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re: Baseball Polls - May 18
Posted on 5/18/15 at 1:20 pm to Emergent C Steve
Posted on 5/18/15 at 1:20 pm to Emergent C Steve
quote:
My point is you have to have some human input poll wise to take into account the things you mentioned because by and large computers don't.
Agree. Maybe I'm just confused on your wording. The committee is the human input. The polls in this thread (Coaches, D1, etc) should have no input.
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Posted on 5/18/15 at 1:35 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
TCU and their 7 wins vs the top 50 should not be the lock everyone (including myself) is considering them
I would disagree. TCU's resume is much better than either DBU or MSU.
TCU won the B12 going away. They also have a 4 RPI. They have a series win on the road vs ASU. They won 2 of 3 at the Dodger Classic vs a few teams in the national seed discussion.
The problem with DBU and MSU is they have too many warts. TCU only has the 1 (too few top 50 games) and it's one all 3 share. DBU didn't win their conference. They don't have any good weekend wins. MSU has no OOC wins of note and have a weak SOS. They have a borderline RPI.
I really don't think you can look at TCU's overall resume and think it pales to DBU or MSU. TCU is a lock.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 1:39 pm to Farmer1906
LSU IS tGOAT
Posted on 5/18/15 at 1:43 pm to Farmer1906
Why is it that you and tmc know so much more about college baseball than any of the LSU fans that participate in these threads? 
It's not a knock on them but you would think with such a winning tradition they would grasp how these things work. But you keep having to explain it to them (and myself) which is very generous and patient of you guys
It's not a knock on them but you would think with such a winning tradition they would grasp how these things work. But you keep having to explain it to them (and myself) which is very generous and patient of you guys
Posted on 5/18/15 at 1:44 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Its LSU. They can never get enough attention.
We earn our attention
A&M bitches and flames for it
Good thread though...
Posted on 5/18/15 at 1:46 pm to tmc94
Who cares if they rana way with the Big XII if there are no good teams in the Big XII outside of OSU and TCU. They lost the weekend series to OSU (likely 2 seed) and KSU (not even close to making the tourney). Outside of that they racked up wins vs teams with RPIs 74-125 in conference. They're 4-4 vs the top 25 with an SOS of 67. DBU & MSU each faced each other (better than OSU) and Bradley (better than anyone else in the Big XII). DBU & MSU had 8 and 6 wins vs the top 50 and had an SOS of 24 and 84. TCU has a lot of the same warts DBU & MSU have. While I do give TCU an edge, I don't by much. Their resumes are similar.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 1:50 pm to Old Sarge
I'm pretty sure I have a grasp on what is going on. You obviously haven't been reading everything. Your buddy Farmer doesn't even think TCU is a lock, when they really are.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 2:01 pm to bubbz
quote:
I'm pretty sure I have a grasp on what is going on. You obviously haven't been reading everything. Your buddy Farmer doesn't even think TCU is a lock, when they really are.
I said they shouldn't be the lock we all (and I included myself) consider them to be.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 2:06 pm to bubbz
quote:
TCU and their 7 wins vs the top 50 should not be the lock everyone (including myself) is considering them.
Reading comprehension PASS [FAIL]
You really did go to Baylor didn't you
Just kidding; anyone could have misread Farmers comments right?
This post was edited on 5/18/15 at 2:49 pm
Posted on 5/18/15 at 2:09 pm to Old Sarge
I did misread, my apologies, and no I didn't go to Baylor.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 2:29 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Who cares if they rana way with the Big XII if there are no good teams in the Big XII outside of OSU and TCU
right. My point is not that it's a positive they did. It's that DBU in the same situation did not. It's more of a wart for DBU than some huge positive for TCU.
quote:
They lost the weekend series to OSU (likely 2 seed) and KSU (not even close to making the tourney).
Virtually everyone lost at least 1 weekend series they shouldn't have. It's not really a negative. I mean, even LSU lost to UK and UCLA got swept a the Dodger Classic (which is obv worse than just losing the series).
TCU went on the road and won a series vs the #3 team in the PAC and won 2 of 3 vs 3 teams being discussed as hosts in the Dodge Classic when it was best on best (vs midweek when some kid throws that you'll never see in a Super). Those are very powerful statements that neither DBU nor MSU can make.
quote:
Outside of that they racked up wins vs teams with RPIs 74-125 in conference.
Obviously this is true. But TCU also has 13 RPI 50-100 wins vs DBU's 7 for instance. I agree that those are less important because for the most part they aren't tourney teams, but it's not insignificant.
50-100 teams are ones that can beat you in a series because every team has ups and downs. DBU and MSU didn't have to go thru that. The bottom half of the MVC is fricking awful. ffs, there are only 8 teams and one of them is sitting on 44 losses.I think you have to take a deeper dive into the conference beyond just RPI because an 8 team conference with multiple teams not remotely competitive is not the same as a bunch of mediocre teams. Mediocre teams can jump up and bite now and then
Posted on 5/18/15 at 2:59 pm to Old Sarge
quote:
Why is it that you and tmc know so much more about college baseball than any of the LSU fans
How did you come to this conclusion?
Posted on 5/18/15 at 3:01 pm to civiltiger07
You and Bbap are exceptions to this rule.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 3:03 pm to tmc94
It is going to be interesting to see if the committee gives DBU a National Top 8 seed. It has never happened before that the #1 RPI team didn't get a national seed.
Only their RPI ranking puts them in the conversation, and they have just because of the number of road games they played. Just about every other metric would have DBU as a bubble team to host a regional.
Only their RPI ranking puts them in the conversation, and they have just because of the number of road games they played. Just about every other metric would have DBU as a bubble team to host a regional.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 3:05 pm to Old Sarge
quote:
You and Bbap are exceptions to this rule.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 3:14 pm to UserName69
quote:
Perfect Game
Describes LSU perfectly.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 3:30 pm to civiltiger07
D1 Chat
Not SEC, but we have been disccusing national seeds.
quote:
Comment From Ktown
In 2011, the Aggies lost their ace, John Stilson. They still had two stud starters in Michael Wacha and Ross Stripling. The Aggies had won the Big 12 regular season and conference championships. By all measurements, they deserved a national seed. However, they were denied due to losing an ace. They went on to defeat FSU in a super regional in Talahassee to get to the CWS. This year, many see the Aggies as a secure national seed, but you all knocked them out of the national seed spot last week. Does the return of Tyler Stubblefied give the Aggies a bump in the national seed ratings?
Aaron Fitt:
We knocked them out last week because they had lost three of their last four series, and momentum matters. But yeah, Stubblefield’s return does provide a nice little boost, and in this case I think the committee should factor that in, because it is so impressive what A&M has done this year without Stubblefield and Minter, and now they’re getting one of those guys back. I think that should be a factor, yes. But ultimately, I’m not sure that will be enough of a factor to get the Aggies a national seed over other deserving contenders. We’ll see…
quote:
Comment From Matt
You guys really have knocked it out of the park this year. Great work on a first year of D1, loving it. You';ve answered this question in a number of ways already in terms of SECT and pecking order, so we know what’s up for grabs for the winners (Fla, A&M and Vandy). But what’s the floor for Vandy if they go one and done? Still a host, right?
Aaron Fitt:
Thanks for the kind words, Matt. Yes, I think Vandy still hosts even with a poor showing this week.
quote:
Comment From Ralph
FSU vs UF Supers matchup? Who ya got?
Aaron Fitt:
Should that matchup materialize, I’ve got the Gators.
quote:
Comment From Mike
How does Vandy winning the East by one game over Florida matter with unbalanced schedules and the
Aaron Fitt:
It doesn’t matter much — I still have Florida ahead in the pecking order. But it is a minor factor, just a piece of the puzzle
quote:
Comment From Dan Ryan
Gentlemen, What will it take for Vandy to crack the national seed list?
Aaron Fitt:
Hi Dan! I think basically Vandy needs Florida to fizzle, and the Dores need to have a solid week in Hoover. We could potentially see 3 national seeds out of the SEC, but I don’t think that’s too likely given the number of contenders in other conferences. But Vandy is very much still in the mix. It helps a bit that the Commodores won the SEC East by a game over Florida.
quote:
Comment From Mike
Let’s say Florida goes 0-2 this week, are they out of the national seed race?
Aaron Fitt:
I imagine the Gators would probably get jumped by one of the other SEC teams in that scenario. There’s not a huge gap between Florida, Vandy and Texas A&M — they’re all still jockeying for position heading into this week. Plenty to play for in Hoover.
quote:
Comment From Rod
LSU 1B Chris Chinea has really blown up over the 2nd half of the season (11HR in last 30 games), and he has become a decent defensive player at his position. What do you think Chinea’s draft prospects are?
Aaron Fitt:
He’ll get drafted, but I still don’t get the sense he’s a higher-end prospect. He’s got a lot of strength, but I don’t know that his hit tool is going to play at higher levels. And you need to really, really hit to make it as a first baseman.
quote:
Comment From Josh
Do 5 Texas Schools get to host? RIce, Aggies, DBU, Houston, TCU? Also does fsu have to go 3-1 to get a host?
Aaron Fitt:
I think we’ll see 4 from the state of Texas, with Rice winding up on the road…. but maybe just across town at UofH. That would be pretty neat.
quote:
Comment From Justin
What are your thoughts on the season Benintendi has had. And any way Arkansas can earn a host spot.
Aaron Fitt:
Incredible season — feel like he’s a very strong contender for national player of the year honors. Hitting for average and power, stealing bases — just a very special year.
Not SEC, but we have been disccusing national seeds.
quote:
Comment From MiamiKnight
1. Fact or Fiction: Miami is a national seed lock by going at least 2-1 in the ACCT
Aaron Fitt:
Fact.
quote:
Comment From USC Come On Blue
I know it doesnt matter but If they were picking today, who gets the #1 national seed, UCLA or LSU? LSU in stronger conference with better overall record and road record. UCLA with better non conference SOS and no series lost.
Aaron Fitt:
Very tough. That nonconference SOS gap is enormous — UCLA 24, LSU 246. The rest of the metrics are fairly similar, but LSU obviously has an edge in top 25 record (7-3 vs. 2-4). We’ve been going with LSU, but I’ve got a feeling the committee may go with UCLA based on that nonconference SOS…
quote:
Comment From Greg
Last week you guys had Florida above Miami, A&M and Vanderbilt, and the Gators added a top-25 RPI series win over Auburn. Assuming that’s still the case plus FSU’s series loss to Clemson, am I correct to think Florida has the upper hand out of all the teams fighting to get a national seed?
Kendall Rogers:
My order, as of this hour, would be Florida, Miami, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M … but things could change in an instant this week.
quote:
Comment From JJ
What does Arkansas need to do at the sec tourney to move into the regional host conversation?
Kendall Rogers:
Hogs are at 37 in the RPI going into the tournament. Not seeing that as a possibility at this point.
quote:
Comment From Jason in NOLA
Which potential 2-seeds are the most dangerous? Fullerton and Arkansas?
Aaron Fitt:
I’ll go Arkansas, Rice, UC Santa Barbara, maybe Nevada could be a 2 (and as I just mentioned I think the Wolf Pack is dangerous).
Posted on 5/18/15 at 3:30 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Comment From Derek
If Ole Miss were to sweep through the SECT and win the tournament championship on Sunday, would 35 wins, an SECT title, series wins over Vandy/Florida, season splits vs UL/A&M, and #1 SOS in the country be enough to get the Rebs into a regional hosting position?
Kendall Rogers:
Derek,
I don’t really see that right now, as there are just too many teams in the league and nationally ahead of the Rebels, but that run would certainly make them an extremely good No. 2 seed going into the postseason.
quote:
Comment From Jeff
Alright UK got 2/3 from Mizzou, is tomorrow a must win, or would they have a shot after being one and done in conference tournament?
Aaron Fitt:
I’d feel much better about Kentucky’s chances with a win tomorrow. No. 56 in the RPI usually doesn’t cut it for an SEC team… They’ve got some things in their favor, like those marquee series wins at Florida and LSU, but they’re really right on the edge. A couple more wins would help quite a bit…
quote:
Comment From Grant
With an RPI of 23 heading into the SECT, is Auburn “in” a regional even with a loss on Tuesday, or do they need a W to guarantee a bid?
Kendall Rogers:
Grant,
With a 13-17 record in the SEC, nothing is set in stone for the Tigers despite having a Top 25 RPI. There have been other teams in the past with similar RPIs get left out because of poor marks in league play. It’s dangerous territory.
Again, not SEC, but we were just talking about it.
quote:
Comment From M
Will TCU be a national seed?
Aaron Fitt:
Probably.
quote:
Comment From KevinGBT
RPI seems like one of the biggest factors taken into consideration by the committee. For bubble teams, what is the magic number to have a chance, and then feel comfortable in your opinion. Thanks for all of the hard work you guys put into College Baseball!
Kendall Rogers:
Kevin,
Once you get into the 50s, things start to get extremely dicey. And they were in dicey at times in the 40s. So, if you’re approaching 60, you’ve got some work to do. See: Maryland, Missouri, South Carolina, etc.
quote:
Comment From John
Does Arkansas have a chance to host if they make it to Saturday in the SEC tournament?
Aaron Fitt:
Honestly, I could see it. The only thing holding Arkansas back is its RPI, which is up to No. 38. Going 17-12 in the SEC isn’t easy, and they also have 7 wins vs. top 25. But they probably need to get up to around 20 in the RPI to have a shot.
quote:
Comment From KevinGBT
Hey guys, I know you get tired of us asking but…..what is the magic number for the Gamecocks need to win in Hoover to make it into the NCAA’s? Also, I know it was only 1 win vs LSU, but does that go into consideration if the Gamecocks get a few W’s in Hoover and sit on the bubble? Speaking of LSU, IMO this might be the most complete team 1-9 to lace them up a Carolina Stadium….Holy Cow…
Kendall Rogers:
Kevin,
I don’t think there’s a magic number, but I was just talking to Aaron about that on Google Messenger. I think the Gamecocks need at least three wins in Hoover to make the postseason. And I’m not sure how feasible that is. I guess we’ll find out?
quote:
Comment From Tammy
Most dangerous team in Texas who is definitely one to look out for this postseason? Houston, DBU, TCU, Rice? Also, who would win in a postseason game if UH and DBU played each other? Thanks
Aaron Fitt:
I think TCU is still the best team in Texas, and I would actually put DBU next. I think the Patriots have better arms than Houston, and I would give Dallas Baptist an edge in that matchup.
Kendall Rogers:
I would go TCU, Texas A&M, Dallas Baptist and then Houston. TCU is the cream of the crop right now, and A&M has the best offense in the state by a mile.
quote:
Comment From Steven
Its very interesting that the 4 SEC Bubble teams (Missouri vs South Carolina) and (Auburn vs Kentucky) will play Tuesday in the SEC tournament. I’m wondering your thoughts on these teams chances of making a regional? Would you say its a must-win for all 4 teams? Also, its hard to imagine a team ranked 23 in the RPI, with the #3 strength of schedule and 12 wins against RPI top 50 teams not making it to a regional. I’m talking about Auburn of course, but then again I’m biased so thoughts on that? Thanks for the chat as always and your dedication to college baseball!!
Kendall Rogers:
Steven,
I will let Aaron weigh in on this as well, but here’s my order of “must-win importance” with those teams, most to least important:
1) South Carolina
2) Missouri
3) Auburn
4) Kentucky
Aaron Fitt:
I agree with Kendall’s ranking there. You’re right, Auburn has some nice things going for it, but teams that go 13-17 in the SEC are typically right on the bubble — some years they get in, some years they don’t. The SOS, RPI and top 50 wins are enough to make me put Auburn in over a lot of other bubble teams.
quote:
Comment From TigerDore
What does Vandy have to do in Hoover to lock up a national seed? Win the whole enchilada, or just get three wins or so? Also, if LSU goes “Two and BBQ” in Hoover, do they slide lower than the #2 national seed?
Kendall Rogers:
Tiger,
I think LSU is pretty safely in that 1 or 2 spot. And honestly, it doesn’t matter one iota if LSU is 1 or 2 in the national seeds. Hell, history suggests you’d rather be No. 2. Anyway, a a lot of it depends on A&M and Florida, but Vandy would probably need to beat A&M to get to three wins, so I’d have Vandy ahead of the Aggies (if that happens). Lots to be determined. BTW, how about the potential for Carson Fulmer vs. A&M’s potent lineup? Love those potential intriguing matchups in Hoover this week.
quote:
Comment From Joe
The Rebs have played pretty well the past couple weeks. Do you think Ole Miss can get hot and make some noise in the NCAA tournament?
Kendall Rogers:
Joe,
Absolutely. I said that in last night’s Podcast. I kind of feel like Virginia and Ole Miss are probably at a really high level right now, and could be really scary in the postseason. I really like the Trent/Bramlett combo, and I think OM has the other arms needed to rise up, too, with Weatherby, Short, etc.
quote:
Comment From LAVSTER
What does Missouri have to do this week to see a regional? Or is it a lost cause after dropping 2 games to UK this past weekend?
Kendall Rogers:
LAVSTER,
Missouri has a mixed bag of resume points. For instance, the Tigers do have a pretty solid conference mark in the toughest conference in college baseball. However, the Record vs. RPI Top 50, latest trends, RPI, etc., are not going their direction. I definitely think the Tigers need to win a couple of games in Hoover to help their case … and even then it might not be enough. If Mizzou is in our projections tomorrow, it will be slightly.
This post was edited on 5/18/15 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 5/18/15 at 3:53 pm to tmc94
quote:
Sorry, Mizzou St is not worth discussing in the national seed picture. They have 6 top 50 wins all year and they don't have a single OOC win of significance. Agreed, DBU finishing 2nd to them is a major flaw, but winning a weak conference does not put you in the discussion.
If Mizzou State wins their conference tournament, watch them get a national seed. The committee would love to have two midwest schools be national seeds, and they will justify it anyway they can.
LSU
UCLA
Louisville
Illinois
TCU
UF
Miami
Vandy/A&M/Mizzou State
Posted on 5/18/15 at 4:13 pm to Jwho77
I also think Missouri St is in the discussion if they win they conference tourney, but some in this thread don't believe that.
I really believe the SEC will get 2 national seeds. I've thought 3 all along, but I think the winner of Missouri St/DBU in the MVC tourney gets the 8th seed. The only way I don't see that is if A. Miami has a horrible showing in the ACC tourney, or Florida vs either A&M/Vandy in SEC Championship. I think that would be enough to land 3 national seeds in the SEC.
You can't always look at just credentials, the committee would love to handout a national seed to a non power school. It's great for college baseball. It would not shock me at the least.
On another note, D1 Baseball comes out with projections tomorrow. It will be interesting to see who is on that 8th line. My hunch is DBU.
I really believe the SEC will get 2 national seeds. I've thought 3 all along, but I think the winner of Missouri St/DBU in the MVC tourney gets the 8th seed. The only way I don't see that is if A. Miami has a horrible showing in the ACC tourney, or Florida vs either A&M/Vandy in SEC Championship. I think that would be enough to land 3 national seeds in the SEC.
You can't always look at just credentials, the committee would love to handout a national seed to a non power school. It's great for college baseball. It would not shock me at the least.
On another note, D1 Baseball comes out with projections tomorrow. It will be interesting to see who is on that 8th line. My hunch is DBU.
This post was edited on 5/18/15 at 4:16 pm
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