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re: Bama's "0" vs Georgia's "D."
Posted on 10/15/20 at 6:36 pm to BamafaninFlorida
Posted on 10/15/20 at 6:36 pm to BamafaninFlorida
quote:
You are actually right...running game has disappeared, they don’t run block well anymore. They got yards late last week late in the game with an inferior opponent.
I'm not even looking at your last 3 opponents.
I'm looking at UGAs last 17 opponents when I'm looking at what we will do against the offensive line. Any issues running are not Bama issues with the line/TEs. They are with the personnel and depth at UGA.
quote:
Around 8-10 yrs ago Saban was the master of adjustment, but I haven’t seen that in at least 3 years.
Saban adjusted 2 years ago against UGA. We were harassing Tua in the pocket. But we didnt have the linebacker play after Roquan to defend against Hurts.
Saban adjusted 3 years ago against UGA and we didnt have the DBS to keep up with the Bama talent.
quote:
I guess 6 nattys is enough...
a-hole. Lol
This post was edited on 10/15/20 at 6:38 pm
0
Posted on 10/15/20 at 6:40 pm to dhuck20
Literally both teams have small sample sizes and neither Alabama’s offense or UGA’s defense has faced an elite opposite unit. So really while it’s certainly possible both these teams have the top units on each side, arguing over the stats of their opposition is completely pointless. In a 3 game stretch if bama has scored 50 on a team and uga has held them to around 250 yards then yeah the stats in totality are gonna look ugly. The best way to compare imo is matchups specifically.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 6:58 pm to meansonny
quote:
Take out the UGA game and Tennessee is the 5th best scoring offense in conference (29th in the country).
Not really. If you're actually looking at scoring OFFENSE, their average is 29.5 if you remove the UGA game (1 of the TDs was a pick 6 against SC). That would still be enough for about 7th (where they're currently at) but nationally they'd fall around 45th.
quote:
Take out the UGA game and Tennessee is the 3rd best rushing offense (27th in the country). Ahead of Bama.
Without the UGA game they avg 4.34ypc, which isn't bad. Bama is at 5.11ypc though.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 6:58 pm to HighTide_ATL
Lol
Ok, dear.
Ok, dear.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:00 pm to Kcstills17
quote:
In a 3 game stretch
You can stretch UGAs sample size to 17 games.
It is the same players. Same coordinators. And the results are similar.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:02 pm to meansonny
You're mad at me because you're not good at stats?
Weird.
Weird.
This post was edited on 10/15/20 at 7:03 pm
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:07 pm to HighTide_ATL
quote:
You're mad at me because you're not good at stats?
So tell me how many websites compile scoring stats and back out defensive and special teams scores? Did you take the time to back out all 70 teams?
Or are you pulling crap out of your arse for no productive reason.
As for rushing stats, I used yards per game. I presume that you used rushing yards per attempt. But because you are so thorough about rushing stats, you removed sacks and team yards from the equation? Amirite? Or do you half arse everything.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:17 pm to meansonny
quote:
So tell me how many websites compile scoring stats and back out defensive and special teams scores? Did you take the time to back out all 70 teams?
No I'm just pointing out that if you're doing a critical analysis about scoring OFFENSE, you probably want to exclude defensive scoring. It's not my fault a lot of these sites take the easy way and just use final scores lol
quote:
As for rushing stats, I used yards per game. I presume that you used rushing yards per attempt. But because you are so thorough about rushing stats, you removed sacks and team yards from the equation? Amirite? Or do you half arse everything.
I use ypc because it's more accurate than total yards since it adds a factor of efficiency. In college sacks are runs. I know you're just upset because my response rained on your narrative. If it's any consolation, I do agree Georgia is a main reason those three teams have poorly ranked offenses. That doesn't change the fact that the stats you chose weren't that great in backing up your argument.
Ultimately I like to use a model that removes garbage times stats too...but I don't think they start populating until 4-5 games have been played :(
This post was edited on 10/15/20 at 7:18 pm
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:23 pm to HighTide_ATL
It's simple. Bama needs to control TOP to win the game. Georgia's offense will be slow coming out of the gate, like all season long, and needs enough possessions to get into gear. If Najee Harris is doing work, Georgia's D will eventually have problem from being on the field too long.
UGA needs to dominate the line of scrimmage, get a few timely turnovers and hope that Bennett is eventually up to the challenge, because when they've trouble Bama in the past, it's with the running game - which isn't strong right now.
UGA needs to dominate the line of scrimmage, get a few timely turnovers and hope that Bennett is eventually up to the challenge, because when they've trouble Bama in the past, it's with the running game - which isn't strong right now.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:27 pm to HighTide_ATL
quote:
No I'm just pointing out that if you're doing a critical analysis about scoring OFFENSE, you probably want to exclude defensive scoring
Fair enough. It sounds like you only backed out scoring from Tennessee. How many other teams have you adjusted?
quote:
In college sacks are runs
So are bad snaps. How is that indicative of rushing yards per attempt. So are taking a knee. How is that indicative of rushing yards per attempt.
I hope you are entertaining yourself because I'm laughing at your posts.
I bet you half arse everything in life.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:34 pm to meansonny
quote:
Fair enough. It sounds like you only backed out scoring from Tennessee. How many other teams have you adjusted?
Literally none. I'm not here to crunch a ton of numbers and give you my prediction. My point was it's a poor stat to try and back the argument with, especially since the sample size is just 3 games with minimal crossover opponents so far.
quote:
So are bad snaps. How is that indicative of rushing yards per attempt. So are taking a knee. How is that indicative of rushing yards per attempt.
I hope you are entertaining yourself because I'm laughing at your posts.
I bet you half arse everything in life.
You're talking about outliers that likely don't have a large effect on the stat overall. But again, my point isn't perfect statistics, it's that what you chose to back your argument with was poor. You can always get more granular with statistics, man. But like I said with only 3 games in the books and minimal crossover opponents, you're damn near reading tea leaves.
You're better off comparing actual system/scheme and personnel matchups than just raw stats right now.
No need to be so salty btw lol
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:50 pm to HighTide_ATL
quote:
Literally none. I'm not here to crunch a ton of numbers and give you my prediction. My point was it's a poor stat
quote:
quote:
Take out the UGA game and Tennessee is the 5th best scoring offense in conference (29th in the country).
Not really. If you're actually looking at scoring OFFENSE, their average is 29.5 if you remove the UGA game (1 of the TDs was a pick 6 against SC). That would still be enough for about 7th (where they're currently at) but nationally they'd fall around 45th.
So I back out the UGA game from the Tennessee stats and compare the remainder nationally and in the conference...
And you back out defensive scores from just 1 team and presume new rankings...
And I'm the one who has a poor use of stats. Go home to your momma. You're done here.
quote:
But again, my point isn't perfect statistics,
No shite. Your numbers are half assed.
I'm guessing that you are too chicken shite to give a prediction on Bamas rushing yards and "offensive" scoring output
This post was edited on 10/15/20 at 7:50 pm
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:53 pm to Todd Greene
The way you've used quotations makes it look like you think Bama's offense and Georgia's defense are phony. You can just write, "Bama's O vs. Georgia's D"
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:02 pm to Belue2Scott
quote:
UGA needs to dominate the line of scrimmage,
I think we can with our DLine. I am more worried about Alabama's passing game and our secondary. We tend to allow long passes 2-3 times a game. I'll believe we beat Alabama when we actually do. Hopefully we can this year, but I wouldn't lay any bets down.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:12 pm to meansonny
quote:
So I back out the UGA game from the Tennessee stats and compare the remainder nationally and in the conference...
And you back out defensive scores from just 1 team and presume new rankings...
And I'm the one who has a poor use of stats. Go home to your momma. You're done here.
You used a faulty stat based on a limited sample size to try and back your argument. Yes that is poor use of stats. Mine definitely wasn't perfect, but my point was made just fine.
quote:
No shite. Your numbers are half assed.
I'm guessing that you are too chicken shite to give a prediction on Bamas rushing yards and "offensive" scoring output
I guess it's a matter of "half-assed" numbers vs ones with zero critical thinking involved at all. While I know the stats I used could be examined even further, at least I'm adding actual efficiency to the equation.
I do think UGA has a good chance at stifling Bama's run (Bama's OL is good enough they'll need more than 4 though). I likewise like Bama's WRs deep against UGA's secondary. Mac actually has a really good history of playing under pressure (per PFF his stats were actually better under pressure than in a clean pocket in 2019).
I have no idea how each team is going to approach the other really, so guessing actual rushing only production doesn't really make a ton of sense since UGA could sell out and Bama could go pass heavy. Bama could also affect Bennett and UGA could lean on their run.
To appease you though, I'll give UGA the benefit of the doubt and say it holds Bama to about 70% of it's typical production. Since I think Bama matches up against UGA's offense better than Ole Miss's from a scheme perspective, I'll say they'll hold UGA to about 90% of theirs.
Bama: 396yds, 6.1ypp
UGA: 382yds, 4.8ypp
Split that yardage up however you'd like...score prediction: Bama 35 - UGA 27
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:25 pm to meansonny
quote:
It is the English language. I dont think it could be said any simpler.
And here go again. A grammer lamer corrects grammer and gets it wrong. The correct way to use the word simpler, using the English language that you mention, is to preseed it with the word more. Example: more simpler.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:42 pm to DawgsLife
quote:
I think we can with our DLine. I am more worried about Alabama's passing game and our secondary. We tend to allow long passes 2-3 times a game. I'll believe we beat Alabama when we actually do. Hopefully we can this year, but I wouldn't lay any bets down.
If Georgia can shut down Alabama's passing game and doesn't allow them to score points during the game, I think Georgia wins.
What Georgia will have to do is prevent any Alabama players from crossing the goal-line with a football in their possession.
Alabama will continually try to score so Georgia will have to bring their A-game and keep an eye out for that. Georgia has a great defense and their defense will have to prevent Alabama from taking the ball and going across the white line down there in the end-zone if they want to win the game.
That is what football is really about, if you just take some time out and think about it. You have to prevent the other team from scoring, if you can. For Alabama to win the game, they are going to have to really try to score some points, even while Georgia is really trying to stop them from scoring those points.
It's always like that. I've watched football a long time and I can tell you that both teams will try to score. Both teams will need to really try to stop the other team from scoring too, because that is important also.
In the end, this game will be decided by points on the scoreboard and who has the most of those points when the time allotted for the game expires. An age old question that has never been answered, and can't be answered, is whether it is more important to score points or prevent points from being scored.
No one knows the answer to that question and no one ever will because it can't be answered. To ask the question is folly in and of itself. That is what makes football fun for all us to watch. If we knew all the answers, the excitement is gone. Without excitement, football is not fun and you can't get enjoyment from watching it.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 9:05 pm to HighTide_ATL
quote:
While I know the stats I used could be examined even further, at least I'm adding actual efficiency to the equation.
I'm a Georgia fan. I have never had a problem with "efficiency". Have you never heard of Jake Fromm? There is absolutely nothing wrong with efficiency stats. Your efficient data points (lazy where you adjust defensive production for Tennessee and no other team) is the issue. I welcome efficiency stats. I have no problem with someone posting game stats and someone else replying with ypr or ypp. They are relevant.
quote:
zero critical thinking involved at all.
Points per game and yards per game dont require any critical thinking? That's the hill that you are dying on? Ypg stats are relevant just like efficiency stats. They each tell something. The way this thread is going, summerofgeorge should come in here laughing at your argument (and my usage) of stats as he lays out adjusted for opponent numbers. We are both using elementary/non-critical thinking stats. If you disagree, you are a dumbass
quote:
I do think UGA has a good chance at stifling Bama's run (Bama's OL is good enough they'll need more than 4 though).
Well it's a good thing that we will have 5 when you are empty set, and 6 when you are in 10 personnel, 7 when you are in 11 personnel and 8 when you are in 12 personnel.
quote:
have no idea how each team is going to approach the other really, so guessing actual rushing only production doesn't really make a ton of sense since UGA could sell out and Bama could go pass heavy.
UGA isnt going to commit a safety in the box. Have you read this thread?
quote:
Bama: 396yds, 6.1ypp
UGA: 382yds, 4.8ypp
You chicken shite on the question about rushing yards, but your math at 70% production comes up to 122 rushing yards per game (4.27 ypr for the sophisticated statisticians, amirite?). I will take the under on that one.
quote:
Bama 35 - UGA 27
I can see that score. I wouldn't be shocked by 2 large screw ups by our offense to give Bama 14.
I will support my Dawgs at 30-27 with at least 1 wtf moment by our offense.
This post was edited on 10/15/20 at 9:28 pm
Posted on 10/15/20 at 9:10 pm to SidewalkTiger
God I had forgotten how unsufferable the leg humpers are man.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 9:16 pm to Todd Greene
Our D is amazing, but even the best defenses can't stop an amazing offense if they are on the field too long. It's true Bama's D hasn't been good this year, however our offense is pedestrian at best. The formula to beat UGA is the same as it has been for 4 years...stack the box, dare us to throw. I'm not very confident about this game based on our limitations at QB. If we had a better than average QB, I feel great about this game, but we don't.
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