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re: Statistical Game Preview: Louisiana State vs Mississippi State
Posted on 10/15/18 at 2:31 pm to SpreadsheetAg
Posted on 10/15/18 at 2:31 pm to SpreadsheetAg
Just a question out of curiosity, am I overlooking something or do you adjust for strength of teams played? And if not, do you see a difference in your prediction accuracy early in the season vs. later in the season or do the factors like Vegas line that you take into account usually straighten that out? I honestly clicked on this thread expecting a shite slinging fest like every other rant thread but I came away very impressed, nice work 
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Posted on 10/15/18 at 2:32 pm to SpreadsheetAg
Very nice format.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 2:37 pm to SpreadsheetAg
Posted on 10/15/18 at 2:41 pm to Mr Shickadance
quote:
FYI SpreadsheetAg is a legend. Dude's method is pretty spot on
This, he is as accurate as anybody out there.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 5:58 pm to LSUgrad08112
quote:
Just a question out of curiosity, am I overlooking something or do you adjust for strength of teams played? And if not, do you see a difference in your prediction accuracy early in the season vs. later in the season or do the factors like Vegas line that you take into account usually straighten that out?
It's taken into account based on the Sagarin Rating and by accounting for the +/- percentage difference in the team's Average Offense versus their already-played opponents average defense.
For example, for Miss State:
Offensive Yards per game = 430.7 ypg
Opponents Yards per game allowed (i.e. teams they've played average defense) = 368.6
So State has a net +16.8% offensive yards versus there season-opponents-played average defense... It's a little clunky but it helps dial it in a bit.
On the other hand:
LSU defense allows = 340.3 ypg
LSU opponent's offenses average = 434.7
Therefore, LSU holds their opponents to -21.7% of their typical offense.
So if you take the Miss St. +16.8% Off and the LSU -21.7% Def, you can see that LSU will probably hold Miss St. under their offensive average for this game, by roughly 5%... (without other variables included)
However, that is only 1 of about 10 other variables put into the calculation.
Anyhow, the calculation / formula is just a fun thing for me and for some discussion. The real nuts and bolts of the comparison is seeing how Team A Offense stacks up to Team B Defense, side-by-side. My first iterations of this comparison (back in 2009) didn't even have the score predictions - it was purely statistics comparisons.
This post was edited on 10/15/18 at 6:00 pm
Posted on 10/15/18 at 6:08 pm to SpreadsheetAg
Does your formula take into account our coach had his head up his arse the first two conference games?
Posted on 10/15/18 at 6:14 pm to SpreadsheetAg
Best post on rant so far this season 
, thanks for taking time. LSU vs State looks like a good matchup from what your analysis shows.
, thanks for taking time. LSU vs State looks like a good matchup from what your analysis shows.Posted on 10/15/18 at 6:25 pm to SpreadsheetAg
Wow an Aggie who isn't a complete moron. Who knew. This is great man, thanks for doing it! Have an upvote! I'll have to look at your previous works.
This post was edited on 10/15/18 at 6:27 pm
Posted on 10/15/18 at 6:34 pm to CrownTownHalo
quote:
Does your formula take into account our coach had his head up his arse the first two conference games?
Depends on who "our coach" is?
Your profile says Michigan State and your location says North Carolina...
This thread is about LSU & Mississippi State... sooooo.... yeah
Posted on 10/15/18 at 7:34 pm to SpreadsheetAg
You might want to observe the rant for a while. This is NOT texags. They are in 1A compared to the level of trolling and banter that takes place here.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 7:40 pm to SpreadsheetAg
If you had done this for UGA vs LSU it would have concluded that we shouldn't have played the game. But, that's exactly why the teams play the game.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 7:44 pm to TigerFan4040
Nice stats. So LSU wins by 10
Posted on 10/15/18 at 7:44 pm to SpreadsheetAg
Spread, feel free to message me on Texags: boboguitar, if you ever want to build some of your analysis and put it on to a website. Would be cool to go back and see past results.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 7:58 pm to SpreadsheetAg
I would’ve liked to see this for the game against Georgia.
This post was edited on 10/15/18 at 8:05 pm
Posted on 10/15/18 at 8:25 pm to SpreadsheetAg
Great stuff. This neutralizes Texag7.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 8:33 pm to SpreadsheetAg
This is awesome good job!
Things that stood out to me is LSU's red zone TD% vs MSU's red zone TD% defense. If they can keep LSU kicking FGs it may be close.
Doubt MSU scores enough to win though.
Things that stood out to me is LSU's red zone TD% vs MSU's red zone TD% defense. If they can keep LSU kicking FGs it may be close.
Doubt MSU scores enough to win though.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 8:36 pm to SpreadsheetAg
PS somebody out there would probably pay you to do these comparisons for the entire SEC on their website.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 8:57 pm to LegendaryTiger
I think he maybe the first Aggie I have upvoted.
Great work
Great work
Posted on 10/15/18 at 9:03 pm to SpreadsheetAg
You've probably done this team analysis spreadsheet enough that you have a master template that allows you to just plug in the each teams info each week. Would you be interested in sharing the template?
Posted on 10/15/18 at 9:06 pm to Hoosyadaddy
quote:Absolutely
Great stuff.
quote:Absolutely not
This neutralizes Texag7.
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