemson
Texas A&M (16): 0-1, lost to #2 ND
LSU (17): 1-1, lost to #18 USC, beat #59 UCLA
MIZ (20): 1-0; beat #48 BC
FLA (21): 2-1: lost to # 11 Miami, beat #43 UCF and #85 FSU
OU (26): 1-0, beat # 82 Houston
AUB (29): 0-1, lost to #51 Cal
ARK (36): 0-1, lost to # 69 OSU
Vandy (39): 1-0, beat #34. VA Tech
UK (50): 0-1, lost to #12 Louisville
MSU (67): 0-1, lost to #22 ASU
Take aways.
The SEC was 13-7 against OOC P4 teams.
The 10 SEC teams who finished .500 or better in conference play were 11-2.
The higher ranked FPI school was 16-4.
Well what do you know, there may just be something to this whole strength of schedule and FPI thing.
Posted on 12/10/24 at 9:07 am to wablty
quote:
ASU won. And they got better. Do we wanna talk about Old Dominion and South Carolina? Or did they just get better too?
Your argument seems to be that ASU’s struggle win over Mississippi State was good. But South Carolina’s struggle win over ODU is bad.
Struggle wins are part of football. Georgia struggled with Kentucky. Oregon struggled with Boise and Wisconsin. Texas struggled with Vandy and Mississippi State. Notre Dame lost to NIU. Really good teams find a way to win when they didn’t bring their A game. Other teams don’t.
I challenge you to point out a national champion since NIL and the current portal got rolling in 2021 who didn’t have at least one struggle win.
quote:
ASU beat two 10-2 teams. Why are they with the "didn't beat anyone" teams? They did, at least moreso than several others.
So you think that Alabama should have made it in over SMU. Cool!
Posted on 12/10/24 at 9:21 am to wablty
quote:
Why's ASU in this? Indiana didn't beat a single top 25 team. SMU didn't beat a single top 25 team. Texas didn't beat a single top 25 team. Penn State beat 1 in Illinois. ASU beat 2 of them. The low ASU SOS is because Utah, Arizona, Kansas and Oklahoma State, all preseason top 25 teams, shite the bed. K State too. Beat them on the road and they're kind of in the middle in that they were ranked and supposed to be good, but still only went 8-4. Happens, right? ASU's the only team that Cam Rising actually played against, and they basically retired him.
Indiana has a similar argument. They drew Washington, Michigan, and OSU for conference play. They caught a break with UW and UM falling back to earth after top 2 finishes last year.
We’re going to see a lot more of this going forward with the portal and NIL. Losses matter just as much as wins. Bama beating Georgia but losing to Vandy and 6-6 Oklahoma just makes them a very inconsistent team that couldn’t get it done. Bama wants credit for changing the sheets (Georgia Win) while we ignore their explosive diarrhea in bed (losses to Vandy and OU).
Posted on 12/10/24 at 9:34 am to BradBallard
Yes, and no. Totally agree big conferences are going to make for uneven schedules. It's going to be a mess. What might look tough could be easy. Rosters can change in a heartbeat.
That being said, ASU beat most of the top teams in the Big 12. Didn't play Colorado, but there were 2 other ranked Big 12 teams and ASU beat both of them. Kansas State is the only "receiving votes" one and they beat them on the road.
They had 3 score leads against all 3 in the 2nd half. The BYU ending was wild, but that was mostly because they got cute when they had 1st and goal at the BYU 4 and couldn't quite run the clock out naturally.
ASU passed its tests. They might not be better than Indiana or SMU or whoever, I don't know, but they were clearly the best team on the field against the 3 best teams they played.
That being said, ASU beat most of the top teams in the Big 12. Didn't play Colorado, but there were 2 other ranked Big 12 teams and ASU beat both of them. Kansas State is the only "receiving votes" one and they beat them on the road.
They had 3 score leads against all 3 in the 2nd half. The BYU ending was wild, but that was mostly because they got cute when they had 1st and goal at the BYU 4 and couldn't quite run the clock out naturally.
ASU passed its tests. They might not be better than Indiana or SMU or whoever, I don't know, but they were clearly the best team on the field against the 3 best teams they played.
This post was edited on 12/10/24 at 9:57 am
Posted on 12/10/24 at 9:50 am to captdalton
I think BYU should have made it over SMU, considering they beat SMU head to head. Or at least been in the discussion.
Edit: And that wasn't my point at all regarding the struggle (I missed the above portion originally). ASU won a close game against a bad Mississippi State team. They weren't playing well. South Carolina won a close game against Old Dominion. They weren't playing well. It's kind of the same. As you said, good teams struggle sometimes. W's a W, especially early in the season.
You'd originally made a post that seemed to suggest it was a particularly bad thing that ASU struggled with the worst team in the SEC, and Toledo and all that. Maybe I misunderstood your original point.
Edit: And that wasn't my point at all regarding the struggle (I missed the above portion originally). ASU won a close game against a bad Mississippi State team. They weren't playing well. South Carolina won a close game against Old Dominion. They weren't playing well. It's kind of the same. As you said, good teams struggle sometimes. W's a W, especially early in the season.
You'd originally made a post that seemed to suggest it was a particularly bad thing that ASU struggled with the worst team in the SEC, and Toledo and all that. Maybe I misunderstood your original point.
This post was edited on 12/10/24 at 1:16 pm
Posted on 12/10/24 at 11:29 am to lsusa
quote:
This season, Alabama had a weak non-conference schedule….so the arguement about “not adding future games” doesn’t,
on the surface, appear to be relevant to Bama being left out this year.
You are stupid and incapable of following the conversation.
Posted on 12/10/24 at 11:37 am to lsusa
quote:
Something interesting I found on ESPN’s site is called strength of record.
My biggest takeaway and surprise from this whole thread is that you just found out about strength of record.
Posted on 12/10/24 at 11:44 am to koreandawg
quote:
This is what makes it so funny. Alabama fans and podcasters, etc. etc. are acting as if everyone should stop scheduling tough OOC schedules as if they just played one.
quote:
koreandawg
Jesus Christ. Literally every Bama thread I read, whatever it is, the first dumb frick response by a person who clearly doesn't understand what's going on is always this guy. Everyone seems to follow along, except this guy.
People aren't saying the above. This point is too nuanced for your simple brain.
Posted on 12/10/24 at 11:44 am to lsusa
Nope. Cant lose to an OU Team struggling that bad or to Vandy, period. Losing matters no matter how people want to ignore it!
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