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SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta Braves Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
47741 posts

Bracketology - Lunardi (updated February 12)
Bracketology - Tuesday, February 12, 2019 (ESPN)

In
Tennessee (#1)
Kentucky (#2)
LSU (#4)
Auburn (#7)
Mississippi St (#7)
Ole Miss (#8)
Alabama (#10)

First Four Out
Florida (#2)



Bubble Watch

SEC
Locks: Tennessee, Kentucky
Should be in: LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn
Work to do: Ole Miss, Alabama, Florida


Should Be In

quote:

LSU Tigers

In just his second season in Baton Rouge, Will Wade is already spending February playing for the best seed possible. Back-to-back wins against the likes of Mississippi State (on the road) and Auburn (at home) from a group that was already showing up on the No. 5 line in mock brackets means LSU's now competing with teams featured in the NCAA bracket preview for optimal position. Winning that upcoming road game at Kentucky would certainly be one way to crash the top four seed lines in style.


quote:

Mississippi State Bulldogs

The Bulldogs are coming off back-to-back losses at home that, had they gone the other way, would have made this a much different discussion. After losing in overtime to LSU, Ben Howland's team came up just short against Kentucky. Naturally, this is still a good-news story in Starkville: MSU's on track to play in the tournament for the first time in 10 years. Still, a win or, better yet, two from those meetings with the Tigers and the Wildcats would have been big for projected No. 7 seed that's 4-6 in the SEC and still has to play road games at Auburn and Tennessee.


quote:

Auburn Tigers

The Tigers are a very good team that, one early-season blowout at home against Washington notwithstanding, hasn't had much success in its biggest games. In fact, after the five-point loss at LSU, Bruce Pearl's men now stand at 1-6 in Quad 1 contests. Auburn will have opportunities to improve that mark, however, thanks to yet-to-be-played home games against Mississippi State and Tennessee and upcoming road trips to Kentucky and Alabama.




Work To Do

quote:

Ole Miss Rebels

The Rebels are demonstrating how persistence of vision manifests itself in tournament selection. Ole Miss has lost five of its past eight, but good work done in November (neutral-floor win over Baylor) and especially in early January (beating Auburn in Oxford and Mississippi State in Starkville) is, for now, keeping Terence Davis & Co. in projected single-seed territory. Barely.



quote:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Welcome to the precarious far reaches of the tournament field. Indeed, if Selection Sunday were held today, Alabama would be one of those "could go either way" teams. Beating Kentucky in Tuscaloosa is a fine start to any résumé, surely, but that's kind of the point. Avery Johnson's men don't have much more to show aside from a home victory over Mississippi State. If they did, the Crimson Tide's position wouldn't be quite so tenuous.



quote:

Florida Gators

Here's a question Bubble Watch fields from time to time: "How in the world is Florida still in Bubble Watch? All the Gators do is lose." Now, wait just a second there, questioner. Bubble Watch will have you know that UF is [checks notes], well, 12-11 overall. But in SEC play, Mike White's guys happen to be, well, 4-6. So, how is Florida still in Bubble Watch? The Gators ranked No. 42 in the NET heading into the loss at Tennessee and, like other teams barely clinging to bubble life, they've played a ton of Quad 1 games and lost all but one (at Arkansas). If that opportunities-to-results ratio doesn't improve, and fast, UF won't be sticking around these parts.
This post was edited on 2/12 at 7:44 am


sand mountainDvalues
Southern Fan
Member since Oct 2018
2903 posts
 Online 

re: Bracketology - Lunardi (updated February 12)
7 seems high for State


Vecchio Cane
Mississippi St. Fan
Ivory Tower
Member since Jul 2016
12439 posts

re: Bracketology - Lunardi (updated February 12)
quote:

Mississippi St (#7)


This is shaping up like another year of needing to make the Tournament Finals to get in for MSU.

Hope I'm wrong


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00
SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta Braves Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
47741 posts

re: Bracketology - Lunardi (updated February 12)
quote:

7 seems high for State



6 Q1 wins, 9 Q1/Q2 wins and 0 Q3/Q4 losses

They've scuffled in SEC play lately but their OOC turned into a gold mine - Cincy, Wofford, Saint Marry's all turned into Q1 wins.


thunderbird1100
LSU Fan
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
55623 posts

re: Bracketology - Lunardi (updated February 12)
MSU had a bit of a front loaded schedule, they should win 5 or 6 of their last 8 SEC games.

Alabama
@ Arkansas
@ Georgia
South Carolina
Missouri
@ Auburn
@ Tennessee
Texas A&M

If they can only manage 4 wins against that they dont belong in the tournament.


SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta Braves Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
47741 posts

re: Bracketology - Lunardi (updated February 12)
quote:

MSU had a bit of a front loaded schedule, they should win 5 or 6 of their last 8 SEC games.


Yep - I mean just winning @ UGA, USC, Missouri, Texas A&M and they are probably in.

Tonight against us is a huge game for them, even just mentally after losing the first 2 games in their little home stand. And you don't want to go into a last 2 weeks that includes @ Auburn and @ Tennessee needing to win 1 or 2 games. That'd be........not ideal.
This post was edited on 2/12 at 7:55 am


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Glorious
Central Florida Fan
Mobile
Member since Aug 2014
10170 posts

re: Bracketology - Lunardi (updated February 12)
In the 5 seasons from 2012 to 2016, 18 SEC teams played in the tourney. This year if 7 get in, that’ll be 20 in the last 3 tournaments. Crazy stuff
This post was edited on 2/12 at 8:00 am


thunderbird1100
LSU Fan
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
55623 posts

re: Bracketology - Lunardi (updated February 12)
quote:

In the 5 seasons from 2012 to 2016, 18 SEC teams played in the tourney. This year if 7 get in, that’ll be 20 in the last 3 tournaments. Crazy stuff



LINK

Times certainly have changed, 3 years ago we would have never imagined the SEC above the ACC and Big East in basketball.


GobyGator
Florida Fan
Under the sea
Member since Jan 2013
84 posts

re: Bracketology - Lunardi (updated February 12)
Florida first four out......we shouldn't even in the conversation this year unless it is NIT.


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