re: Is Big Six Status Permanent?

quote:

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Winning % against other "Big 6" programs since 1933:

60.5%- Alabama (165-106-11)
50.5%- Florida (140-137-6)
49.0%- Auburn (147-153-10)
46.8%- Georgia (120-137-8)
45.9%- Tennessee (101-120-11)
45.5%- LSU (101-120-11)

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So the benchmark appears to be to have a minimum 45% winning percentage against the "Big 6" going back to the formation of the conference.

To put this in perspective, this is where the next three closest programs stand (Texas A&M and Missouri excluded for now):

34.1%- Ole Miss
29.8%- Mississippi State
29.5%- Arkansas

In order to get to 45% winning percentage against the Big 6...

Arkansas would have to win their next 35 games against the "Big 6"

Ole Miss would have to win their next 56 games against the "Big 6"

Mississippi State would have to win their next 95 games against the "Big 6"

I think this puts it all into perspective as to how joining the "Big 6" can't be done because a certain team happened to have one great year. That one great year just erased one of the 30 bad years which currently hinder you from being in the Big 6.


It works in the other direction too. Since Ole Miss is the next closest, with a 34.1% record against the "Big 6" since the SEC was formed, let's actually say as long as you stay above 40% then a current "Big 6" member gets to keep its membership (they'd still be quite a bit ahead of Ole Miss at that point).

LSU would have to go 0-32 in its next 32 games vs. the "Big 6" to fall below 40%

Tennessee would have to go 0-35 in its next 35 games vs. the "Big 6" to fall below 40%

Georgia would have to go 0-46 in its next 46 games vs. the "Big 6" to fall below 40%

Auburn would have to go 0-71 in its next 71 games vs. the "Big 6" to fall below 40%

Florida would have to go 0-75 in its next 75 games vs. the "Big 6" to fall below 40%

Alabama would have to go 0-145 in its next 145 games vs. the "Big 6" to fall below 40%

If a program plays 3.5 games per year against "Big 6" opponents, it would take Alabama 41 years of being winless against the "Big 6" in order to fall down to a point in which its "Big 6" status might be questioned.

While LSU is the closest, it would still take them around 9 seasons of going winless against the "Big 6" in order to have their status questioned.

Even then though, these programs would be at 40% against the "Big 6" since the SEC was formed... the next closest (Ole Miss) would still be way down at 34.1%. So we're just talking the point of having the status even questioned.

So the point is that if Ole Miss has a great year and wins the SEC, it does not improve their status.

Likewise, if Tennessee struggles and goes 4-31 against the "Big 6" (as they have since 2006), their status is still safe.

As bad as the Vols have been in the last decade, they'd have to fair even worse in the next decade ahead for their status to begin being questioned. They've won 4 of their last 35 games vs. the "Big 6". They'd have to win zero of their next 35 games in order to fall below 40% against the "Big 6" since 1933.

So again, this membership is not something that is reviewed every year. If Arky, A&M, or Ole Miss can put together a 10-15 year period of sustainted success and multiple championships, then the conversation might be able to be started. But at this point, we're no where close.