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re: Alabama’s 2016 starting Defense in the NFL Draft

Posted on 4/30/18 at 8:41 pm to
Posted by Paul B Ammer
The Mecca of Tuscaloosa
Member since Jul 2017
2423 posts
Posted on 4/30/18 at 8:41 pm to
Not only do have no grasp of statistics whatsoever, but your logic is atrocious and you lack common sense.


Stats
I Z-tested the odds of a team with penalty rate. Based on all the games since 2000 the odds of any team running 99 plays without a penalty on offense. This gave me a p-value of .00008995.

In short you could expect a team to go 99 plays on offense without a penalty, once every 111,168 games. That is the equivalent of every game played in college football since 1897.


Logic

Suppose you 19-1 Stat is true. It's not but I am willing to humor you. 99 plays would be the upward bound of the number of plays since no team ran more in 2016. I would expect teams who ran less plays to have even less chance of having a penalty. So for all the teams with a penalty rate the same as Clemson or less I would expect the same results.

Yet Clemson is the only non service academy team to not be penalized on offense in 2016. What makes your position so absurd is that Clemson could not make it through a whole game against defensive titans Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Pitt without a single holding penalty being called. But they could go 99 snaps against the best defense in college football in years without a holding penalty?

Common Sense

If Alabama were to run 99 plays against Auburn without an offensive penalty the first words out your mouth would be "refs", then "SEC offices in Birmingham", then "goats".
Posted by BammerDelendaEst
Member since Jan 2014
2212 posts
Posted on 5/1/18 at 7:43 am to
You are right. I used the 2017-2018 numbers by mistake.

And your analysis is correct. The odds would be about 55-1 instead of 19-1.

That is still not a "statistical impossibility.' as claimed by you brethren. Using those numbers you would expect Clemson to go without an offensive penalty about once every 5 or 6 seasons.

Thanks for putting some thought into your response.
Posted by RT1941
Member since May 2007
31783 posts
Posted on 5/1/18 at 7:56 am to
quote:

You are right. I used the 2017-2018 numbers by mistake.

And your analysis is correct. The odds would be about 55-1 instead of 19-1.

That is still not a "statistical impossibility.' as claimed by you brethren. Using those numbers you would expect Clemson to go without an offensive penalty about once every 5 or 6 seasons.

Thanks for putting some thought into your response.

You deserve a spanking for the shite you stirred ITT yesterday, and the name calling....
Posted by BammerDelendaEst
Member since Jan 2014
2212 posts
Posted on 5/1/18 at 8:01 am to
If the service academies were able to go through a game without getting a penalty, why is it impossible for another team to do it?

What is the source of your data for your Z-test? Link? What was the Z-value you obtained?

I'll hang up and listen.
Posted by BammerDelendaEst
Member since Jan 2014
2212 posts
Posted on 5/1/18 at 8:06 am to
quote:

You deserve a spanking for the shite you stirred ITT yesterday, and the name calling


Seriously?
Posted by RabMichael
Greenville, SC
Member since Sep 2016
309 posts
Posted on 5/1/18 at 8:20 am to
quote:

What does Clemson’s starting Offense look like?


Our offense will be very good this year, led by Lord Trevor, Tee Higgins, and Travis Etienne. We'll win the national championship this year.
Posted by coachcrisp
pensacola, fl
Member since Jun 2012
30941 posts
Posted on 5/1/18 at 8:25 am to
quote:

Lord Trevor
Seriously?...
Posted by BammerDelendaEst
Member since Jan 2014
2212 posts
Posted on 5/1/18 at 8:43 am to
He's the son of the 13th Earl of Hilton Head.
Posted by RabMichael
Greenville, SC
Member since Sep 2016
309 posts
Posted on 5/1/18 at 8:44 am to
quote:

Seriously?...


Very seriously. You could also go with Adonis, the male Heather Locklear, or Sir Lawrence.
Posted by coachcrisp
pensacola, fl
Member since Jun 2012
30941 posts
Posted on 5/1/18 at 8:44 am to
I'm betting he's got no idea who he's the son of.
Posted by RabMichael
Greenville, SC
Member since Sep 2016
309 posts
Posted on 5/1/18 at 8:56 am to
quote:

I'm betting he's got no idea who he's the son of.


Ohhhh, snap!
Posted by Tuscaloosa
13x Award Winning SECRant user
Member since Dec 2011
50575 posts
Posted on 5/1/18 at 3:45 pm to
quote:

Using those numbers you would expect Clemson to go without an offensive penalty about once every 5 or 6 seasons.


How many times in the last... let’s say, ever... has Clemson run 99 plays and been called for no penalties?

Thanks.
Posted by BammerDelendaEst
Member since Jan 2014
2212 posts
Posted on 5/1/18 at 3:56 pm to
As far as I know, once.

How many times have they run 99 plays?



Posted by BHTiger
Charleston
Member since Dec 2017
8687 posts
Posted on 5/1/18 at 3:58 pm to
Probably never.....but the refs felt horrible for the 2 missed targeting calls they missed on D Watson in the first qtr...REALLY BAD.

I will grant you the pick play by Leggett could/should have been called. The last one was not close, the DB tackled the WR.
Posted by Farmer1906
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Apr 2009
51791 posts
Posted on 5/1/18 at 7:47 pm to
Black eye for Saban he couldn’t go undefeated with the most talented defense ever assembled.
Posted by BammerDelendaEst
Member since Jan 2014
2212 posts
Posted on 5/1/18 at 7:59 pm to
I have done some soul-searching and now concluded that y’all are correct!
It is absolutely impossible that any CFB team could EVER not get called for a single offensive penalty in a WHOLE football game!
Obviously, Bama was CHEATED out of their rightful 18th NC!
Order the rings! Print the shirts!
I believe the only explanation is that Trump and the Russians colluded with the NCAA and a shadowy cabal of billionaire Clemson alumni to cheat America’s team!
I have notified Special Counsel Mueller of this collusion and recommended his team call all the Bama Rant posters as expert witnesses on CFB, advanced statistics, Stormy Daniels porn movies, and Russian hookers.
This post was edited on 5/1/18 at 8:01 pm
Posted by 1BamaRTR
In Your Head Blvd
Member since Apr 2015
24688 posts
Posted on 5/1/18 at 8:01 pm to
Posted by Tuscaloosa
13x Award Winning SECRant user
Member since Dec 2011
50575 posts
Posted on 5/1/18 at 11:54 pm to
Is that a melt?

quote:

It is absolutely impossible that any CFB team could EVER not get called for a single offensive penalty in a WHOLE football game!


It had actually never happened before - with the number of plays run.

I think it’s a melt.
This post was edited on 5/1/18 at 11:55 pm
Posted by Eli Goldfinger
Member since Sep 2016
32785 posts
Posted on 5/2/18 at 12:27 am to
Yep...If Bama converts just 2 first downs in the 3rd quarter, they probably win.
Posted by BammerDelendaEst
Member since Jan 2014
2212 posts
Posted on 5/2/18 at 10:36 am to
quote:

It had actually never happened before


No one had ever actually flown an airplane before - until 1903.

No one had ever actually split an atom before - until 1939.

Do you see the fallacy in your reasoning?
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