re: Ark -3 v Ms St lock of the year?

quote:

---

We still have one of the best defenses in the league. That was our worst performance of the season.

---

Not for long.

quote:

---

This line looks just like the Oklahoma-Texas A&M game

---

The line may look more like the Ark - A&M game with reverse line movement indicating A&M was the pick. With high percentage on Ark, the line still moved so that Ark was giving fewer points. Ark covered the lower closing spread but not the higher opening spread.

Also, a big difference: in Ok-A&M, A&M had recently changed qbs and completely revived a struggling O. In contrast, Ark seems to be the team that has made greater strides on O lately, with a revived running attack behind Knile Davis.

My best guess is that we'll win by around 10 to 15. Then again, like you, when I see a lock, I get nervous.

quote:

---

My best guess is that we'll win by around 10 to 15. Then again, like you, when I see a lock, I get nervous.

---

That was my thinking too. Ark by 10-14 but what does Vegas see with only 3pts?

Houston & kentucky passed the ball on us decently until we started pressuring the QB. The only thing I can think of is our Offense must keep Time of possession in our favor by running the ball and keeping you off the field on offense. That's the only way we'll win it unless we force you into turnovers.

quote:

---

The line may look more like the Ark - A&M game with reverse line movement indicating A&M was the pick. With high percentage on Ark, the line still moved so that Ark was giving fewer points. Ark covered the lower closing spread but not the higher opening spread.

---

That line worried the crap out of me because it seemed like a blow out, yet there was reverse line movement. Notice the game was closer than anyone really thought it would be.

I thought I read South Carolina game had reverse line movement also? Not sure why that keeps happening to Arkansas lines unless they still don't like our road game performances.

I think/hope we win, but I think it will be like the TAMU game... closer than it seems like it would be.

quote:

---

That line worried the crap out of me because it seemed like a blow out, yet there was reverse line movement. Notice the game was closer than anyone really thought it would be.

---

My sportsbook is begging people to take Ark (-3) with -105 odds while MSU is at -115.

This is MSU's biggest game this season imo as they're looking to get their only win against a currently ranked team. If they win here, they have a shot at a 10 win season. Arkansas may be looking ahead to LSU. It's a tough game to call, but I'd go with the books and take MSU.

There will also be TONS of recruits at this game for MSU since it is our last home game and many of them's season is over so they will be able to travel.

HUGE game for MSU.

quote:

---

It was closer than Arkansas fans thought it would be. Y'all were telling me it was a lock and I was trying to tell you guys that a&m was a very talented team. Now they're playing pretty good football.

---

They weren't really that good in that game... Arkansas played pretty badly, TAMU just played worse. I think it's possible Arkansas was looking ahead to Auburn.


Same thing could be happening here... could be looking ahead to LSU or Vegas might feel like they are. I have a hard time believing Petrino or the players would overlook a good, ranked MSU team.

Some interesting & conflicting ATS stats:

Arkansas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Mississippi State

versus

ARKANSAS is 6-0 ATS in November games over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS is 8-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS is 6-0 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 2 seasons.

The fact that State has always played us close probably has a lot to do with the lower than expected line. The homer in me is going with the Hogs, thinking that folks are still placing too much weight on past years' performances when Petrino was dealing with baggage left by the previous coach and are underestimating the progress Petrino has made this year. We're 7-3 ATS so far this year (State is 5-5), so the homer in me is hoping that Vegas has State pretty much pegged but is still trying to figure out what to expect from the Hogs.

State can run the ball. Our 3 loses this year are at LSU, Aub, and at Bama. I like Ark, because I hate betting on MSU.

But, the winner gets the cotton bowl, and we racked up rushing yards last year in Ark. Our best bet is to control the ball.

I don't know why Ark fans are so confident.

quote:

---

I don't know why Ark fans are so confident.

---

MSU passing defense - 79th in the country

Arkansas passing offense - 3rd