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re: The IHME Model is Wrong
Posted on 4/25/20 at 7:24 pm to BHMKyle
Posted on 4/25/20 at 7:24 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Unfortunately that means a much slower time to get back to normal.
bullshite
thank God for Governor Kemp, leading the way
if WalMart can be open safely, then so can every other retailer in he country
we have dramatically overreacted to this; hospitals and medical resources are not overrun and in no danger of being overrun
it is time to let anyone that wants to work go ahead and do so
1
Posted on 4/25/20 at 7:28 pm to BHMKyle
quote:we may well hit 80,000 deaths by August, but destroying the country and livelihoods is just not the answer
I think 80,000 fatalities is a conservative estimate, and that's 23% higher than the IHME Model projects. Yes, 15,000 is "way off" if its missing it by at least 23%.... likely higher.
all the data that we are seeing suggests that we have a far higher rate of infection than is being reported anywhere; which also meas a lower mortality rate
I am not suggesting that we should not take this seriously; but more &more I am envious of the way the Swedes have handled things
Posted on 4/26/20 at 11:29 am to dcbl
quote:
we have dramatically overreacted to this; hospitals and medical resources are not overrun and in no danger of being overrun
I think people forget this was the point of quarantine. I also think people forget that what’s happening in one place isn’t necessarily happening in one place.
Alabama shut down for a month. Our “peak” was 20 deaths in a day. We have around 5,750 beds available. At our projected peak, all we needed were 318 beds. Similar type numbers for ICU beds.
Posted on 4/26/20 at 2:39 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
There have been 18,000+ Americans die of COVID-19 in just the past week
Doubtful
Posted on 4/26/20 at 6:38 pm to Weagle25
But it didn't happen in areas that were not shut down, nor did non medical "essential" workers die or get sick in droves.
A handful of hotspots set the reaction to this mess
A handful of hotspots set the reaction to this mess
Posted on 4/29/20 at 9:27 pm to SoFla Tideroller
quote:
Doubtful
What is the most for 1 week?
We might hit 60k in April alone.
Posted on 4/30/20 at 11:28 am to BHMKyle
quote:
The flu argument is preposterous. Folks who are constantly arguing about this using the flu as their example are trying to take annualized numbers and compared them to these coronavirus numbers that are only a few weeks old.
2017-2018 Influenza season killed about 60,000 over twelve months with a "burden" of 45,000,000 influenza infections. To compare the approximately 60,000 Covid19 deaths over the three months of February, March, and April is, as you wrote, preposterous.
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:08 pm to Mr. Misanthrope
The death rates of Covid-19 similar to the common flu but with a higher infection rate.
It’s a fact at this point as many people have died from Covid-19 in the US in 2 months compared to a to a seasonal rate of the flu.
Keep living in your cocoon. The rest of us will deal with what plays out.
It’s a fact at this point as many people have died from Covid-19 in the US in 2 months compared to a to a seasonal rate of the flu.
Keep living in your cocoon. The rest of us will deal with what plays out.
This post was edited on 4/30/20 at 1:16 pm
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:31 pm to NoMansLand
quote:
Explain to me what is preposterous? The death rates of Covid-19 similar to the common flu but with a higher infection rate.
It’s a fact at this point as many people have died from Covid-19 in the US in 2 months compared to a to a seasonal rate of the flu.
So, do we disagree? Responding to the OP's contention that constantly comparing seasonal flu for a twelve month period to Covid's three months is preposterous, I wrote:
quote:
2017-2018 Influenza season killed about 60,000 over twelve months with a "burden" of 45,000,000 influenza infections. To compare the approximately 60,000 Covid19 deaths over the three months of February, March, and April is, as you wrote, preposterous.
Like you wrote, Covid19 is apparently more contagious than seasonal flu. Whether it's more or less deadly than seasonal flu is an open question. If we get 45,000,000 cases in a year we can compare its relative mortality with flu's.
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:47 pm to Mr. Misanthrope
quote:
Whether it's more or less deadly than seasonal flu is an open question.
It’s definitely more deadly. 2 months (so far vs maybe a 6 month flu season). I edited the preposterous before you replied as I realized that was a quote & not your opinion.
My opinion is wave 1 ((Feb-Jul) will take 80k lives.
Wave 2 (Nov20–Feb21) MAY take 100k more. Agree if you believe we need to slowly open things up. Also believe that masks and social distancing are an integral part of our becoming normal.
I take this as the new normal. We NEED at this point to SLOWLY open things up. We also NEED to realize trade-offs.
This post was edited on 4/30/20 at 1:58 pm
Posted on 4/30/20 at 4:21 pm to NoMansLand
quote:
My opinion is wave 1 ((Feb-Jul) will take 80k lives. Wave 2 (Nov20–Feb21) MAY take 100k more. Agree if you believe we need to slowly open things up. Also believe that masks and social distancing are an integral part of our becoming normal.
I take this as the new normal. We NEED at this point to SLOWLY open things up. We also NEED to realize trade-offs.
I thought wave 1, as you call it, was going to be as high as 150k. You may have it about right.
My thinking at one time was that a subsequent wave would be way less deadly because far more people have been infected than we've been able to imagine, perhaps even so far back as December 2019.
That's where I remain a little hopeful, that when all the numbers shake out and the degree and effectiveness of immunity conferred by previous infection becomes known, this will end up being, for the future, a very bad flu.
It's problematic, but things absolutely must open up cautiously and intelligently. Not sure tattoo parlors should be high up on the list of essential services though.
Posted on 4/30/20 at 6:08 pm to Mr. Misanthrope
Your most recent post is very balanced. Everyone should want the economy back open while mitigating
health risks.
We will get there soon & the bickering can go back to which team (Bama) cheats the most or what team has the ugliest colors (Florida).
health risks.
We will get there soon & the bickering can go back to which team (Bama) cheats the most or what team has the ugliest colors (Florida).
Posted on 4/30/20 at 6:29 pm to NoMansLand
quote:No argument there.
We will get there soon & the bickering can go back to which team (Bama) cheats the most or what team has the ugliest colors (Florida).
Posted on 5/1/20 at 4:07 pm to Mr. Misanthrope
The models will be revised down repeatedly until they get it right and when all is said and done the last model is the one people will remember, not the idiotic original that caused more harm than the virus.
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