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StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Florida Fan
Mexico City, Mexico.
Member since Sep 2013
19785 posts

Dark Winter: COVID-19.
As of today, official records state that there are 311,917 deaths and 4,707,069 infected.

Source.

On March 15th, there were 6,532 deaths worldwide.

In two months as stated above, we have come to 311,917.

We have several problems with measuring cases, deaths and mislabeled deaths.

The amount of mislabeled deaths is relatively small, and often times there are other complications that COVID-19 likely aggravated or influenced. (You can in fact, have the flu and COVID-19 at the same time.) In a country like America, we can safely say that the difference between mislabeled and unlabeled very likely balances it all out so the number is likely similar.

Another gigantic problem comes with countries deliberately mislabeling patients and suppressing the numbers of patients who are actually infected. So we are going to need to use ballpark numbers instead of having exact figures.

Japan, for instance, isn't even bothering to really count patients and has stated that it will not release data for a few more years, as per usual with pneumonia.

However, a Japanese official who gave an off-the-record briefing to Asia Times suggested that a “don’t ask, don’t tell” strategy, based on minimal testing and buttressed by information massage, has been quietly emplaced.

Mexico, where I live, has also been hiding COVID-19 deaths in an effort to open the economy. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/world/americas/mexico-coronavirus-count.html

I've noticed it because I know a lot of people here due to my work as an English teacher. I have worked in major companies like TELCEL, Bimbo Bread, Teradata and SOFTEK among numerous others -- my information stream has quite the girth (oh yes) and is constantly replenished with new people getting sick but not being counted officially. In fact, they cremate people before they can even be tested when they do die.

There are at least 74,000 extra deaths that have not been counted officially.

This is on top of the abnormal spikes of dead people all over the world. People who need care can't get it because COVID-19 patients require 2 to 6 weeks depending on the severity and often require a hospital bed as opposed to 7 - 10 days for the flu and obviously the flu doesn't require a hospital stay as often nor as long as COVID-19.

Operation Dark Winter was a simulated bioterror event to emulate what it might look like if our ability to medically "flex" (handle a high volume of patients rapidly) should we be attacked by a biological weapon. The simulation was an abject failure and President George W. Bush, President Barack Obama and President Donald Trump have all ignored the findings in the study.

"What can we do?"

Quarantine is the absolute best measure to stopping an illness and having it not spread. It's one of the oldest tactics and everything I've seen regarding the illness is that it may be here to stay permanently.

In a perfect world we would simply apply a UBI + VAT system in order to keep currency circulating and provide a cushion for both renters and rentees and keeps the economic engine running.

In our world, we'll likely reopen early and have serious problems keeping things running due to certain demographics simply not being able to work. If we were to only isolate the immunocompromised people in the United States, it would be nearly 100 million people, equal in number to America's entire working class.

So, to finish this up:

There are falsely reported COVID-19 Deaths, but there are also many deaths that aren't reported, probably far more. China by themselves is said to have at least 600,000 and counting.

The likely number of dead directly by COVID-19 is probably closer to a million than it is 300,000. The number of dead due to no hospital room (like Italy) is probably significantly higher in urban areas (New York, et al).

Anyway, wash your hands, take this seriously and reconsider how you want to open the country up if you think just going back to work and doing nothing is the correct recipe.


UFMatt
Florida Fan
Gator Nation - Everywhere
Member since Oct 2010
7675 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
And miraculously other causes of death are lower than normal. In the US no one is dying of heart disease, the flu, diabetes. This virus has cured the world of other life threatening illnesses. Cancer deaths are down too, incredible!

DO NOT BELIEVE THE LIES OF GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS THAT ARE PUSHING THE END OF THE WORLD NARRATIVE. THINK FOR YOURSELF, DON'T BE A SHEEP.


UFMatt
Florida Fan
Gator Nation - Everywhere
Member since Oct 2010
7675 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
And thanks for starting this thread, I promise to keep all Covid talk confined to this thread and not trash up the other sports threads.


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StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Florida Fan
Mexico City, Mexico.
Member since Sep 2013
19785 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
quote:

In the US no one is dying of heart disease, the flu, diabetes.


The problem with thinking like this is in the entire world people are dying more in general. As in: The numbers aren't just being put into another category, as in people are dying at hundreds of percent more than normal.

I have literally given all of the information and data from trusted sources.

quote:


DO NOT BELIEVE THE LIES OF GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS THAT ARE PUSHING THE END OF THE WORLD NARRATIVE. THINK FOR YOURSELF, DON'T BE A SHEEP.


I don't particularly believe one government, but when every single government of the world is saying: This is dangerous.

When every single virologist says: This is dangerous.

When every single epidemiologist says: This is dangerous.

When doctors report that they're fainting from how much time they're busy.

When nurses say they don't have room in the hospitals.

When general physicians at every level are saying that we must.

Take.

This.

Seriously.

I fricking believe them.

If you believe all of those people are out to frick you over, you might as well just be a flat-earther and not believe in any kind of science ever for any reason.


finchmeister08
Florida Fan
Member since Mar 2011
21542 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.


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UFMatt
Florida Fan
Gator Nation - Everywhere
Member since Oct 2010
7675 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
Baaaaa, Baaaaaa

quote:

The problem with thinking like this is in the entire world people are dying more in general.
Link?
quote:

Take.

This.

Seriously.
I do take it seriously, but not enough to destroy our economy, republic, country. Or to live my life in fear.


finchmeister08
Florida Fan
Member since Mar 2011
21542 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
i heard somewhere, don't remember where, that the entire state of florida is down 15% after reopening. is this true? i'm in indiana now so i don't know.


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GatorsGators
Florida Fan
#noUFaccessforpio
Member since Oct 2012
13065 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
The idea that anyone who doesn't dismiss all facts that don't align with his/her worldview is a "sheep" is ridiculous

Healthy skepticism is good. Outright denial is bad and the other side of the same coin as blind acceptance.


UFMatt
Florida Fan
Gator Nation - Everywhere
Member since Oct 2010
7675 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
quote:

The idea that anyone who doesn't dismiss all facts that don't align with his/her worldview is a "sheep" is ridiculous


I don't call everyone sheep, but if the shoe fits........

All I am saying is, think for yourself, make your own decisions based on facts, albeit it's hard to get facts right now. Do what you think is right, take ownership in your life, don't depend on the Government to keep you alive. If you want to lock yourself in a closet and wait on the next handout, do it, but that will not last forever. Those of us that pay for that handout will be out working and enjoying life. It is unconstitutional for government in this country to limit your freedom of speech, religion, your right to bear arms, privacy, assembly and your pursuit of happiness.
This post was edited on 5/19 at 1:51 pm


GatorsGators
Florida Fan
#noUFaccessforpio
Member since Oct 2012
13065 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
I am thinking for myself when I say that coronavirus restrictions are probably the 50th worst affront to our civil liberties this century

The Senate shot down, by one vote, a bill that would've removed the government's authority to access our search histories last week (simplified statement). Maybe we should be protesting that affront to our civil liberties

I feel for those negatively impacted economically, and I do think it's about the right time to re-open. Some states have taken restrictions probably a little far; Newsom's expectation that the economy would only start re-opening after two weeks of decreases in new cases was unreasonable. And people called him out on it being unreasonable, and he's now relenting a bit.

Are we likely to get to the point where we can pack a full football stadium without a vaccine, though? Idk. It's a tricky situation that requires more nuance than "if you take it seriously you're a sheep."

I'm not living my life in fear, either (went for a long walk with my dog in Guana yesterday), but I'm willing to at least listen to what experts have to say. Drowning them out because you hate deepstate Democrats or whatever is just as closed-minded and sheep-like as this caricature of a government drone you're painting.


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UFMatt
Florida Fan
Gator Nation - Everywhere
Member since Oct 2010
7675 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
quote:

I am thinking for myself when I say that coronavirus restrictions are probably the 50th worst affront to our civil liberties this century


Really, I would love to see a list of the other 49. There have been more violations of our civil liberties and constitutional rights under the umbrella of protecting us from this virus than any other event in our history.

quote:

I'm not living my life in fear, either (went for a long walk with my dog in Guana yesterday),


Congrats, you probably are not who I am referring to as a sheep.

But if you don't see what is happening to our constitutional freedom due to overreach by public officials, some of which are using this virus for completely political reasons, you must at a minimum be OK with it, I'm not.


StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Florida Fan
Mexico City, Mexico.
Member since Sep 2013
19785 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
You can politicize the virus and it can be dangerous at the same time.

My girlfriend's brother works at IPN (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instituto_Polit%C3%A9cnico_Nacional) as a professor of Biochemical Engineering. I, myself, am ex-military/ex-contractor with CBRNE-defense training.

I digress. The numbers absolutely do not lie and I have provided link after link to show you how wrong you were.

I am not telling you guys to panic, I am telling you guys that our governments must be smarter. They must reorganize society in a way where we don't have to buttfrick anyone who isn't a healthy, young person.

All of those experts aren't trying to keep you inside and control you, Cleetus. People like me, specifically, simply want to improve our societal model and ensure that we modernize our labor. Do people really need to go to work 5 days a week? Do we really need to work in offices with tons of other people?

Twitter just stated that its employees will work from home permanently, Google will likely do the exact same thing or at least severely restrict the time spent in office.

We have to get people back to work, but we have to be smart in how we do it or risk a giant chunk of our population.


roadGator
Florida Fan
Member since Feb 2009
106580 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
Don’t you live in Mexico?


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UFMatt
Florida Fan
Gator Nation - Everywhere
Member since Oct 2010
7675 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
Straws, good post


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LuciusSulla
Florida Fan
Oxford, MS
Member since Nov 2010
2295 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
quote:

We have to get people back to work, but we have to be smart in how we do it or risk a giant chunk of our population.



I agree with this. We can't stay locked down hoping for a vaccine that may never come, nor can we open back up wide open and not expect an increase in deaths.

Sometimes, I'll download the raw data when it is sourced in a pre-pub manuscript and, if the provided scripts are in R, I'll run them to to see what they did. I still mostly agree with the experts, and where I disagree with them has less to do with science than where I fall in my own views on what is the greatest good. Does that still make me a sheep?

One thing is that an epidemiologist's (and other infectious disease experts) job is preventing the spread of disease. Why is anyone surprised that their suggestions focus exclusively on that? Likewise, economist tend to look at economic growth. It's no a conspiracy that experts in those fields are looking after the things those fields are all about. They're both doing their jobs. There's just, in my opinion, a sad lack of statesmen on either side of the aisle up to the task making wise decisions.

We're in a crisis where those two things are seemingly mutually exclusive. The balancing act here is weighing those voices and trying to pick a course of action where you do as little damage as possible in both areas whilst knowing that both areas are going to be adversely affected to some degree. Maybe it's just me, but I don't really see anyone walking through that door that's more concerned about making the hard choices than acting in a way that boosts their poll numbers.

Anyway, I hate getting political on sports forums, and I don't like anyone enough to actually go to bat for them on any side at the moment. I'm troubled by how we got here and if we can get out of it. I don't know if it was the Clinton impeachment, the 2000 election, or 9/11, or Iraq, but somewhere between 1998 and 2002, we entered this partisan tailspin that has impaired our ability to do anything as a society anymore it seems. But then again, I study communication, so, well, see above. Either way, we're going to have to learn how to work with people with whom we don't agree, or I'm not sure where we'll end up.

The vast majority of us will live through this, and more than likely, by the mid 20s, we'll have mostly recovered from whatever damage is going to be done. I just hope we learn something from it at this point.
This post was edited on 5/20 at 4:56 pm


StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Florida Fan
Mexico City, Mexico.
Member since Sep 2013
19785 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
The thing is: I voted for President Obama and President Trump, I'm one of those strange voters who goes from each side of the political spectrum based on what I think is right at the time.

I agree with both sides in this equation. Those who wish to protect human life, and those who wish to provide for their family.

My contention is that our government, despite having decades of data suggesting that this wasn't just going to happen -- it was inevitable -- sat on their hands and waited until the absolute last second to actually start to react and figure out what we can do.

My immediate idea is to first: Get cash directly into the hands of people.

1,000 dollars a month for every working adult who is not on government assistance (until lockdown ends). Counterbalance this with a temporary VAT of 10%. That way, the only people who are cancelling out the stimulus are those spending about 10,000 dollars a month -- no one poor is spending that much money.

Second: Return people to work if they have jobs that are not a full work week and stagger employees' hours when they are on site. That means if you have 20 employees who are accustomed to working Monday thru Friday, change their hours so that they work three days in office, two days home office. If they can work home office more days, then do that. 10 workers are in office from Monday to Thursday, 10 are in from Friday to Sunday. It's a Pandemic, you're not doing anything on the weekend.

Obviously international travel should be completely restricted unless we find a way to literally sterilize every single person flying in as they touch down.

Sports events should continue, although they should continue in empty stadiums.

However:

Even after this crisis, we should be looking to modernize our economy. People should be at home office if it is feasible and companies should be given tax breaks for a multitude of reasons.

Healthier for the environment.
Cuts down on traffic.
Cuts down on time dedicated to work.
Allows for more work hours in a comfortable environment.

I have worked more now at home than I ever have in an office where people can constantly chide me for information or ask me questions that don't matter. Similarly, it took me at least an hour to get to work every day -- so I wasn't working a 9 hour day, I was working an 11 hour day.

I mean, we have a perfect storm to make life easier, more efficient and give people significantly more free time (than they ever had) and instead we just have people ready and willing to go back and work for companies that could not give two fricks about their employees so they can pay taxes to a government who never has their best interest at heart.

It sickens me.
This post was edited on 5/20 at 6:28 pm


UFMatt
Florida Fan
Gator Nation - Everywhere
Member since Oct 2010
7675 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
quote:

The thing is: I voted for President Obama and President Trump,


I don't know how to respond to that. You Sir are conflicted.



The problem with government handouts is that the Federal Government doesn't have any money, except what they take from working citizens in taxes. The best way to put money in working peoples pockets is to reduce or eliminate federal taxes. But, this won't happen because the federal government is spending too much money on things that they are not mandated to do in the constitution. States are where these actions should funded and be taking place. The United States actually fought a civil war over this issue once. While another civil war may not be needed, limits on the federal government are. If the country can get enough constitutional Judges on the bench, you might see this happen. The last 3 years has been a good start.

Be safe, have a great Memorial day weekend and remember the reason for the holiday. Thank you to all the men and women that have fought and died for this country! I am headed for St Augustine, the beach and a few nights on the town. Florida has a great Governor!!!


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Gatorbait2008
Florida Fan
Member since Aug 2015
17607 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
Look. It is a very bad flu. Its death rate is under 1 percent when you calculate asymptomatic cases. It is..well its H1N1 really.

In NY, the epicenter of the disease..I believe it's at 20 people under 40 have died? Most of them likely incredible unhealthy.

Open up. Georgia led the way despite heavy back lash, yet continuously on the decline. Florida is doing fantastic so far.

Alachua has had 7 deaths total. I believe five of them were at nursing homes.

Be safe. Wash hands. Wear mask if you choose.






LuciusSulla
Florida Fan
Oxford, MS
Member since Nov 2010
2295 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
If I were grand poobah of decisions, I would offer this deal:

Everyone wear a mask when indoors and not dining in public areas through at least the rest of the year. If you'll do that, we'll see how much we can open things back up to normal.

I don't know how to do medical research, but stats and sampling are the same regardless of field. I can read those, and a lot of these journals make the data available if you want to run it or whatever other tests you want to run.

By and large, it looks like masks are worth the inconvenience to me. If everybody wears them, even a cloth wrap seems to really reduce - not eliminate but reduce - the amount of virus spread.

I hate wearing them, and not because it's a pain in the ass. It's an albatross around all our necks reminding us that things aren't right and that, for the time being, we've all lost a bit of our lives. Every time you see one, it's a reminder that this fricking sucks. However, I think if people would just accept it for the shitty hand that it is for now and go with it, we could resume a whole lot of normal life until there is a vaccine. And while I was initially pessimistic about the vaccine, there seems a lot of strong evidence over the last two weeks that one can eventually be developed.

Basically, if everybody would just be cool for somewhere between 6 - 18 months, we'll get through this. We don't have to be hermits, but we may have to do a few things for the time being that are less than ideal. But if we do them, we can probably limit the spread of this and knock the fatality ratio well under 0.5%.


UFMatt
Florida Fan
Gator Nation - Everywhere
Member since Oct 2010
7675 posts

re: Dark Winter: COVID-19.
I had a great Memorial Day holiday weekend in St. Augustine. Most of the restaurants and shops downtown were open. The beaches were loaded but most were social distancing or in small groups. Very few masks being worn, I would not enter a business that makes you wear a mask, but that is just me. To each his own.

I don't understand why some businesses were still closed. Lot of customers for the ones that were open.

Good times in the oldest city! Cant wait to return is a few weeks.
This post was edited on 5/27 at 8:06 am


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