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re: Alabama Recruiting
Posted on 6/19/24 at 9:44 am to DawginSC
Posted on 6/19/24 at 9:44 am to DawginSC
At the end of the day this is all meaningless off-season conjecture.
Is deBoer really as good of a coach as promised?? If so, he will do just fine ranked 6-10. And will win enough to move into the 1-5 tier. Championships do a good job recruiting.
If he's not, then he'll probably fall into the 5-15 range that represents the upper half of the SEC. He'll go 8-4 some years and hit big on others with 10-11 wins. But we won't know (similar to Drink at Missouri) until we see actual results with something other than Covid senior-laden teams. That's driving the uncertainty.
I really don't see Bama falling further than that though, let's be real here.
Is deBoer really as good of a coach as promised?? If so, he will do just fine ranked 6-10. And will win enough to move into the 1-5 tier. Championships do a good job recruiting.
If he's not, then he'll probably fall into the 5-15 range that represents the upper half of the SEC. He'll go 8-4 some years and hit big on others with 10-11 wins. But we won't know (similar to Drink at Missouri) until we see actual results with something other than Covid senior-laden teams. That's driving the uncertainty.
I really don't see Bama falling further than that though, let's be real here.
1
Posted on 6/19/24 at 9:44 am to skrayper
quote:
absolutely love how this board's "gotcha" for Alabama recruiting is ONLY being in the top 5.
It’s the best they have. They were all excited that DeBoer would recruit like Harsin. Now it’s clear that isn’t the case so they are relegated to this, though actually, Alabama is presently #3 on 247… LINK and #4 at On3… LINK
Posted on 6/19/24 at 10:01 am to jchamil
quote:
You keep completely discounting that Deboer might actually do well on the field which will help his recruiting. It's his first year, Saban's first class at Bama was ranked 10th. Deboer is going to do a shitload better recruiting at Bama tan he did at Washington
Yes, Deboer will do better in recruiting at Bama.
Saban's first full class was 2008 (the 2007 class was one where he had less than a month of recruiting time between being hired and signing day).
Alabama had the #1 class in 2008. That compares to the 2025 class for Deboer.
As for doing better on the field having a huge recruiting impact... it has an impact but not as big as you think. Great recruiters recruit well even without success.
Saban in 2008 ended up with the #1 class despite Bama having 6 losses in 2007. Smart in 2017 had the #3 class despite UGA having 5 losses in 2016. Spurrier never recruited at an elite level at UF despite UF being exceptional under Spurrier. They recruited very well, but not like Saban at Bama.
Deboer is going to be a very good recruiter. Brian Kelly is a very good recruiter. So is Dabo Swinney. So was Mark Richt.
But based on what we know so far given where Bama's class stands in terms of average recruit rating and players still considering Bama from the 5-stars, he's probably not going to be elite like Saban was or Smart is.
Posted on 6/19/24 at 10:10 am to DawginSC
quote:
Alabama had the #1 class in 2008. That compares to the 2025 class for Deboer.
Not exactly with the recruiting calendar being completely overhauled since then. DeBoer was hired in the middle of the 2025 cycle. I was going to judge him on the 2026 class. But he’s made up substantial ground for 2025 in a short period of time.
Posted on 6/19/24 at 10:13 am to Bigdawgb
quote:
At the end of the day this is all meaningless off-season conjecture.
Is deBoer really as good of a coach as promised?? If so, he will do just fine ranked 6-10. And will win enough to move into the 1-5 tier. Championships do a good job recruiting.
If he's not, then he'll probably fall into the 5-15 range that represents the upper half of the SEC. He'll go 8-4 some years and hit big on others with 10-11 wins. But we won't know (similar to Drink at Missouri) until we see actual results with something other than Covid senior-laden teams. That's driving the uncertainty.
I really don't see Bama falling further than that though, let's be real here.
This is pretty much what I've been saying.
Deboer is a very good coach in terms of developing talent and X's and O's. He's proven that already in his coaching career.
But Bama fans are trying to claim he's on par with Nick Saban in recruiting. And that's simply not supported by any evidence at this stage of the game. His recruiting seems more on par with Dabo Swinney right now.
Swinney won two national titles with that level of recruiting thanks to hitting on some elite QB recruits (Watson and Lawrence) to go with overall talent in the 5-10 range surrounding that elite QB. LSU had a similar formula winning a title with Joe Burrow at QB. Auburn followed the same to win a title with Cam Newton at QB.
But to bulldoze your way to a title with a QB like Stetson Bennett, Greg McElroy or Jay Coker, you need the elite level of talent normally. That 5-10 range generally isn't enough without an exceptional QB to pick up the slack.
Posted on 6/19/24 at 10:18 am to CapstoneGrad06
The evolution of this board's opinions on DeBoer have gone from:
"Lol no ties to the south, won't be able to recruit, Bama done"
to
"Well, here's why his top 3 class isn't that great. Bama recruits itself y'know."
Interested to see what the next narrative is.
"Lol no ties to the south, won't be able to recruit, Bama done"
to
"Well, here's why his top 3 class isn't that great. Bama recruits itself y'know."
Interested to see what the next narrative is.
Posted on 6/19/24 at 10:18 am to DawginSC
quote:
But Bama fans are trying to claim he's on par with Nick Saban in recruiting.
Have seen literally no Alabama fans claim this.
Posted on 6/19/24 at 10:19 am to CapstoneGrad06
quote:
Not exactly with the recruiting calendar being completely overhauled since then. DeBoer was hired in the middle of the 2025 cycle. I was going to judge him on the 2026 class. But he’s made up substantial ground for 2025 in a short period of time.
I think you might have the numbers confused here.
Deboer was hired between ESD and NSD in the 2024 recruiting class. The majority of Bama's class in 2024 wasn't just committed before Deboer came to Bama, they were SIGNED. He had a very small impact on that class. The 2025 class (this year) is entirely his.
For Smart (who was hired before early signing day), he was running UGA's recruiting for the last two months of the 2016 class. He had more impact on that class than Deboer did on the 2024 class as he had to fight to retain committed players, but he didn't have a full calendar year to recruit to UGA. Smart's 2017 class (and Saban's 2008 class) are directly comparable to the 2025 class for Deboer. All three had/will have a full calendar year to recruit that class.
Deboer's 2025 class is not a mid-cycle class. It's fully his. The 2024 class was his transition class, but realistically it was mostly signed by Saban.
Posted on 6/19/24 at 10:20 am to DawginSC
I have not confused anything. The entire recruiting cycle was been accelerated compared to 2008.
Posted on 6/19/24 at 10:21 am to DawginSC
I'm guessing you didn't respond to Bama basically having 2 five star players already on On3.
Also, some of the 5 stars in the rankings will end up 4 stars. And vice versa.
You can always claim Bama bump if you want.
Also, some of the 5 stars in the rankings will end up 4 stars. And vice versa.
You can always claim Bama bump if you want.
Posted on 6/19/24 at 10:28 am to Marktastic86
quote:
quote:
But Bama fans are trying to claim he's on par with Nick Saban in recruiting.
Have seen literally no Alabama fans claim this.
From the other Bama recruiting thread titled "Kalen Deboer is an elite recruiter":
quote:
DeBoer is recruiting pretty damn close to Saban and he's been on the job less than 6 months.
quote:
DeBoer is recruiting better than Saban at this point in their respective Alabama tenures. That is an absolute fact.
Posted on 6/19/24 at 10:29 am to CapstoneGrad06
quote:
I have not confused anything. The entire recruiting cycle was been accelerated compared to 2008.
He was literally hired before the 2024 cycle ended. The 2025 cycle hadn't officially started yet.
I'm not sure what to tell you here.
Posted on 6/19/24 at 10:31 am to BLG
quote:
I don't remember the last time LSU finished higher in recruiting than Alabama did, and probably won't this year either.
When was the last time LSU was favored over Bama? Because in DeBusts first year, LSU is favored. And LSU has a better recruiting class according to On3 and higher average across the board.
Posted on 6/19/24 at 10:33 am to jchamil
quote:
Deboer went 11-2 the year before making the title game
Oh wow! In the Pac 12 at Washington???
Posted on 6/19/24 at 10:38 am to DawginSC
quote:
He was literally hired before the 2024 cycle ended. The 2025 cycle hadn't officially started yet.
I'm not sure what to tell you here.
The entire ground work for a class is started substantially earlier than it was in 2008. I don’t know what to tell you either.
DeBoer was behind the curve. I thought it would be unjust to judge him on 2025. He’s surprised. That’s it.
Posted on 6/19/24 at 10:43 am to Crimsonians
quote:
I'm guessing you didn't respond to Bama basically having 2 five star players already on On3.
They have no 5-star players according to On3. Not sure what "basically" means here.
I personally don't use On3. I use the 247 composite. I'm not particularly familiar with how On3 rates players. On that ranking they have 1 5-star player. The composite cutoff line for 5-stars is generally around the 25-30th ranked player (right now the top 28 are 5-stars).
Bama's current commits on the composite are ranked 26th (their 5-star), 38th, 52nd and 76th.
As for the rankings changing, that could absolutely happen. It rarely impacted Bama much before because they had a number of players on both sides of the 5-star dividing line so they'd generally be favored and hurt about the same amount.
Right now they have one guy just barely above the 5-star line, one guy close below the 5-star line and a couple of guys a ways back. It will be more a matter of chance of how it impacts them rather than having a bunch above and just below the line so statistically they mostly came out even.
Posted on 6/19/24 at 10:47 am to CapstoneGrad06
quote:
The entire ground work for a class is started substantially earlier than it was in 2008. I don’t know what to tell you either.
DeBoer was behind the curve. I thought it would be unjust to judge him on 2025. He’s surprised. That’s it.
I'm sorry, if you have more than a calendar year between when you're hired and national signing day, you have plenty of time to adjust whatever recruiting is in place for that year.
Yes, coaches start recruiting players as young as the 8th grade sometimes. But it's not a transitional class if you have a full year to work on it. It's entirely your class and fair to judge on it. You have plenty of time to recruit those players.
This is the first time I've EVER heard college football fans claim that not just the transitional recruiting year (which was 2024 for Deboer) but the following year (2025) "don't count". That's just dumb.
Posted on 6/19/24 at 10:48 am to DawginSC
Not necessarily talking about you, but seems like a cart before the horse argument over five stars. This could all be moot in the next couple weeks with some of Alabama’s major targets making decisions.
Posted on 6/19/24 at 10:53 am to DawginSC
quote:
This is the first time I've EVER heard college football fans claim that not just the transitional recruiting year (which was 2024 for Deboer) but the following year (2025) "don't count". That's just dumb.
You can’t even call it a transition signing class though. It was signed before he was even hired. And with a December signing period being the signing period, official visits primarily in June now, and a host of other changes it is absolutely different than it was in 2008. Which was the context of where this arguing started in the first place.
That being said, this is the new normal. But we weren’t comparing DeBoer’s first classes to the last few years in college football recruiting. We were comparing it to 2008.
And I have not once said 2025 does not count. I pretty clearly stated he has surprised me.
This post was edited on 6/19/24 at 10:55 am
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