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re: A&M opens as 2.5 point favorite over State
Posted on 10/29/12 at 11:22 am to TbirdSpur2010
Posted on 10/29/12 at 11:22 am to TbirdSpur2010
quote:
Will it happen? Who the frick knows
True, no one knows, but turnovers is our forte. We've had one in every game (Slay dropped an easy one in the Bama game).
0
Posted on 10/29/12 at 11:24 am to pivey14
quote:
You're going to enjoy DWS, that is if you are going. If you are one the east side, your ears will ring for the rest of the day. The West side is full of "old money"
Can't go this year unfortunately.
I do want to eventually make it out there though. I have actually always had a bit of a soft spot for Miss St due to shared coaching history, colors, and y'all being a farm school.
maybe in 2014 if we get a return trip when the SEC puts out its permanent schedules.
This post was edited on 10/29/12 at 11:25 am
Posted on 10/29/12 at 11:25 am to Dr RC
-7 now 
Posted on 10/29/12 at 11:25 am to Dr RC
FWIW the weather is going to be absolutely perfect this weekend. Sorry, you can't go. Your going to miss a good crowd and game.
Posted on 10/29/12 at 11:26 am to pivey14
quote:
You serious, Clark? I'm saying even as a team, but that doesn't change the fact that I think a unexpected turnover will happen against y'all. You're just trying to put an awful spin on what I said.
No. You don't have any reason to think you'll win other than an emotional disgust with how much better we are than y'all. You have no rational reason to think you'll win other than your turnover margin against really shitty teams. As if that could outweigh how much more dominant than A&M is in every facet(and that dominance sort of negates the possibility of losing the turnover margin). You could have played Alabama for 100 quarters and you wouldn't have forced a turnover. Why? Because your team is terrible and you're going to get stomped this weekend.
Posted on 10/29/12 at 11:26 am to Hugo Stiglitz
quote:
line has moved to A&M by 7
The more the line moves in favor of A & M the more I am inclined to believe MSSt will win the game.
Posted on 10/29/12 at 11:27 am to pivey14
quote:
FWIW the weather is going to be absolutely perfect this weekend. Sorry, you can't go. Your going to miss a good crowd and game.
shite happens when you aren't single anymore.
Posted on 10/29/12 at 11:32 am to pivey14
quote:
FWIW the weather is going to be absolutely perfect this weekend. Sorry, you can't go. Your going to miss a good crowd and game.
What are y'all expecting with a 11am kickoff and the Bulldog Bash the night before, or do people not usually go to that event?
Posted on 10/29/12 at 11:35 am to spacewrangler
The line is moving because people are betting on A&M. They are trying to balance the book.
Posted on 10/29/12 at 11:37 am to Dr RC
quote:
The more the line moves in favor of A & M the more I am inclined to believe MSSt will win the game
This is an interesting line of thinking. Were you all over MSU and the money line last week?
Posted on 10/29/12 at 11:41 am to KaiserSoze99
Nice avi/sig
Posted on 10/29/12 at 11:51 am to John Maplethorpe
No. Didn't bet. Am I wrong?
If the line starts at A&M -2.5. People are taking A&M more (a lot more) so they up the stakes and make it -7 to try and get more people to bet on the other side of the line and even it out.
If the line starts at A&M -2.5. People are taking A&M more (a lot more) so they up the stakes and make it -7 to try and get more people to bet on the other side of the line and even it out.
Posted on 10/29/12 at 11:58 am to OldSulRoss
quote:
What are y'all expecting with a 11am kickoff and the Bulldog Bash the night before, or do people not usually go to that event?
It'll be a sellout like the past 18 games. We've already had our first 11 AM game of the season so it isn't unfamiliar
Posted on 10/29/12 at 11:59 am to pivey14
I think State has a quality environment that will be loud and unusual with the cowbells. I also think your fans are very committed and passionate. That said, it's still an 11AM game and A&M's offense still makes crowd noise less of a factor because of the hurry up style. A&M intentionally scripts the first 15 or more plays and wants the ball to start games. That means we come out very fast and aggressive. It's part of why A&M has scored a TD in the last 5 games on their first drive.
If the best hope for State is TO margin then I feel great about our chances. Predicting TO's is fool's gold unless you have a ridiculous talent advantage. By definition it requires the other team to make mistakes. I will agree that if A&M goes -5 or so in TO margin they will likely lose but that's not exactly a headline. A&M has struggled with TO's really twice this year, against Ole Miss and against LSU. Outside of those 2 games we have not had more than one TO in a game. Against La Tech we had a ridiculous amount of penalties but that has been an aberration. Going in to the Ole Miss game TO margin was actually a huge plus for A&M. You just never really know.
I see State with 2 real advantages on A&M. State has superior CB's that could cause A&M some problems and State has a very good QB that runs the offense well and can make throws to open receivers. I think Manziel is better than Russell but Russell may be able to take advantage of A&M's biggest weakness in the secondary. Position by position though A&M wins virtually every battle:
A&M QB>MSU QB
A&M RB's>MSU RB's
A&M OL>MSU OL
A&M WR's>MSU WR's
A&M DL>MSU DL
A&M LB's>MSU LB's
A&M DB's<MSU DB's
If the best hope for State is TO margin then I feel great about our chances. Predicting TO's is fool's gold unless you have a ridiculous talent advantage. By definition it requires the other team to make mistakes. I will agree that if A&M goes -5 or so in TO margin they will likely lose but that's not exactly a headline. A&M has struggled with TO's really twice this year, against Ole Miss and against LSU. Outside of those 2 games we have not had more than one TO in a game. Against La Tech we had a ridiculous amount of penalties but that has been an aberration. Going in to the Ole Miss game TO margin was actually a huge plus for A&M. You just never really know.
I see State with 2 real advantages on A&M. State has superior CB's that could cause A&M some problems and State has a very good QB that runs the offense well and can make throws to open receivers. I think Manziel is better than Russell but Russell may be able to take advantage of A&M's biggest weakness in the secondary. Position by position though A&M wins virtually every battle:
A&M QB>MSU QB
A&M RB's>MSU RB's
A&M OL>MSU OL
A&M WR's>MSU WR's
A&M DL>MSU DL
A&M LB's>MSU LB's
A&M DB's<MSU DB's
Posted on 10/29/12 at 12:22 pm to spacewrangler
LINK
Total D & even scoring D can be misleading. They don't take into account total plays defended, total possessions defended, or average field position. Look at A&Ms efficiency rating of 5th in the SEC and 23rd in the country. We have an average SEC D. Better than many other SEC teams.
It's not just an SEC D if only 3 teams have it. That's just elite SEC Ds.
And we don't need an elite D with our offense. Just needs to be a little deeper than it is now to hold leads
quote:
Posted by spacewrangler quote: Well if they're so shitty then Bama should have no problem putting up 60 on us. Care to make a wager? I'll give you 10-1 odds Bama doesn't go over 59 LOL--- Bama doesn't need to put 60 on A & M nor any other team to win comfortably. It's not our MO. We will, however, beat A & M down. Something like 41-13d But way to try to change the subject of the fact that A & M's defense isn't "SEC" just becuase you're in the conference now. Look I'm not saying A & M is a bad team but expect to catch hell when you D get's torched by a CUSA team.
Total D & even scoring D can be misleading. They don't take into account total plays defended, total possessions defended, or average field position. Look at A&Ms efficiency rating of 5th in the SEC and 23rd in the country. We have an average SEC D. Better than many other SEC teams.
It's not just an SEC D if only 3 teams have it. That's just elite SEC Ds.
And we don't need an elite D with our offense. Just needs to be a little deeper than it is now to hold leads
Posted on 10/29/12 at 12:43 pm to KaiserSoze99
quote:
The line is moving because people are betting on A&M. They are trying to balance the book.
I completely understand how the lines work, even money yada yada yada. With that much action going on A & M to move the line 4 pts it makes think trap, like all the public betting state last week from +26 to +24.
Plus, I think State wins straight up anyway.
Posted on 10/29/12 at 1:03 pm to aggressor
Nice avi, aggressor. Salt Lick?
Posted on 10/29/12 at 1:07 pm to aggressor
quote:
A&M QB>MSU QB
A&M RB's>MSU RB's
A&M OL>MSU OL
A&M WR's>MSU WR's
A&M DL>MSU DL
A&M LB's>MSU LB's
A&M DB's<MSU DB's
Our RB's are better than yours and you know it. Our pass blocking is better than yours, but you have us beat by a lot with run blocking. I would say the WR's are even. LB's are probably even as well; Matthew Wells was born to QB Spy quarterbacks like JFF. Everything else is correct.
Posted on 10/29/12 at 1:08 pm to gnirwin11
Why yes it is. Love Salt Lick.
Just wanted a pic to show our SEC friends what a real BBQ pit looks like and BBQ is more than just pig meat.
Just wanted a pic to show our SEC friends what a real BBQ pit looks like and BBQ is more than just pig meat.
Posted on 10/29/12 at 1:14 pm to pivey14
quote:
Our pass blocking is better than yours
Name your first rounders starting at both tackle spots and I might not laugh. (Both Juniors) Also our center (Sr.) will play on Sundays as well.
Do you know anything about our line? You could make the argument that it is Top 5 in the Country. Haven't heard anything saying State's Line is that good.
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