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LSU Breakdown.
Posted on 10/6/19 at 8:27 pm
Posted on 10/6/19 at 8:27 pm
A lot of people still aren't sold on us after the last game but something interesting of note:
We held Auburn to the fewest yards of the season yesterday and also had the most yards posted on their defense than anyone they had played. It was an impressive win despite our flaws and I look forward to watching this team grow as the year goes on, that being said...let's get onto business with LSU.
I watched the Texas and Vanderbilt game (the two best teams that they've played so far, or at least who gave them the most trouble).
So, to my favorite position: QBs.
Joe Burrow - I hate to say it, but he's legitimate. LSU's offense is kind of built like ours. A little bit of a pedestrian running game with an above average passing game. The takeaway, though, is that they have literally not played a decent defense all year.
Texas - 102nd in total defense.
Vanderbilt - 125th.
Utah State - 57th.
Auburn - 33rd.
Miami - 13th.
Kyle Trask - The good news is that his issues are easily coachable with time and experience in the game. Holding onto the ball too long is much easier to fix than say, reading a defense or maintaining focus. His footwork is improving, his eyes have always been pretty sharp but we need to work on simply stopping him from holding the ball too long. Pretty easy fix.
We've played several tough defenses and Trask has only played one (since he wasn't in the Miami game this year) but I most people and even experts are saying that Auburn may have the best pass rush in the entire country, so considering, we're in a pretty good position.
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Offenses.
LSU's offense really isn't creative or complex. 90% of their plan is to simply find a one on one matchup and use their talented WRs to get the job done. Their offensive line is kind of a mirror of ours. Decent pass protection, dogshit push for rush.
Their numbers are good, but again: They haven't really met anyone with a stout rush defense.
Florida's offense is quite the same. We haven't run anything creative or complex and we just try to get the best matchup and hit it every single down. Usually it comes through the air.
Our numbers are good, and we have played at least two decent defenses. Auburn's defense is 100% better than any defense they have met, but the problem...
I don't think we can move the ball without significant help from the offensive line. We are going to have serious penalties, we haven't played on the road at a loud stadium yet and this will be the wildest game we've played in.
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LSU Defense:
The defensive line isn't as good as Auburn's by any stretch and they don't get a ton of pressure without blitzing which bodes better for us. Their front four have seemed pedestrian several times, and of course every defensive line gets to the QB eventually but against subpar teams they didn't seem to get very much push at all.
They also seem to tire greatly by the 4th quarter and you can see the decline in the 3rd quarter. Tackling, assignments, everything seems to fall apart. Some might call it apathy because of a big lead, but you can see it in their body language that they just simply don't have anything left in the tank by the end of the game which is in stark contrast to...
Florida's defense: Starting to really come together. As stated above, we held Auburn to their lowest offensive output for the entire season, and it could have been a lot lower if Mullen wasn't dicking around on our side of the ball.
We held them to:
31 less yards than their stiffest opponent.
1 Touchdown and their low was 3.
124 rushing yards when their lowest was 172.
They would have likely never scored a touchdown without the fake punt, and we could have easily scored a lot more points without the silly fumbles.
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Prediction:
Pessimistic: Our offensive line is our downfall. Their inability to communicate renders our passing offense useless and LSU gets to us on almost every play by dialing up the blitz. On the other side of the ball, their receivers bully our DBs and push us around winning the majority of the one on one balls and push us down the field almost at will.
31 - 17 Tigers.
Optimistic: The simplicity of our offense cuts down on the wait time for the QB and, ironically, facilitates things for our offensive line that moves from "zone" blocking to man. Simply taking who is there and we are able to push the ball downfield at will. On the defensive side of the ball, we get to Burrow multiple times and put his face in the ground enough times to force him to make mistakes much like we did with Nix.
28 - 10 - Gators.
Realistic: Our offensive line struggles again, our defense doesn't get to Burrow in time and this is the first game we likely lose even though we keep it close.
28 - 24 - Toss up.
LSU Weaknesses: Secondary, rushing game.
Florida Weaknesses: Offensive line, rushing game.
We held Auburn to the fewest yards of the season yesterday and also had the most yards posted on their defense than anyone they had played. It was an impressive win despite our flaws and I look forward to watching this team grow as the year goes on, that being said...let's get onto business with LSU.
I watched the Texas and Vanderbilt game (the two best teams that they've played so far, or at least who gave them the most trouble).
So, to my favorite position: QBs.
Joe Burrow - I hate to say it, but he's legitimate. LSU's offense is kind of built like ours. A little bit of a pedestrian running game with an above average passing game. The takeaway, though, is that they have literally not played a decent defense all year.
Texas - 102nd in total defense.
Vanderbilt - 125th.
Utah State - 57th.
Auburn - 33rd.
Miami - 13th.
Kyle Trask - The good news is that his issues are easily coachable with time and experience in the game. Holding onto the ball too long is much easier to fix than say, reading a defense or maintaining focus. His footwork is improving, his eyes have always been pretty sharp but we need to work on simply stopping him from holding the ball too long. Pretty easy fix.
We've played several tough defenses and Trask has only played one (since he wasn't in the Miami game this year) but I most people and even experts are saying that Auburn may have the best pass rush in the entire country, so considering, we're in a pretty good position.
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Offenses.
LSU's offense really isn't creative or complex. 90% of their plan is to simply find a one on one matchup and use their talented WRs to get the job done. Their offensive line is kind of a mirror of ours. Decent pass protection, dogshit push for rush.
Their numbers are good, but again: They haven't really met anyone with a stout rush defense.
Florida's offense is quite the same. We haven't run anything creative or complex and we just try to get the best matchup and hit it every single down. Usually it comes through the air.
Our numbers are good, and we have played at least two decent defenses. Auburn's defense is 100% better than any defense they have met, but the problem...
I don't think we can move the ball without significant help from the offensive line. We are going to have serious penalties, we haven't played on the road at a loud stadium yet and this will be the wildest game we've played in.
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LSU Defense:
The defensive line isn't as good as Auburn's by any stretch and they don't get a ton of pressure without blitzing which bodes better for us. Their front four have seemed pedestrian several times, and of course every defensive line gets to the QB eventually but against subpar teams they didn't seem to get very much push at all.
They also seem to tire greatly by the 4th quarter and you can see the decline in the 3rd quarter. Tackling, assignments, everything seems to fall apart. Some might call it apathy because of a big lead, but you can see it in their body language that they just simply don't have anything left in the tank by the end of the game which is in stark contrast to...
Florida's defense: Starting to really come together. As stated above, we held Auburn to their lowest offensive output for the entire season, and it could have been a lot lower if Mullen wasn't dicking around on our side of the ball.
We held them to:
31 less yards than their stiffest opponent.
1 Touchdown and their low was 3.
124 rushing yards when their lowest was 172.
They would have likely never scored a touchdown without the fake punt, and we could have easily scored a lot more points without the silly fumbles.
-----------
Prediction:
Pessimistic: Our offensive line is our downfall. Their inability to communicate renders our passing offense useless and LSU gets to us on almost every play by dialing up the blitz. On the other side of the ball, their receivers bully our DBs and push us around winning the majority of the one on one balls and push us down the field almost at will.
31 - 17 Tigers.
Optimistic: The simplicity of our offense cuts down on the wait time for the QB and, ironically, facilitates things for our offensive line that moves from "zone" blocking to man. Simply taking who is there and we are able to push the ball downfield at will. On the defensive side of the ball, we get to Burrow multiple times and put his face in the ground enough times to force him to make mistakes much like we did with Nix.
28 - 10 - Gators.
Realistic: Our offensive line struggles again, our defense doesn't get to Burrow in time and this is the first game we likely lose even though we keep it close.
28 - 24 - Toss up.
LSU Weaknesses: Secondary, rushing game.
Florida Weaknesses: Offensive line, rushing game.
2
Posted on 10/6/19 at 8:51 pm to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
LSUs offense is very good at scheming to get the best matchup, sort of like what Mullen did with Swain and Pitts against Auburn.
In this game, the running game will need to come alive. If the UF OL can play better in run blocking against a front 7 not as good as Auburn’s, we have a shot.
I don’t see anyway UF beats LSU without the 3 things happening:
1) winning the turnover battle
2) matching LSUs production on the ground
3) winning TOP
In this game, the running game will need to come alive. If the UF OL can play better in run blocking against a front 7 not as good as Auburn’s, we have a shot.
I don’t see anyway UF beats LSU without the 3 things happening:
1) winning the turnover battle
2) matching LSUs production on the ground
3) winning TOP
Posted on 10/6/19 at 10:05 pm to boXerrumble
I will add my thoughts...first I am not pessimistic at all and the kittens have to prove to me they can win.
Our defense is what will win the game...as in almost all games. Our defense is a LOT better than folks think. Im hoping those crazy Cajuns are posting shite on social media about scoring 40 + on us. Our defensive players will read their crap and be riled up.
We are the REAL DBU leading the country in picks and probably 2nd in sacks. Our DL locks down when teams get close to the red zone...4th and 1/2 yd to go? Teams will learn not to risk it. Joey will have Gators in his face a lot....cant throw strikes when you are horizontal.
Our defense is what will win the game...as in almost all games. Our defense is a LOT better than folks think. Im hoping those crazy Cajuns are posting shite on social media about scoring 40 + on us. Our defensive players will read their crap and be riled up.
We are the REAL DBU leading the country in picks and probably 2nd in sacks. Our DL locks down when teams get close to the red zone...4th and 1/2 yd to go? Teams will learn not to risk it. Joey will have Gators in his face a lot....cant throw strikes when you are horizontal.
Posted on 10/6/19 at 10:21 pm to real_gator8
The best thing about this game is even a loss here ( which I hope we blow them out of the stadium) is not the end of our season we will still hold our own destiny if we win out so if we are going to drop a game this is the one we can drop and really not do anything to our goals for the season
Posted on 10/6/19 at 10:28 pm to AlbinoGator
quote:
The best thing about this game is even a loss here ( which I hope we blow them out of the stadium) is not the end of our season we will still hold our own destiny if we win out so if we are going to drop a game this is the one we can drop and really not do anything to our goals for the season
Which is exactly why we should play as fast and loose as possible. Have fun, play wild, and maybe.....just maybe....WE WIN!!!!
Posted on 10/6/19 at 10:31 pm to AlbinoGator
This. As long as we look good, we can walk away with everything in front of us. I think LSU is scary in that they can score quickly if we make mistakes(see blown coverage Nix overthrew or TD). I think we need to score at least 28. End of the day no defense can completely shut down these new style offenses. It's so freaking hard to do it now. So we have to contain it. No big plays, make them earn points by driving. On the counter, Mullen needs to work to set up plays that will pay off huge and we must execute well(the Perine run) when they get set up.
End of the day...its going to be tough to get a win here. They have good DBs, they have a very scary offense. The metrics say we have very little chance of winning it seems which usually is not a good thing.
UF needs to play near perfectly here. I hope to hell it happens but my confidence isnt as high as it was vs Auburn or will be vs Georgia. This is the toughest battle we have this year, no question.
End of the day...its going to be tough to get a win here. They have good DBs, they have a very scary offense. The metrics say we have very little chance of winning it seems which usually is not a good thing.
UF needs to play near perfectly here. I hope to hell it happens but my confidence isnt as high as it was vs Auburn or will be vs Georgia. This is the toughest battle we have this year, no question.
Posted on 10/6/19 at 11:10 pm to Gatorbait2008
We will score at will by the 4th quarter as long as they're throwing that many times.
We really, really just need to control the ball and get first downs, defense needs to play two deep every play with mixed coverage.
I think we can stop it because we will 100% get pressure on Burrow. I don't think any team can contain our pass rush right now so if we press and play two up top, I think we can get to Burrow without blitzing and cause problems.
It's gonna be a tough game, though. This is one of the only games I don't feel well about unless we get turnovers and our offense just methodically moves it down the field.
We really, really just need to control the ball and get first downs, defense needs to play two deep every play with mixed coverage.
I think we can stop it because we will 100% get pressure on Burrow. I don't think any team can contain our pass rush right now so if we press and play two up top, I think we can get to Burrow without blitzing and cause problems.
It's gonna be a tough game, though. This is one of the only games I don't feel well about unless we get turnovers and our offense just methodically moves it down the field.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 4:23 am to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Well one thing I disagree on is the shootout agenda Gator fans are saying we need to enable us to win.."not so fast sweetheart" 
Actually I see a much lower scoring game with Mullen trying to shorten the clock as much as possible...its a SEC game that's going to have hard hitting and rely on old fashioned principles...field position and tough defense. We don't have to run the ball to milk the clock...we can complete short passes and the clock runs...even going out of bounds doesn't stop the clock but for a few seconds unless its with 2 minutes left in the game.
Mullen believes in the values that made SEC football great...there will be no shootout that some think will or should happen. Our defense can win the game...we just need the offense to protect the ball..Trask cannot fumble in a hostile environment...the noise meter will redline.
Making a first down and punting is not a bad thing..we have a great weapon in Townsend who can make the kitties march down the field the long way. The odds of a drive starting at your own 12 yd line and getting a score is not good....too many bad things happen when you have to march 88 yds...sacks, penalties, interceptions and fumbles. After making them drive the field and not scoring a few times the kitties rectums will tighten. The crowd gets quieter.
Im predicting a score of no more than 30 and maybe less to win.
Actually I see a much lower scoring game with Mullen trying to shorten the clock as much as possible...its a SEC game that's going to have hard hitting and rely on old fashioned principles...field position and tough defense. We don't have to run the ball to milk the clock...we can complete short passes and the clock runs...even going out of bounds doesn't stop the clock but for a few seconds unless its with 2 minutes left in the game.
Mullen believes in the values that made SEC football great...there will be no shootout that some think will or should happen. Our defense can win the game...we just need the offense to protect the ball..Trask cannot fumble in a hostile environment...the noise meter will redline.
Making a first down and punting is not a bad thing..we have a great weapon in Townsend who can make the kitties march down the field the long way. The odds of a drive starting at your own 12 yd line and getting a score is not good....too many bad things happen when you have to march 88 yds...sacks, penalties, interceptions and fumbles. After making them drive the field and not scoring a few times the kitties rectums will tighten. The crowd gets quieter.
Im predicting a score of no more than 30 and maybe less to win.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 6:33 am to real_gator8
Yes, we are number one in picks in the country and we are number 2 in sacks. We would be number one in sacks also if it weren't for two grounding non-flags by Bo Nix last week.
The biggest take away from Auburn game that has me a little more confident is minus one play our D played with great gap awareness.
My biggest concern in LSU using slants against our best tackler Reese. He is a good commander of our D. But, he doesn't have the speed for covering. See lots of nickle being played. So Todd will need to dialup DB blitzes.
The biggest take away from Auburn game that has me a little more confident is minus one play our D played with great gap awareness.
My biggest concern in LSU using slants against our best tackler Reese. He is a good commander of our D. But, he doesn't have the speed for covering. See lots of nickle being played. So Todd will need to dialup DB blitzes.
This post was edited on 10/7/19 at 6:35 am
Posted on 10/7/19 at 6:59 am to GobyGator
Reese doesn't really do pass coverage...our OLBs do that and they are FAST. Brunson, Houston, Miller and Burney will cover slants usually. No problem.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 7:33 am to AlbinoGator
quote:
The best thing about this game is even a loss here ( which I hope we blow them out of the stadium) is not the end of our season we will still hold our own destiny if we win out so if we are going to drop a game this is the one we can drop and really not do anything to our goals for the season
I can't believe I'm about to say this... But I agree with real on this.
Why do y'all just assume LSU will blow us out?
Posted on 10/7/19 at 8:18 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
This. As long as we look good, we can walk away with everything in front of us.
While this may be true, there are no moral victories. I expect a win, Gator team does to. Let's do this!!!!!
Go Gators
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:56 am to boXerrumble
quote:
I can't believe I'm about to say this... But I agree with real on this.
Why do y'all just assume LSU will blow us out?
I don't think they'll blow us out, but I think Grantham's defenses have struggled with guys like Burrow -- who can identify the play pre-snap and easily make the read then pass the ball. That part kind of scares me because I haven't seen Grantham's defense actually stop guys like Burrow -- and until our defense does, I won't trust them.
The bigger reason, however, is that our offensive line has been pitiful. Now it's a night game on the road and they won't be able to communicate.
However, there is an optimistic side, too: We've never had a raw pass rush like this and maybe not being able to hear will simplify the offense enough to where it might actually help our offensive line.
I'm not as confident about this game as I am for the rest of the schedule, regardless.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 12:18 pm to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
These. It's just not a great match up in a tough environment. Doesn't mean I think we can't win, just that it's not as likely as other games. I mean we have to play near perfect here to win. Just what it is. We can't have the fumbles, we can't have the holding calls on big plays, etc. I really think we match up well with Georgia. I hope we win but I understand why if we lose
Posted on 10/7/19 at 12:28 pm to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
quote:
I don't think they'll blow us out, but I think Grantham's defenses have struggled with guys like Burrow -- who can identify the play pre-snap and easily make the read then pass the ball. That part kind of scares me because I haven't seen Grantham's defense actually stop guys like Burrow -- and until our defense does, I won't trust them.
The bigger reason, however, is that our offensive line has been pitiful. Now it's a night game on the road and they won't be able to communicate.
However, there is an optimistic side, too: We've never had a raw pass rush like this and maybe not being able to hear will simplify the offense enough to where it might actually help our offensive line.
I'm not as confident about this game as I am for the rest of the schedule, regardless.
Burrow had a problem against Grantham's defense last year. He had not thrown an INT up until the UF game. Burrow appears to be a different QB this year but they have not faced a great defense yet.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 1:09 pm to BloodSweat&Beers
We aint losing, I wont allow it !!!
Posted on 10/7/19 at 3:24 pm to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Good offenses just don’t worry me as much as good defenses. That 2008 Oklahoma team had the best offense in college football history and we held them to 14 points. Granted it was big 12, but they scored 60+ in their last 5 games.
Not comparing this gator team to the 2008 team at all, but just pointing out that great offenses can be stopped.
Also, LSU has played 4 cupcakes and 1 legitimate team.
Not comparing this gator team to the 2008 team at all, but just pointing out that great offenses can be stopped.
Also, LSU has played 4 cupcakes and 1 legitimate team.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 4:02 pm to gatorsimz
LSU also has very good defensive backs which is my worry. If we could push them off the line we could run all day on them. Problem is we can't. So we have to throw vs a good defensive back field.
Posted on 10/7/19 at 4:23 pm to BloodSweat&Beers
quote:
Burrow appears to be a different QB this year
Playing bottom 100 defenses will make it look that way
Posted on 10/7/19 at 7:28 pm to dbuchanon
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