“Bad Luck”, “bad officiating”, and “losing”, Are they connected?

I would say that in a close game then bad officiating and bad luck has a much higher chance of influencing a game.

People who say "If you had played well officiating wouldn't have a chance to influence the game!" are dumb, too. Close games happen all the time. Sometimes because talent is close. Sometimes because coaching decisions are bad or turnovers or Something else.

Regardless, in close games bad officiating, calls, turnovers, bad luck have a much higher chance of influencing a game.

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I would also say, that there are times a team makes their own luck. While the 2013 Au/UGA game could be considered a game Auburn won on luck, I would also counter that Ricardo Louis created his own luck by staying with the play. The ball glanced off our players and he was there for the catch. Luck? maybe. but he stuck with the play and it paid off.

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Good old saying reflects this:
"Chance favors the prepared mind."

As you said, if a game is close, its outcome is much more likely to hinge on a few plays/calls/outcomes (or even one if the impact is big enough).

I'm much less likely to factor "luck" than I am a really poor or close call in general. One is random happenstance (defender slips, fumble going into the endzone that becomes a touch back instead of a score, etc). Those are at least more in the control of the players on the field. For poor officiating, the implication is that the official blew the call based on what actually happened. You can argue that the "bad calls balance out", but the simple fact is that they frequently don't. One team might get a overreaction late hit on the QB/personal foul called against them that probably shouldn't have happened on a first down converting play. The other team might get a BS Pass Interference penalty called against them late in the game on a third/fourth down when it would have resulted in them getting the ball back. Those are simple bad calls that happen often, but it's clear that even though they're both "15 yard penalties", the weight and impact are nowhere near equivalent. This doesn't even get into much more egregious poor calls.

That doesn't make a win any less well earned by the winner, but it also doesn't negate the fact that a random element mostly outside the control of the teams playing may have had a significant impact.


ETA: of late, it seems like certain officiating crews are more likely to emphasize certain calls. Some focus on ineligible receiver downfield even though it could be called *very* often with the number of RPOs that many teams run. Similarly, holding has long been one of the most subjective calls in football. You could show 50 different officials random videos of offensive line vs defensive line video and the odds are low that you'd get a lot of consensus on what would draw a flag and what wouldn't. Similarly, what constitutes PI varies wildly from game to game.

The inconsistency makes these things harder to plan for, but the hope with these type of calls is that you see some called early against both teams evenly and it sort of sets the tone for what will be allowed and what won't.

In my opinion, when a player is more skilled he alos tends to learn how to get a call. believe me, on the college level it is taught how to hold without getting caught...how to block as a receiver and hold and not get caught. When I could get close enough to a CB, I would bring my hands and arms in close to my body and hook the CB under his shoulder pads and hold him close to my body. He couldn't shake me loose, and I could pretty much turn him any way I wanted to turn him. Because your bodies were so close it was almost impossible to detect.

Yes, good players learn how to position their bodies and when to get an advantage. They will typically not get a call because of this, and it can be a huge advantage.