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re: 11/14/22 Updated ESPN CFB Playoff Predictor

Posted on 11/14/22 at 12:32 pm to
Posted by Spaceman Spiff
Savannah
Member since Sep 2012
19067 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 12:32 pm to
quote:

Phat Phil


Still trying to be relevant.
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
33124 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 12:34 pm to
quote:

With 2 terrible teams left


Yeah, the last two teams will tank their SOS a bit, but their SOS is light-years ahead of both Ohio State and Michigan, and outside of playing each other neither has a decent team remaining (though obviously better than Vandy).

It's hard to see them suddenly leapfrogging Tennessee in SOS from just those two games when you consider Tennessee had Georgia, Alabama and LSU on their regular season schedule.
Posted by llfshoals
Member since Nov 2010
19230 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

With identical records and no championship Tennessee should definitely be in over Michigan.
Think that one through.

Team 1 - 1 loss, only loss is blowout loss to #1 or #2 seed on the road.

Team 2 - 1 loss, only loss is close competitive game on the road to #1 or #2 seed on the road.

Think they’re taking Team 1 or 2 there?
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
38116 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 12:39 pm to
Would be a toss up
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
33124 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 12:54 pm to
quote:

Think that one through.

Team 1 - 1 loss, only loss is blowout loss to #1 or #2 seed on the road.

Team 2 - 1 loss, only loss is close competitive game on the road to #1 or #2 seed on the road.

Think they’re taking Team 1 or 2 there?


You're applying the "only losses matter" logic.

Tennessee has wins over (based on playoff rankings):
#7 LSU
#9 Alabama
#24 Kentucky

Michigan has wins over:
#14 Penn State
Pending games with:
#21 Illinois (likely to fall out if they lose to Michigan)
#2 Ohio State (irrelevant for this simply because if they win, their record is not identical to Tennessee)

Are you saying we should reward Michigan's absurdly weak schedule just for being close to Ohio State at the end of the game?
Posted by LunaFreak
Member since Sep 2022
1593 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 12:57 pm to
quote:

It's true


Yup.

I been trying to tell all these goobers, but it's like explaining something to my sister's two year old.
Posted by LunaFreak
Member since Sep 2022
1593 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 12:58 pm to
quote:

And better odds than LSU. Makes no sense.


Mafs iz hard.
Posted by LunaFreak
Member since Sep 2022
1593 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 1:01 pm to
quote:

Think they’re taking Team 1 or 2 there?


They're taking the team with the better resume.

Which is hands down UT.
Posted by llfshoals
Member since Nov 2010
19230 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 1:07 pm to
quote:

Are you saying we should reward Michigan's absurdly weak schedule just for being close to Ohio State at the end of the game?
It’s like you’ve never watched the playoff committee make decisions.

Better brand name? Michigan, not close
Only loss to a team in the playoffs? If it’s a close loss Michigan looks like a much better matchup with Georgia, who they’d play in the first round.

You guys seem to think a semi-decent schedule trumps perception and profit in this case.

It doesn’t.
Posted by llfshoals
Member since Nov 2010
19230 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 1:11 pm to
quote:

Would be a toss up
Close, but who has the better brand name?

Better loss?

Better perception to the committee?

We’ll get to see what the right call would have been after expansion. Before? They’re fairly predictable.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
38116 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 1:12 pm to
quote:

#24 Kentucky


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