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Athlon: Gasparilla Bowl Prediction and Preview—Florida vs. UCF
Posted on 12/21/21 at 8:47 am
Posted on 12/21/21 at 8:47 am
quote:
In what one might call a de facto state championship, Florida and UCF will battle it out in St. Petersburg in the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl on Thursday. Since the early parts of the season, the two teams have headed in different directions.
At one point, Florida was 3-1 and ranked in the top 10 after taking now No. 1 Alabama to the wire. The Gators proceeded to lose five of seven games before topping rival Florida State in the regular-season finale to become bowl eligible. Amidst the turmoil, head coach Dan Mullen was fired.
Florida comes in with a record of 6-6 while UCF is 8-4. After a disappointing 3-3 start, which included a season-ending injury to starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel, the Knights closed the regular season by winning five of six. UCF has never defeated a Power 5 team from the Sunshine State. Florida has won the only prior two matchups with the last being a 42-0 shutout in 2006.
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Florida (6-6) vs. UCF (8-4)
Kickoff: Thursday, Dec. 23 at 7 p.m. ET
Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
TV: ESPN
Spread: Florida -6.5
When Florida Has the Ball
In an odd turn of events, quarterback Emory Jones will play his last game for Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl before hitting the transfer portal. His decision to stick around was crucial considering Anthony Richardson was ruled out due to injury. Jones was intercepted three times against Florida State in the regular-season finale and has been overall inconsistent this year. The two quarterbacks were a big reason why Florida was one of the nation's best rushing teams this season.
The Gators also have a pair of serviceable backs in Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis. Running the ball will likely be the recipe for success for Florida against UCF. Leading receiver Jacob Copeland has entered the transfer portal and will not play in St. Petersburg. Tight end Kemore Gamble is a tough cover for opposing defenses.
The biggest reason for UCF's late-season turnaround was the play of its defense. Over its final six victories this season, the Knights never allowed more than 17 points in any game. After a slow start to the season, UCF finished near the top of the AAC in both scoring and total defense. Linebacker Tatum Bethune is the anchor for the UCF defense. This season, he recorded a team-high 101 tackles and two interceptions.
As the season went on, Auburn transfer Big Kat Bryant made his presence felt in the middle of the UCF defensive line. He led the team with six sacks and ranked third in the AAC. In the secondary, Quadric Bullard and Davonte Brown each had solid seasons for the Knights. Over the last several years, UCF has been one of the better teams in the country when it comes to taking the ball away.
When UCF Has the Ball
Traditionally known for its high-powered offense, UCF took a significant step back once Gabriel went down. Mikey Keene has been serviceable for the Knights at quarterback. Injuries to running back Isaiah Bowser and wide receiver Jaylon Robinson have not helped matters either. In their absence, however, others have emerged. Johnny Richardson came on strong out of the backfield, rushing for 693 yards and three touchdowns on almost seven yards per carry.
Ryan O'Keefe was the quintessential possession receiver for UCF, tallying 77 catches for a team-high 727 yards. In the red zone, Brandon Johnson is the player to watch. The 6-foot-2 Tennessee transfer caught just 38 passes this season, but 11 went for touchdowns. That was good for second in the AAC and 11th nationally. Overall, UCF ranked just seventh in its conference in total offense, but fourth in scoring.
After a strong start, Florida struggled down the stretch defensively. The Gators will also be shorthanded for the Gasparilla Bowl as leading sack man Zachary Carter has opted out. To generate pressure, Florida will rely heavily on Brenton Cox Jr. Cox finished with 7.5 sacks this season and had a monster game against Florida State to close the regular season.
Leading tackler Mohamoud Diabate has elected to transfer and won't be with Florida for the Gasparilla Bowl. If there is good news, it appears that standout cornerback Kaiir Elam and safety Rashad Torrence will be ready to go against UCF. Florida could use those reinforcements, as the Gators ranked seventh in the SEC in total defense and just 11th in scoring defense.
Final Analysis
At full strength and with complete focus, Florida is a much more talented football team. With transfers and opt-outs, however, and the transition the program is going through, motivation and focus will be real questions for Florida. The Gators rose to the occasion and became bowl eligible against FSU under interim head coach Greg Knox. Last season, however, that was not the case in the 55-20 loss to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl. For UCF, this game means much more. The Knights could make a real statement by beating the Gators for the first time and potentially finish ranked.
Prediction: UCF 21, Florida 20
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Posted on 12/21/21 at 8:52 am to paperwasp
quote:
Prediction: UCF 21, Florida 20
Posted on 12/21/21 at 8:54 am to paperwasp
Florida wins by double digits
Posted on 12/21/21 at 8:54 am to paperwasp
My prediction is Geaux Gatas!
Posted on 12/21/21 at 9:03 am to Wolfhound45
quote:
My prediction is Geaux Gatas!
The Wolf has Spoken.
Someone tell Pio to stay out of this thread unless he's pulling for UCF.
Posted on 12/21/21 at 9:04 am to paperwasp
We don’t want to be here.
Posted on 12/21/21 at 9:05 am to SadUCFKnight
quote:And we do not want you here either so…
We don’t want to be here.
Posted on 12/21/21 at 9:07 am to SadUCFKnight
quote:
We don’t want to be here.
Please, elaborate.
Posted on 12/21/21 at 9:09 am to paperwasp
Gus tomorrow...
Posted on 12/21/21 at 9:10 am to SadUCFKnight
quote:
We don’t want to be here.
Mike Leach is the only one who would want to play in the Gasparilla Bowl
UcF will get a UF effort on par with their bowl game last year. Yet, somehow UF still is likely to win.
Posted on 12/21/21 at 9:17 am to Che Boludo
quote:
UcF will get a UF effort on par with their bowl game last year.
Yet another reason to do away with the early signing period, IMO.
On the heels of players already opting-out for the NFL, the added complications of the transfer portal and premature coaching changes have further reduced any incentives to "show up" for bowl games.
Posted on 12/21/21 at 9:20 am to paperwasp
WTF is the Godzilla Bowl...is it in Tokyo? This game will be the equivalent of watching 2 Junior High chicks fight over the last plug in the tampon box!
Watched the Crocks play against the Pugs in the worlds largest "cock-n-tail"??? game the other day on the Sanky propaganda channel, er uh, the SEC Network...this team sucks a$$! That Dan Melon coach FL had made the worst game plan I've ever seen!
We have a team up north that reminds me of the Crocks...they're called Northern Illinois.
Watched the Crocks play against the Pugs in the worlds largest "cock-n-tail"??? game the other day on the Sanky propaganda channel, er uh, the SEC Network...this team sucks a$$! That Dan Melon coach FL had made the worst game plan I've ever seen!
We have a team up north that reminds me of the Crocks...they're called Northern Illinois.
Posted on 12/21/21 at 9:44 am to Blue and True
Posted on 12/21/21 at 9:49 am to paperwasp
Our players are out partying and getting lap dances. That should answer your question.
Posted on 12/21/21 at 9:59 am to SadUCFKnight
quote:
That should answer your question
Okay, thanks.
Posted on 12/21/21 at 10:21 am to Blue and True
trying way too hard
Posted on 12/21/21 at 10:24 am to Che Boludo
I think UF doesn't show up and loses. The stadium will be full of UCF fans as well. The new UF coaches are not involved in this game at all and none of the Mullen coaches are being retained and players are leaving left and right. This game should not even be played.
Posted on 12/21/21 at 10:28 am to Blue and True
quote:
WTF is the Godzilla Bowl.
quote:
Watched the Crocks play against the Pugs
quote:
That Dan Melon coach
WillieT alter confirmed.
Posted on 12/21/21 at 11:09 am to TheRaid
Emory throws the ball to the other team more than our team. AR just had surgery so Emory will have the whole game to throw to UCF.
Should be fun.
Should be fun.
This post was edited on 12/21/21 at 11:12 am
Posted on 12/23/21 at 9:24 am to paperwasp
quote:
Game day has arrived for the Florida Gators and Central Florida Knights, who get set to face each other for just the third time ever in the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl held in Tampa, Florida. Raymond James Stadium is sure to be covered in a blend of both orange and blue as well as black and gold tonight as the two schools fight for in-state bragging rights.
Ahead of the game, according to the Tipico Sportsbook, the Gators’ edge dropped a point back to 6.5 over the Knights with the over-under falling back to 55.5 points. Florida’s money rose to minus-240 while Central Florida’s fell to plus-190 as of 9 a.m. EST on Thursday.
The Gators need to take the Knights seriously. Not just now, but moving forward. There was a certain energy present against FSU that wasn’t there for any other Florida game this season. UCF will have that energy tonight, and it needs to be matched for this game to stay close.
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