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The key to beating Bama: Turnovers
Posted on 10/11/15 at 11:39 pm
Posted on 10/11/15 at 11:39 pm
I know what you're thinking, "duh". However in this case it really IS the biggest stat IMO.
Since 2008 (so excluding the sanctioned riddled roster of 2007) Nick Saban has lost 12 games at Alabama. In 11 of those games he lost the turnover battle, and the one exception was the 2013 Auburn game...possibly the most bizarre game in recent SEC history. Moreover, in 9 of the 12 he lost the turnover battle by 2 or more.
When Saban wins the turnover battle, or when it is even, he is almost unbeatable. In 2012 as well as we played, we still needed a +3 TO margin to escape with a five point win. Without even one of those TOs we probably lose. OM had a +5 margin and was defending a one score lead in the final minute.
The point is this: We probably need at least a +2 TO margin to win, if not more.
Since 2008 (so excluding the sanctioned riddled roster of 2007) Nick Saban has lost 12 games at Alabama. In 11 of those games he lost the turnover battle, and the one exception was the 2013 Auburn game...possibly the most bizarre game in recent SEC history. Moreover, in 9 of the 12 he lost the turnover battle by 2 or more.
When Saban wins the turnover battle, or when it is even, he is almost unbeatable. In 2012 as well as we played, we still needed a +3 TO margin to escape with a five point win. Without even one of those TOs we probably lose. OM had a +5 margin and was defending a one score lead in the final minute.
The point is this: We probably need at least a +2 TO margin to win, if not more.
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Posted on 10/12/15 at 2:25 am to Roger Klarvin
Nah. It's pretty much stopping Bama's run. It's possible, but I won't get my hopes up with our depleted LB position.
Posted on 10/12/15 at 8:06 am to Roger Klarvin
If we can force them to play behind schedule, 2nd and long and 3rd and long, we can pin our ears back and send Myles and Dae Dae and force some turnovers
This post was edited on 10/12/15 at 8:07 am
Posted on 10/12/15 at 9:29 am to ShaneTheLegLechler
That is going to be the issue. We have to stop the run. That is a tall order considering how depleted we are at LB. But if we can stop 4 of their drives for no points we should win it.
Posted on 10/12/15 at 10:48 am to AgBQ00
Our passing game needs to be quicker this week too. I don't have enough faith in our OL to keep Bama's front 7 off of Kyle for 4 seconds for some of these routes to develop. The ball needs to come out fast. We may not get the 80-yard home run bomb, but we can nickel-and-dime them all day with quick high-percentage throws to keep the chains moving.
Posted on 10/12/15 at 11:26 am to Tantal
We will desperately need to stay on schedule against bama. Meaning we can't end up w/ 3rd & 7 or more. We won't have enough time to drop back and attack their defense bc of the d line and linebacker play. On 1st and 2nd down we have to be efficient which would inevitably lead to being efficient on 3rd downs due to shorter yds to go in those instances. Converting 3rd downs and giving our D as much rest as possible will be critical. I think we'll win but damn, it's gunna be a game. The talent on both sides of the ball and the coaching on both sidelines ensures that this will be a game to remember.
& yeah turnover margin is huge. HUGE.
Remember we probably win @ home in 13 if we don't throw a pick on our goal line.
& yeah turnover margin is huge. HUGE.
Remember we probably win @ home in 13 if we don't throw a pick on our goal line.
This post was edited on 10/12/15 at 11:28 am
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