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re: Tell me about Florida's football team this year...should I take them -7 over Miami?

Posted on 7/24/19 at 7:59 pm to
Posted by slayerxing
Gainesville
Member since Feb 2010
11045 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 7:59 pm to
Soooo goal line tds don’t count now?

I mean... it’s not as easy as it looks.

I won’t split hairs with you tho. I mean it’s easier to make your point if you just waive those away.

He accounted for 500 more total yards, 10 more total tds and was 5-3 as a starter playing against 4 top 25 defenses which is more than he faced in 2017. So tougher competition but still much more productive.

He got better.

And this is only referring to sec play. Obviously he peaked at year end ooc against FSU and Michigan.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
33147 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 8:31 pm to
1. Goal line td runs do count for scores in games, but that’s not the point of the discussion. Offensive system is a variable that must be taken into account. Since he didn’t play in an offense that utilizes qb runs in 2017, qb runs are not an apples to apples comparison like passing is.

2. Number of plays is another important variable. When you get 56 more pass attempts, you are naturally going to have more passing production.

3 The tougher opposing team claim is true, but he also played with a better supporting cast. These 2 variables more or less cancel each other out.




Posted by fibonaccisquared
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
16898 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 8:52 pm to
Take your goddamned upvote and like it for the Dodgeball gif...
Posted by slayerxing
Gainesville
Member since Feb 2010
11045 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 9:11 pm to
Ok, so in a run first offense (since we are taking offenses into account)

He doubled his passing TDs (from 5 to 10), while keeping his Turnovers constant. So he had 56 more passing attempts in SEC games but had the same number of interceptions, against better competition.

That's just SEC play.

And speaking of his running, he had 24 rushing attempts on 3rd down in 2017, and only got 4 first downs in SEC play, good for about 16% conversion. In 2018 he had 30 rushing attempts on 3rd down and converted 17, good for 56.7%. A HUGE increase over 2017 in SEC play.

So yeah, he got a lot better at running too. He couldn't do shite on the ground in 2017. That's one of the reasons he was not even able to get a single rushing TD in 2017, and he got 7 total and 5 in SEC play in 2018.

So not only did he become a more serviceable passer, he also improved in his running game.

So... he got better, especially late in the season. He has a long way to go, he isn't exactly a fan favorite, but to not give him credit for improving is ridiculous.


This post was edited on 7/24/19 at 9:12 pm
Posted by atlgator
Jacksonville, Atlanta, Gainesville
Member since Aug 2014
5520 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 9:13 pm to
quote:

You tell us what makes those 1 yard td runs so impressive


4 of Franks 7 rushing touchdowns came from more than 5 yards out.
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 10:14 pm to
quote:

4 of Franks 7 rushing touchdowns came from more than 5 yards out.


Say it louder for his mental problems in the back, baw.
Posted by ugacdawg
Atlanta
Member since Nov 2017
418 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 10:15 pm to
According to 247 Florida averages a score of 88.28 per player on the roster at the end of 2018. Miami was 88.17. That’s not much difference and one could argue that UF has moved backward since and Miami forward due to portal transfers.

Miami has a real concern at QB but the D is legit and I think it might be tighter than a lot of UF fans are thinking.
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 10:15 pm to
quote:

Take your goddamned upvote and like it for the Dodgeball gif...


It was extremely pertinent.
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 10:24 pm to
quote:

According to 247 Florida averages a score of 88.28 per player on the roster at the end of 2018. Miami was 88.17. That’s not much difference and one could argue that UF has moved backward since and Miami forward due to portal transfers.

Miami has a real concern at QB but the D is legit and I think it might be tighter than a lot of UF fans are thinking.


Clemson's average player last year was 90.23.

Alabama's was 92.56.

It is all about how you use your talent and the way the team prepares. Kentucky's average was 85.84 and they beat us (88.28) because of several factors:

We were changing our entire defensive and offensive scheme, we were missing two of our best run-stoppers (CeCe and David Reese II) and we had a QB that did not fit our current coach's system.

This is just one example of how a team with lesser talent can beat a team with more talent because of the transition year, and similarly that a team with an entrenched head coach can easily overcome the talent gap against a team with more talent.

In the end, if our talent is similar I am 100% giving the edge to an SEC HC with 9 years of experience in the hardest division of the hardest conference in the country.

New Head Coaches don't tend to do well at the P5 level, as I have already pointed out. Even Dabo, Meyer, Saban, you name it, none of them had stellar first seasons as HCs (and some of them had G5 experience, which Manny does not).

We gonna kill 'em.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
33147 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 10:25 pm to
quote:

4 of Franks 7 rushing touchdowns came from more than 5 yards out.


We know Franks kicked arse vs weak ooc opponents.

In sec play, he had three 1 yard td runs, and a 3 yard td run. So he can double as a fullback. Good for him.
Posted by fibonaccisquared
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
16898 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 10:30 pm to
quote:

It was extremely pertinent.


I'm about to start queueing this one up for the next time you and djs can't seem to stop kicking yourselves in the dick...
















In case you were interested wtf that is...
quote:

Here at GA Tech, we truly/deeply care about the strength of your groin and attack it with Extreme Exaggerated Passion.
@StrengthGT

@GeorgiaTechFB

#404theCULTURE #404Takeover

This is a real tweet... EEP.
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 10:30 pm to
3rd & 4 at SC 10

(8:58 - 2nd) Feleipe Franks run for 10 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)

Ummmmmm...
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 10:33 pm to
Florida State has the best Tweets of all goddamn time, man.



This was a real Tweet. MLK Jr. doing the Tomahawk Chop.
Posted by fibonaccisquared
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
16898 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 10:34 pm to
quote:

This was a real Tweet. MLK Jr. doing the Tomahawk Chop.


It's no dick slap fest... but it's quality source material, that's for sure.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
33147 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 10:38 pm to
quote:

3rd & 4 at SC 10

(8:58 - 2nd) Feleipe Franks run for 10 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK


Yes, that one time he ran for a TD in SEC play and not on the goal line. I think 2017 Franks could have also done the same thing, but his coach didn't call for his QB to run like Mullen does.
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 10:49 pm to
quote:

Yes, that one time he ran for a TD in SEC play and not on the goal line. I think 2017 Franks could have also done the same thing, but his coach didn't call for his QB to run like Mullen does.


You could also say that he could have run for longer touchdowns if his coach called more runs.

That is illogical, Mr. Schrute.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
33147 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 10:56 pm to
quote:

He doubled his passing TDs (from 5 to 10), while keeping his Turnovers constant. So he had 56 more passing attempts in SEC games but had the same number of interceptions, against better competition.


Those are signs of improvement, but completion % and YPA aren't, and all 4 go into passer efficiency rating. Thats why his SEC passer rating only improved minimally. I would have expected a much better SEC passer rating with the added experience, Mullen, the better OL, and the better WRs.

quote:

And speaking of his running, he had 24 rushing attempts on 3rd down in 2017, and only got 4 first downs in SEC play, good for about 16% conversion. In 2018 he had 30 rushing attempts on 3rd down and converted 17, good for 56.7%. A HUGE increase over 2017 in SEC play.


How many of those 3rd down runs in 2017 were planned QB runs? This makes a huge difference. Mullen puts the Qb at a running advantage. The 2017 guy didnt. The quality of the OL also impacts short yardage runs, and no doubt his 2018 OL was far better.

3rd and short runs:

2017: 3 attempts
2018: 14 attempts

quote:

o yeah, he got a lot better at running too. He couldn't do shite on the ground in 2017. That's one of the reasons he was not even able to get a single rushing TD in 2017, and he got 7 total and 5 in SEC play in 2018.


Redzone rushing attempts:

2017: 8
2018: 33

quote:

So... he got better, especially late in the season.


As soon as he got to face Idaho, the worst FSU team since the 70's, and a neutered Michigan D, he was pretty good. We already knew that. There is no debate about that.
Posted by JuiceTerry
Roond the Scheme
Member since Apr 2013
40868 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 10:59 pm to
I would buy it down half a point and take UF

Richt will preach a sermon about some blind man, his team will thug it up, and Florida will beat them by 7
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
33147 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 11:00 pm to
quote:

You could also say that he could have run for longer touchdowns if his coach called more runs.



Is that what you are saying? Awesome. The point would still remain just the same, so it doesn't matter.
Posted by fibonaccisquared
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
16898 posts
Posted on 7/24/19 at 11:05 pm to
quote:

Richt will preach a sermon about some blind man, his team will thug it up, and Florida will beat them by 7

Hello. This is 2019. When are you typing from?
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