re: Cruz once again exceeds expectations

quote:

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The race now swings to the East, however, where Cruz is a pariah even amongst neocons. Trump and Kasich should blow the doors off the Cruzmobile.

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Trump should do well in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... but there is room for him to do well there and still fall short of the 1237 delegates he needs to win the nomination.

Trump currently has 758 delegates. Even if he won 80% of all delegates available in NY, CT, DE, MD, PA, RI, WV, and NJ.... that would bring him to just 1040 total. He's still almost 200 short of 1237.

While Trump will get the majority of delegates in the above states, I would be surprised if he claimed 80% of them... probably closer to 70%

Nate Silver (who is very good at these types of projections) currently projects Trump to win Pennsylvania by just 3.8% of the vote.... that's with Kasich claiming over 26% of the vote, which is unlikely. There is a decent chance that Cruz could pull an upset in Pennsylvania.

Silver also projects that Cruz will narrowly win in California.

Every single week it becomes more and more obvious that this race will come down the convention.