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re: 2019 Recruiting Thread: Return of the Mullen. Updated 10/30.

Posted on 11/19/18 at 8:52 pm to
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 11/19/18 at 8:52 pm to
quote:

Once this awful senior class is off the roster it should go up pretty fast. Or at least I've read that somewhere.


They're talking about the recruiting class itself, but Mullen has had more blue chips (% wise) than McElwain and Muschamp the past four years. We've gotten a talent injection, and it's expected to expand this year (now).
Posted by Porter Osborne Jr
Member since Sep 2012
39976 posts
Posted on 11/19/18 at 9:20 pm to
My bad. I thought they were talking about the program as a whole. They're nuts if they think this class is that low on blue chippers. Are they using ESPN or some other junk site?
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 12:08 am to
No, they foolishly used an algorithm that determined that the ratio of blue chip players was virtually the same and used that to say that 'on field results don't mean anything'.

Of course, it got amended because winning over time clearly, demonstrably, shows that teams who win generally recruit better than those who do not.

Just to clarify:

They said that August 1st would determine the blue chip ratio of NSD. Obviously, we will not end with 25% blue chips unless something bad happens.
Posted by BloodSweat&Beers
One Particular Harbor, Fl
Member since Jan 2012
9153 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 6:45 am to
quote:

No, they foolishly used an algorithm that determined that the ratio of blue chip players was virtually the same and used that to say that 'on field results don't mean anything'.

Of course, it got amended because winning over time clearly, demonstrably, shows that teams who win generally recruit better than those who do not.

Just to clarify:

They said that August 1st would determine the blue chip ratio of NSD. Obviously, we will not end with 25% blue chips unless something bad happens.


From what little attention I pay to those guys, they have a point why UF sucks and they find a stat to back that up. Worked extremely well with shark fricker.
Posted by atlgator
Jacksonville, Atlanta, Gainesville
Member since Aug 2014
5520 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 7:20 am to
David Waters is less negative, but Will Miles and Bill Sikes are the worst about this.

They take their relative and abstract number and claim if the recruiting class isn’t ranked x then it’s not successful and we should shut the program down.

Basically, the 9th ranked class is not good enough and only the #1 class will do. I get the sentiment, I want us to have the #1 class every year too, but that’s just silly to suggest that everybody’s failing and the program needs to be shut down if we don’t hit some obscure number they’ve made up. And they just come across as know it all assholes, so they rub me the wrong way.
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:39 am to
That's the thing, their #s are great but football isn't about direct numbers. I FULLY trust Mullen with the 9th ranked class vs. Georgia having a top 5 class. The numbers aren't that extreme from a highly rated 4* to a 5*. I prefer a refined 4* to an undeveloped 5* (see: Martez Ivey this year, well, all of his career).

To the podcast: The vast majority of them were beating war drums for people to panic, and then when Mullen started cleaning up shop on the field, suddenly it's time to go back and change some predictions.

Top ten recruiting with Mullen, getting his recruits, will do great things for Florida. Especially seeing as how he could pretty much up the production on every single offensive position.

Defense we knew was going to be tough because of depth, but I've seen MSST. I know he's going to be okay once he gets guys that fit the scheme.

tl;dr: Podcasts shouldn't tell people to panic until afterward.
Posted by Porter Osborne Jr
Member since Sep 2012
39976 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 12:17 pm to
quote:

Basically, the 9th ranked class is not good enough


It's not if you plan on winning the national championship. For the last decade plus, those who have won it have had at least one top 5 class in their system.

quote:

only the #1 class will do


They're definitely off on this.
Posted by atlgator
Jacksonville, Atlanta, Gainesville
Member since Aug 2014
5520 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 1:54 pm to
I may be wrong, but I don’t think Clemson or Auburn have had a top 5 class in the 4 years leading up to their championships.
Posted by dbuchanon
Member since Nov 2014
19837 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 2:34 pm to
They werent in the top 10 on avg i believe
Posted by Porter Osborne Jr
Member since Sep 2012
39976 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 3:10 pm to
I think Clemson broke the trend. I'll have to find the article but that may just be a wild goose chase at this point since it was from 2-3 years ago.
Posted by dbuchanon
Member since Nov 2014
19837 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 3:27 pm to
Too many ppl get caught up in a ranking. It doesnt mean shite. Its about the needs you fill

Posted by Porter Osborne Jr
Member since Sep 2012
39976 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 3:31 pm to
quote:

Too many ppl get caught up in a ranking. It doesnt mean shite.


Say what?
Posted by reel_gator8
Seminole,Fl
Member since May 2012
11060 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 4:54 pm to
Bama signs three stars... maybe just a few...but they can turn out very well if you scouted correctly and developed them. The NFL is full of 3 stars.
Posted by Porter Osborne Jr
Member since Sep 2012
39976 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 5:10 pm to
quote:

Bama signs three stars... maybe just a few...but they can turn out very well if you scouted correctly and developed them. The NFL is full of 3 stars.


True, but the odds are much higher on winning a national championship withe a team loaded with 5 stars. Plus the odds of being drafted in the first round a substantially greater for a 5 star than a 3 star.
Posted by atlgator
Jacksonville, Atlanta, Gainesville
Member since Aug 2014
5520 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 8:24 pm to
This is basically right. Florida’s starters this year and comparable to Georgia’s starters. This will be true this year and in the next couple of years. The difference now, and for the next couple of years until Mullen gets elite classes in, is that Georgia has more depth.

Chris Henderson gets hurt, Marco Wilson gets hurt, and we were fricked against Georgia. When you recruit like Alabama and Georgia and Ohio state, you have a drop off naturally, but you have talented depth behind those guys. Not Chris McWilliams running around. We’re going to recruit well enough to have starters that can compete with anybody (maybe not Bama).

The key is recruiting at an elite enough level that we have depth that can compete for 4 quarters through a long season, so that an injury here and there doesn’t derail us and so we don’t fade down the stretch. That’s why decent to good recruiting has gotten us to where we’re at right now. Take the next step to consistently getting elite guys and top classes, and all of a sudden we have the depth to compete with anybody. That’s how you get Cam Newton backing up Tim Tebow, Riley Cooper and Louis Murphy playing special teams, etc. We have the coach that can scheme with Kirby, Saban, Meyer, and anybody else in the country. If he can get us the players here he can win championships.
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 11/21/18 at 2:26 pm to
Watching Bill Sikes squirm makes me happy.
Posted by Muthsera
Member since Jun 2017
7319 posts
Posted on 11/21/18 at 6:46 pm to
quote:


They take their relative and abstract number and claim if the recruiting class isn’t ranked x then it’s not successful and we should shut the program down.


People refuse to acknowledge that Bama is a huge outlier in terms of recruiting rankings and championships. If you were to strike Bama from history when they had #1 8 years in a row or whatever and award all their titles to the runner up or replay the rankings, things would look vastly different. Teams like Washington, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Notre Dame, etc might have easily won with merely very good rankings, but nothing like what we've seen.

I refuse to believe that Bama's recruiting is the only reason they win like they do. Plays a big part, but the rest of their program is so far ahead of the curve, they would dominate just as much if they averaged 3-4 less blue chip recruits every year.
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 11/21/18 at 8:34 pm to
It's the same thing when people trash Mullen for being at Mississippi State, of course recruiting at both of the extremes will yield results.

Alabama is the juggernaut they are because you need a combination of development, scheme and of course talent.

Look at Muschamp's/Meyer's classes before 2013 (when we lost to an FCS team).

2010: #1 (Greatest class of all time)
2011: #11 (12 of the 19 players were blue chips)
2012: #3 (15 of 22 were blue chips)
2013: #3

I mean, for all intents and purposes we literally had an average class of 4.5 (With the one 'bad' class having 63% blue chips) before going on to losing to an FCS team.

I would much rather have a coach who can recruit and develop talent rather than a coach who is an outstanding recruiter. I'd love to have both, but gun to my head I want the guy who can bring up a literal Vanderbilt of the West to actually being relevant rather than someone who can't be consistent without having the #1 class every year (Cough, cough, Kirby).
Posted by slayerxing
Gainesville
Member since Feb 2010
11045 posts
Posted on 11/22/18 at 8:26 am to
You are hating on Kirby? Isn’t he like 24-3 in the last 2 years?
Posted by atlgator
Jacksonville, Atlanta, Gainesville
Member since Aug 2014
5520 posts
Posted on 11/22/18 at 8:37 am to
Yeah, Kirby’s been at UGA 3 years, been to 2 SECCG in a row, and was a couple plays from a natty. That’s building something pretty damn consistent. I don’t think he’s elite x’s and o’s, but he’s an elite recruiter and will have good teams as long as he’s there because he’s going to get good players in recruiting.

That’s why we gotta pick it up and recruit at an elite level. We’re going to be in good shape with Mullen at head coach, but we do need to recruit. I think we will be fine.
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