Buying stock in SEC programs....

Based on my evaluations and predictions I'm going to break down the short term, one to three year outlook for the 12 SEC programs. The success level is based on each program's fanbase being satisfied the program reached it's potential with end of year results at the peak point some time between 1 and 3 years from now.

Vanderbilt. We won't discuss much here b/c it should be the conferences ultimate bottom feeder. They won a bowl game last year which was their first in 25 years. Bobby Johnson has beat everyone in the east except Florida but has played Florida close. Strong Buy.

Mississippi State. Most years this should be the west's bottom feeder. To be honest with you I do not like Mullen's spread offense if it's going to resemble Florida's and exclusively keep the QB in the shotgun. Hopefully it will work for them so they can get to a bowl game but his tenure could be as short lived as Ed Oregeron's at Ole Miss. I'd Sell based on his offensive philsophy.

Kentucky. Probabaly should rank fifth most years in the east. I think Brooks has done a great job and is doing a fine job recruiting against Louisville which they weren't doing in the early 2000's. 7-5 is a good year for them and a mock NFL draft has them putting 5 guys in after the year which is alot for any SEC team. I think Brooks will retire soon and I can't imagine Joker doing any better than RB. I wouldn't buy it or sell it. I think this is a Hold.

Arkansas. With one of the weakest recruiting bases in the conference I think they rank about 5th in the west in terms of potential. Petrino has a reputation as a play caller but several things he is doing alarm some Razorback faithful. 5star tailback Michael Dyer has stated Petrino is not communicating very well with him, which sort of leads you to believe he's intimidated to recruit Dyer. If this is the trend that could spell trouble for longterm instate recruiting. Many skeptics aren't sold on his conditioning program b/c every tailback has already had a major leg injury and the defense has given up it's share of 80 yard runs to 4.6+ 40 guys including a walk-on fullback in the spring scrimmage. No one could catch a 4.8 fullback for 80 yards? Remember too, when you carry the ball and can't pump your arms freely it's suppose to slow you down more. This fanbase ran Nutt off the year after 7-1 conference record and SEC west title for making the God-aweful Cotton Bowl in 07. Petrino may win one or 2 he shouldn't but I don't see him sniffing the SEC title game or a new years day bowl. This is a strong Sell.

South Carolina. I think is fourth in terms of potential in the East. Unfortunatly the OBC looks like a shell of his old self. I actually think he'll hang it up after this year unless they finish at least #2 in the east. I think Stephen Garcia and over all shoddy and/or lazy QB development will lead the OBC to his ultimate demise. This is a tough one b/c 8-4 with an outback bowl or something should suffice and they've got the talent to do it but too many questions at QB should keep them underacheiving. I'd sell.


Auburn. Alot of people criticize the coaching hire but alot of coaches started their Iowa State tenures with horrific records. I think had Chizic stayed he would have eventually put together a good enough year to get a better job. I also like how he talked at media days. However, I don't like how the PTB is running the program right now. I think Malzhan was a bad fit at Arkansas and will be a bad fit at Auburn b/c Chizic's wants to do the same thing Nutt did in the power run. Malzhan is a spread, throw first coach. With Saban owning that state right now and the fan base soon to be expecting Tubby-like results I'd Sell.

Tennessee. They have perceived good assistant coaches, good recruiters and one of football's godfathers calling the defense. They'll bring in plenty of talent but can an inexperienced Lane put it all together before he gets the axe? Tennessee is a tough first HC job, excluding the disfunctional Raiders. If the fans can be patient for a couple years and consider 9-3 a good season in year three I'd say Buy.

Lsu. I know my Lsu friends are gonna hate me but you have to consider the fact Miles first year without a Saban quarterback was an epic failure. I love the assistant coaching hires this offseason. Even though Les is not a very good football coach I do like him and I do think Chief Chavis and strong recruiting saves him for the next few years and they've got another SEC west in them soon enough. I'd Buy.


Georgia. Richt just wins about 10 games per year which is good enough for Georgia. I am a little bit concerned that Alabama came in to their house with a second year coach and what should have been a lesser talented team totally bombed them in the first half. I'd hold.

Alabama. Nick Saban is pretty damn good. I think he'll win another national championship and hit the road shortly thereafter. Strong Buy for the next three years.

Florida. I think if I were going to buy this stock I'd buy it for this year only. I think when Tebow is gone Meyer's tenure will begin to shape up like Ron Zook's. I know alot of you guys do not necessarily follow the game strategies real close, but I do and I do not think Meyer is a very good football coach when it comes to managing a close game and strong opposing front 7. Buy for 2009 and then Sell it after the year.

Ole Miss. Houston Nutt's track record speaks for itself. At 42-38 at Arkansas that should average out to 6th place overall. That's not too shabby for a program that hoovers between 8th to 10th in potential. The player's like him, play hard for him, he's a good recruiter, he's won or tied for the west 3 times and I think the fire is burning hotter in his belly than it ever has before after his Arkansas departure. Ole Miss wants a West title and I think he'll deliver. Strong Buy.