re: The Relaxation Chamber: Limited Severe Risk MS/AL/GA/TN

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Just got dark and started pouring

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Couldn't resist

Stay safe, Cat

It's gotten ridiculously hot here. Humidity is extremely high too. I just walked outside for 3 minutes and was pouring sweat.

It's gonna get bad..I can feel it coming in the air without looking at the forecasts. I knew this morning when i woke up and looked at the sky that we were gonna catch hell this evening and tonight.

Whoa, PDS Tornado Watch released now for central Arkansas.



TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

WT 0100 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 80%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 60%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU0.

For those who don't know what a PDS watch is:

PDS watches are quite uncommon; less than 3% of watches issued by the SPC from 1996 to 2005 were PDS watches, or an average of 24 each year.[2] When a PDS watch is issued, there are often more PDS watches issued for the same weather system, even on the same day during major outbreaks, so the number of days per year that a PDS watch is issued is significantly lower.

PDS tornado watches are issued when there is a higher than normal risk of multiple strong to violent tornadoes – especially those that are predicted to be long-track in nature, with path lengths of more than 20 miles – in the watch area (usually amounting to damage consistent with EF4 or EF5 tornadoes), in addition to including significant wind and hail damage. While there are no set criteria for a PDS watch to be issued, they are usually issued when the potential exists for a major tornado outbreak. These types of tornado watches represent about 90% of PDS watches issued by the Storm Prediction Center.[2]

Mississippi look out


PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS A PORTION OF NCNTRL MS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN MS. THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
AND DIABATIC WARMING CONTRIBUTING TO 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. A STORM
HAS INITIATED ALONG BOUNDARY NEAR THE NWRN MS AND ARKANSAS BORDER.
ENEWD STORM MOTION SUGGESTS IT SHOULD CROSS INTO THE COOL SECTOR.
HOWEVER...IF THE STORM BEGINS TO TURN MORE RIGHT IT MAY REMAIN
SURFACE BASED AS IT MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE LARGE LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE LIKELY.

I had no idea about this thread, I can try to post warnings/radar images tomorrow as this event affects ms/al etc. to help out a little.

that storm's rotation isn't that tight, but its rotation nonetheless and moving into a highly unstable area.. nice sized hail core within it though.

Looks like it's starting to get fired up.

I'm currently driving from Corinth to tupelo then to oxford so y'all let me know if I need to get right with The Lord in a hurry