Started By
Message
0
Posted on 1/26/16 at 10:07 pm to boxerbulldawg
quote:
When some a-hole can accurately predict the weather 12 hours in advance , maybe I could believe they know what the frick they're talking about.
Weather models predict specifics for a few days or so. Climate models predict generalities for the next few decades. Each has uncertainties, but the uncertainties are very different.
Climatology is about discerning the larger patterns within which those uncertainties manifest. Even if you cannot predict exactly what value a chaotic variable will have at a given time, you can produce statistics about the ranges of values it may take.
Weather is chaotic and it’s hard to project weather out beyond a couple of weeks because the chaotic effects begin to dominate. Climate models are less concerned with these factors because they're looking at the broad envelope being predicted and not the day to day details. Unlike weather predictions, climate models seek to describe the ranges within which chaos will operate, which is a very different question. Year to year values have more chaotic effects than decade to decade, which in turn have more than century to century. This is why climate models usually cover long periods of time, especially in comparison to your 10 day weather forecast.
Posted on 1/26/16 at 10:24 pm to Bigbens42
A couple of weeks?
More like 5 days, and even then it's not great. Short term (two days), the high resolution models do very well. They just dont have the computing power to go out much farther.
You're dead on with the climate modeling.
More like 5 days, and even then it's not great. Short term (two days), the high resolution models do very well. They just dont have the computing power to go out much farther.
You're dead on with the climate modeling.
Posted on 1/26/16 at 11:15 pm to MIZ_COU
quote:
I bet you're fantastically qualified to make this determination
No need to be a dick.
I know an untestable premise when I see one.
Posted on 1/27/16 at 12:35 am to Duke
Theoretically possible to get an extremely grainy picture 10-14 days out. We can sort of predict that airmass X will be at location Y two weeks out. But you're right. Any forecast beyond 5 days is a crapshoot.
Posted on 1/27/16 at 8:52 am to Bigbens42
Yeah, you'll see the general pattern develope with the global models. They cut the atmosphere into blocks, but those blocks are still too large to pick up all the subtleties. It's why weather isn't real until the HRRR shows it to be.
Posted on 1/27/16 at 10:16 am to Pbhog
quote:
I'm educated on the issue. Are you?
Cool, then state facts accurately and not in a light that simply supports your premise. I have not even given my opinion on anything here other than you need to do more than regurgitate sound bites.
Posted on 1/27/16 at 10:38 am to GnashRebel
I'm stating scientific facts supported by 97% of scientist
Posted on 1/27/16 at 11:07 am to Aux Arc
No. You dont
Posted on 1/27/16 at 12:09 pm to Pbhog
I do believe in climate change along with the fact that the earth has natural cycles.
Posted on 1/27/16 at 12:21 pm to Pbhog
quote:
That's what happens when corporate America runs your politicians
It is not corporations.
If Made Man Climate Change is real then the American way of life is completely unacceptable. We would have to change how we consume products, how we consume energy, which would lead to real sacrifices in our quality of life.
Modern Americans refuse to sacrifice, especially if those hurt the worst by their lack of sacrifice are not Americans.
It is not the corporations, it is not the politicians. It is us. We don't want to change and for good reason.
Posted on 1/27/16 at 5:17 pm to cardboardboxer
This thread is ridiculous... I'm an engineer and have a very strong back ground in earth science- geology/geophysics. The fact of the matter is climate change is real. Man is NOT the primary cause.
The Great Lakes were glaciers... Deserts weren't always deserts. Arkansas was once underwater in a deep water environment. All of this change happened prior to the industrial revolution.
Does man contribute yes to climate chance? Yes. If I piss in the ocean the water level rises, but is the significant? Depends on your definition...
Man overstates his importance, impact and ability to resolve the problems.
You environmentalists and your "science" is about as soft as a marshmallow. And, the poster that went to Auburn, so I don't respect your physics capabilities. Go learn about geology and study water currents. I hate how the internet is a spring board for the ignorant.
What a joke. People don't think for themselves. 97% of scientists... Scientists agree climate change is real. Sure there is a degree of anthropogenic climate change. But know one talks about the significance correctly. If the titanic is sinking, do you think you and Dixie cup can keep it afloat. The EARTH IS DYNAMIC PEOPLE!
The Great Lakes were glaciers... Deserts weren't always deserts. Arkansas was once underwater in a deep water environment. All of this change happened prior to the industrial revolution.
Does man contribute yes to climate chance? Yes. If I piss in the ocean the water level rises, but is the significant? Depends on your definition...
Man overstates his importance, impact and ability to resolve the problems.
You environmentalists and your "science" is about as soft as a marshmallow. And, the poster that went to Auburn, so I don't respect your physics capabilities. Go learn about geology and study water currents. I hate how the internet is a spring board for the ignorant.
What a joke. People don't think for themselves. 97% of scientists... Scientists agree climate change is real. Sure there is a degree of anthropogenic climate change. But know one talks about the significance correctly. If the titanic is sinking, do you think you and Dixie cup can keep it afloat. The EARTH IS DYNAMIC PEOPLE!
Posted on 1/27/16 at 5:26 pm to chauncey1
Excuse my typos, I'm on a phone...
Posted on 1/27/16 at 6:09 pm to chauncey1
You don't work for a oil company do you? Because you were taught the wrong stuff
Posted on 1/27/16 at 6:21 pm to chauncey1
quote:
This thread is ridiculous... I'm an engineer and have a very strong back ground in earth science- geology/geophysics.
You have no damn clue what you're talking about. I guess there's a reason the Salem hypothesis is a thing,
quote:
The fact of the matter is climate change is real. Man is NOT the primary cause.
There is a metric frick ton of study showing just that. The planet is warming as a result of tons of long since sequestered CO2 being poured into the atmosphere. Where in the hell do you think it's coming from?
quote:
The Great Lakes were glaciers... Deserts weren't always deserts. Arkansas was once underwater in a deep water environment. All of this change happened prior to the industrial revolution.
Which means frick all. Yeah, the climate has changed before. We have a pretty good idea of what lead to those changes. As I've said before, climate reacts to whatever forcings are acting upon it at the time. We are currently the dominant one.
quote:
Does man contribute yes to climate chance? Yes. If I piss in the ocean the water level rises, but is the significant? Depends on your definition...
We're pouring a frick ton of a greenhouse gas that's nature as such has been understood since before the fricking civil war. I'm sure the signifigance of a 120ppm increase, from 280 to 400, a change that generally takes millennia, escapes you. Your fricking stupid comparison is bad and you should feel bad.
quote:
Man overstates his importance, impact and ability to resolve the problems.
The inverse is true here. You're underestimating our importance, impact and ability to frick things up.
quote:
You environmentalists and your "science" is about as soft as a marshmallow. And, the poster that went to Auburn, so I don't respect your physics capabilities. Go learn about geology and study water currents. I hate how the internet is a spring board for the ignorant.
You wouldn't know how science works if it bit you in the arse. Your inability to read and comprehend the overwhelming preponderance of study on this matter then come here and talk shite about my understanding is laughable.
quote:
What a joke. People don't think for themselves. 97% of scientists... Scientists agree climate change is real. Sure there is a degree of anthropogenic climate change. But know one talks about the significance correctly. If the titanic is sinking, do you think you and Dixie cup can keep it afloat. The EARTH IS DYNAMIC PEOPLE!
Our contribution is quite significant and well understood, backed up by a shite tons of study. For one that claims to be an engineer, you inability to grasp these concepts makes no fricking sense at all.
This post was edited on 1/27/16 at 6:23 pm
Posted on 1/27/16 at 6:24 pm to Bigbens42
Two engineers with opposing views?
Let the intellectual dick measuring begin!
Let the intellectual dick measuring begin!
Posted on 1/27/16 at 6:33 pm to Duke
I actually get into it with some other engineers on this matter pretty frequently on another forum. One is a civil engineer that actually has a bit of work experience that is tangentially related to this topic like air dispersion modeling and such, the other a long since retired NASA aerospace engineer. It's a riot.
Posted on 1/27/16 at 7:14 pm to Bigbens42
How old are you. 25? You don't know your arse from your hand.
I can manipulate data to show you whatever your agenda is...
I review technical papers the PhDs write. The majority of them are crap, but they get letters behind their names non the less. Trust the author, not the masses.
You don't know poop. What are you environmental or industrial. Either way, you're probably not a productive member of society...
I can manipulate data to show you whatever your agenda is...
I review technical papers the PhDs write. The majority of them are crap, but they get letters behind their names non the less. Trust the author, not the masses.
You don't know poop. What are you environmental or industrial. Either way, you're probably not a productive member of society...
Posted on 1/27/16 at 7:17 pm to chauncey1
Further models are models. Have you ever done modeling? If so, you'd put as much faith into a model someone else does as I do.
What a jack arse...
What a jack arse...
Page 7 of 9
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News