re: Which Iron Bowl win was the most unlikely for Auburn

Either PBP or Cam, because of the low odds of winning those games at those points (before the 1st Bama punt and during the Ingram run where he fumbled through the endzone).

The Kick Six was insane but by the time it happened Auburn was already the most likely winner of the game. If the Kick Six doesn't happen we go to OT, and Auburn had the clear advantage there. Auburn had less of a chance to win that game when Alabama had the ball inside their 20 with a chance to take a 2 score lead with less than 5 minutes to play. That was where Auburn won the game (and Alabama lost it).