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Falcons: NFL Draft Thread
Posted on 4/16/15 at 1:01 pm
Posted on 4/16/15 at 1:01 pm
We're officially two weeks from the NFL Draft and thought it was time for everyone to start tossing out their analysis and mocks.
So who will our Falcons take at #8? Well I did an analysis of the last ten drafts and found some interesting patterns which might help figure it out.
Here's the last 10 years of top-8 draft picks:
2014:
1 Houston Texans Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina
2 St. Louis Rams Greg Robinson T Auburn
3 Jacksonville Jaguars Blake Bortles QB Central Florida
4 Buffalo Bills Sammy Watkins WR Clemson
5 Oakland Raiders Khalil Mack OLB Buffalo
6 Atlanta Falcons Jake Matthews T Texas A&M
7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike Evans WR Texas A&M
8 Cleveland Browns Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State
2013:
1 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan
2 Jacksonville Jaguars Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M
3 Miami Dolphins Dion Jordan DE Oregon
4 Philadelphia Eagles Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma
5 Detroit Lions Ezekiel Ansah DE Brigham Young
6 Cleveland Browns Barkevious Mingo OLB LSU
7 Arizona Cardinals Jonathan Cooper OG North Carolina
8 St. Louis Rams Tavon Austin WR West Virginia
2012:
1 Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck QB Stanford
2 Washington Redskins Robert Griffin QB Baylor
3 Cleveland Browns Trent Richardson RB Alabama
4 Minnesota Vikings Matt Kalil T USC
5 Jacksonville Jaguars Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
6 Dallas Cowboys Morris Claiborne CB LSU
7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mark Barron DB Alabama
8 Miami Dolphins Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M
2011:
1 Carolina Panthers Cam Newton QB Auburn
2 Denver Broncos Von Miller LB Texas A&M
3 Buffalo Bills Marcell Dareus DT Alabama
4 Cincinnati Bengals A.J. Green WR Georgia
5 Arizona Cardinals Patrick Peterson DB LSU
6 Atlanta Falcons Julio Jones WR Alabama
7 San Francisco 49ers Aldon Smith LB Missouri
8 Tennessee Titans Jake Locker QB Washington
2010:
1 St. Louis Rams Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma
2 Detroit Lions Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska
3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma
4 Washington Redskins Trent Williams T Oklahoma
5 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Berry SS Tennessee
6 Seattle Seahawks Russell Okung T Oklahoma State
7 Cleveland Browns Joe Haden CB Florida
8 Oakland Raiders Rolando McClain MLB Alabama
2009:
1 Detroit Lions Matthew Stafford QB Georgia
2 St. Louis Rams Jason Smith T Baylor
3 Kansas City Chiefs Tyson Jackson DE Louisiana State
4 Seattle Seahawks Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest
5 New York Jets Mark Sanchez QB USC
6 Cincinnati Bengals Andre Smith T Alabama
7 Oakland Raiders Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland
8 Jacksonville Jaguars Eugene Monroe T Virginia
2008:
1 Miami Dolphins Jake Long T Michigan
2 St. Louis Rams Chris Long DE Virginia
3 Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan QB Boston College
4 Oakland Raiders Darren McFadden RB Arkansas
5 Kansas City Chiefs Glenn Dorsey DT Louisiana State
6 New York Jets Vernon Gholston LB Ohio State
7 New Orleans Saints Sedrick Ellis DT USC
8 Jacksonville Jaguars Derrick Harvey DE Florida
2007:
1 Oakland Raiders JaMarcus Russell QB Louisiana State
2 Detroit Lions Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech
3 Cleveland Browns Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin
4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gaines Adams DE Clemson
5 Arizona Cardinals Levi Brown OT Penn State
6 Washington Redskins LaRon Landry SS Louisiana State
7 Minnesota Vikings Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma
8 Atlanta Falcons Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas
2006:
1 Houston Texans Mario Williams DE North Carolina State
2 New Orleans Saints Reggie Bush RB USC
3 Tennessee Titans Vince Young QB Texas
4 New York Jets D'Brickashaw Ferguson T Virginia
5 Green Bay Packers A.J. Hawk OLB Ohio State
6 San Francisco 49ers Vernon Davis TE Maryland
7 Oakland Raiders Michael Huff SS Texas
8 Buffalo Bills Donte Whitner SS Ohio State
2005:
1 San Francisco 49ers Alex Smith QB Utah
2 Miami Dolphins Ronnie Brown RB Auburn
3 Cleveland Browns Braylon Edwards WR Michigan
4 Chicago Bears Cedric Benson RB Texas
5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cadillac Williams RB Auburn
6 Tennessee Titans Pacman Jones CB West Virginia
7 Minnesota Vikings Troy Williamson WR South Carolina
8 Arizona Cardinals Antrel Rolle DB Miami (Fla.)
Looking at pass rushers:
Zero DE/OLB taken: 3 - 2012, 2010, 2005
One DE/OLB taken: 1 - 2009
Two DE/OLB taken: 6 - 2014, 2013, 2011, 2008, 2007, 2006
Three or more DE/OLB taken: 0
So as you can see, in the last 10 years, not one time has there been more than 2 pass rushers taken in the first 8 picks.
Other than 2011 and 2005, virtually every year has had at least 2 OT's drafted in top 8. 2011 still only had 2 pass rushers because it was overloaded with offensive skill position players and a DT and DB. 2005 had 6 offensive skill position players and 2 DB's, and zero OL or DE/OLB's, which is crazy.
Other than 2013 and 2010, there has been no less than 2 offensive skill position players taken in the top 8. And in several there were 3, 4, and even 6 offensive skill position players taken. 2013 was overloaded with OT's and 2010 was overloaded with DB's.
7 of the 10 years at least one DB was taken in the top 8, and in fact, 4 of those 7 took 2 DB's.
With these stats, and taking in to consideration who has signed whom in free agency this off-season, it's a pretty safe bet that the top 8 will consist of this mix:
1-2 QB's, 1-2 WR's, 1-2 DE/OLB's, 1-2 DT's, 1-2 OL's, and 1-2 DB's.
I really don't see a RB getting taken in the top-8 anymore. There's only been 1 taken in the last 6 years and that was Trent Richardson, which hasn't worked out too well. Darren McFadden was taken 7 years ago and that hasn't worked out too well either.
So who will our Falcons take at #8? Well I did an analysis of the last ten drafts and found some interesting patterns which might help figure it out.
Here's the last 10 years of top-8 draft picks:
2014:
1 Houston Texans Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina
2 St. Louis Rams Greg Robinson T Auburn
3 Jacksonville Jaguars Blake Bortles QB Central Florida
4 Buffalo Bills Sammy Watkins WR Clemson
5 Oakland Raiders Khalil Mack OLB Buffalo
6 Atlanta Falcons Jake Matthews T Texas A&M
7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike Evans WR Texas A&M
8 Cleveland Browns Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State
2013:
1 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan
2 Jacksonville Jaguars Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M
3 Miami Dolphins Dion Jordan DE Oregon
4 Philadelphia Eagles Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma
5 Detroit Lions Ezekiel Ansah DE Brigham Young
6 Cleveland Browns Barkevious Mingo OLB LSU
7 Arizona Cardinals Jonathan Cooper OG North Carolina
8 St. Louis Rams Tavon Austin WR West Virginia
2012:
1 Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck QB Stanford
2 Washington Redskins Robert Griffin QB Baylor
3 Cleveland Browns Trent Richardson RB Alabama
4 Minnesota Vikings Matt Kalil T USC
5 Jacksonville Jaguars Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
6 Dallas Cowboys Morris Claiborne CB LSU
7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mark Barron DB Alabama
8 Miami Dolphins Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M
2011:
1 Carolina Panthers Cam Newton QB Auburn
2 Denver Broncos Von Miller LB Texas A&M
3 Buffalo Bills Marcell Dareus DT Alabama
4 Cincinnati Bengals A.J. Green WR Georgia
5 Arizona Cardinals Patrick Peterson DB LSU
6 Atlanta Falcons Julio Jones WR Alabama
7 San Francisco 49ers Aldon Smith LB Missouri
8 Tennessee Titans Jake Locker QB Washington
2010:
1 St. Louis Rams Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma
2 Detroit Lions Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska
3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma
4 Washington Redskins Trent Williams T Oklahoma
5 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Berry SS Tennessee
6 Seattle Seahawks Russell Okung T Oklahoma State
7 Cleveland Browns Joe Haden CB Florida
8 Oakland Raiders Rolando McClain MLB Alabama
2009:
1 Detroit Lions Matthew Stafford QB Georgia
2 St. Louis Rams Jason Smith T Baylor
3 Kansas City Chiefs Tyson Jackson DE Louisiana State
4 Seattle Seahawks Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest
5 New York Jets Mark Sanchez QB USC
6 Cincinnati Bengals Andre Smith T Alabama
7 Oakland Raiders Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland
8 Jacksonville Jaguars Eugene Monroe T Virginia
2008:
1 Miami Dolphins Jake Long T Michigan
2 St. Louis Rams Chris Long DE Virginia
3 Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan QB Boston College
4 Oakland Raiders Darren McFadden RB Arkansas
5 Kansas City Chiefs Glenn Dorsey DT Louisiana State
6 New York Jets Vernon Gholston LB Ohio State
7 New Orleans Saints Sedrick Ellis DT USC
8 Jacksonville Jaguars Derrick Harvey DE Florida
2007:
1 Oakland Raiders JaMarcus Russell QB Louisiana State
2 Detroit Lions Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech
3 Cleveland Browns Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin
4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gaines Adams DE Clemson
5 Arizona Cardinals Levi Brown OT Penn State
6 Washington Redskins LaRon Landry SS Louisiana State
7 Minnesota Vikings Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma
8 Atlanta Falcons Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas
2006:
1 Houston Texans Mario Williams DE North Carolina State
2 New Orleans Saints Reggie Bush RB USC
3 Tennessee Titans Vince Young QB Texas
4 New York Jets D'Brickashaw Ferguson T Virginia
5 Green Bay Packers A.J. Hawk OLB Ohio State
6 San Francisco 49ers Vernon Davis TE Maryland
7 Oakland Raiders Michael Huff SS Texas
8 Buffalo Bills Donte Whitner SS Ohio State
2005:
1 San Francisco 49ers Alex Smith QB Utah
2 Miami Dolphins Ronnie Brown RB Auburn
3 Cleveland Browns Braylon Edwards WR Michigan
4 Chicago Bears Cedric Benson RB Texas
5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cadillac Williams RB Auburn
6 Tennessee Titans Pacman Jones CB West Virginia
7 Minnesota Vikings Troy Williamson WR South Carolina
8 Arizona Cardinals Antrel Rolle DB Miami (Fla.)
Looking at pass rushers:
Zero DE/OLB taken: 3 - 2012, 2010, 2005
One DE/OLB taken: 1 - 2009
Two DE/OLB taken: 6 - 2014, 2013, 2011, 2008, 2007, 2006
Three or more DE/OLB taken: 0
So as you can see, in the last 10 years, not one time has there been more than 2 pass rushers taken in the first 8 picks.
Other than 2011 and 2005, virtually every year has had at least 2 OT's drafted in top 8. 2011 still only had 2 pass rushers because it was overloaded with offensive skill position players and a DT and DB. 2005 had 6 offensive skill position players and 2 DB's, and zero OL or DE/OLB's, which is crazy.
Other than 2013 and 2010, there has been no less than 2 offensive skill position players taken in the top 8. And in several there were 3, 4, and even 6 offensive skill position players taken. 2013 was overloaded with OT's and 2010 was overloaded with DB's.
7 of the 10 years at least one DB was taken in the top 8, and in fact, 4 of those 7 took 2 DB's.
With these stats, and taking in to consideration who has signed whom in free agency this off-season, it's a pretty safe bet that the top 8 will consist of this mix:
1-2 QB's, 1-2 WR's, 1-2 DE/OLB's, 1-2 DT's, 1-2 OL's, and 1-2 DB's.
I really don't see a RB getting taken in the top-8 anymore. There's only been 1 taken in the last 6 years and that was Trent Richardson, which hasn't worked out too well. Darren McFadden was taken 7 years ago and that hasn't worked out too well either.
This post was edited on 4/16/15 at 1:06 pm
4
Posted on 4/16/15 at 1:02 pm to BeefDawg
So how about the Falcon's needs?
A couple big factors to take into consideration is that Quinn has moved us back to a 4-3 base defense and Shannahan runs a zone-blocking scheme for his OL's, which is a big change for us. So lets examine position by position and assess weaknesses.
Pass Rush:
DE: O'Brien Schofield, Adrian Clayborn, Biermann, Matthews, Maponga, and Goodman
OLB: Brooks Reed, Justin Durant, Shembo, Stupar
- I'd call DE a very weak position and a top priority. OLB is pretty solid with the Reed and Durant pickups. Reed is best friend's with JJ Watt and has been training with him for two straight seasons. Hopefully it has helped him. And Durant was on his way to a probowl season at OLB last year until he got injured. He is a good replacement for Spoon. Adrian Clayborn is apparently a replacement for Osi. Who knows what he'll bring other than DE depth.
DT: Soliai, Babineaux, Jackson, Hageman
- Soliai is a pure 3-4 NT, but we're stuck with his big contract for a while. He played like shite last year and so did Tyson Jackson. Babs was his usual inconsistent self, really good at some times and really average at others. And Hageman came on strong in the last 3 games. He's the future at DT for us and he's going to be a good one. The guy might have a 2-cent head, but he's an athletic freak of nature and will be good once he gets it. We can live for a while with this 4-man rotation inside though.
ILB: Worrilow, Bartu, Bradford, and Spruill
- Another weak position. Worrilow gets a lot of tackles, but he actually graded out horrible by PFF. And Bartu kept moving from OLB to ILB and back and forth all season. Spruill is coming off an ACL tear and Bradford is simply depth. They may move Shembo inside to help here but not sure about that.
Secondary:
CB: Trufant, Alford, Mabin, Allen, and Bishop.
- There's also mention that Quinn wants to move Dez Southward to CB and make Alford the Nickel. This would be fine by me since Southward is tall and can run a 4.3x 40. Maybe Quinn wants to turn him into a Richard Sherman type CB. Bishop is 6'1 210 also and can run, so he has potential as well. We're set at CB IMO.
SS: Moore, Ishmael
- And that's it. And Willie Mo is always injured. Ishmael stepped up and played great here last year though too.
FS: Godfrey, Southward
- For some reason, we didn't re-sign Lowery even though he was by far our best safety. This is obviously a priority position of need. Especially if Southward might move to CB.
Offensive Line: Matthews, Baker, Schraeder, Stone, Hawley, Asamoah, Holmes, Konz, Person, Gunn
- Matthews is obviously our LT and Schraeder actually graded out as a top-5 RT last year. Asamoah is the RG and Stone graded out strong at C when Hawley went down. So that leaves Baker, Konz, Person, Gunn, and Holmes as depth, which is scary. Baker I believe might be released after June 1st. If not, he may fill the void at LG where Blalock use to be. But if that's not the case, then I suspect OG is a high priority too. We need to lock down LG to complete this line.
- Good news on OL, however, is that virtually all of our guys have played in a zone-blocking system before. In fact, most of them did in college and know it quite well.
RB: Freeman and Smith
- That's it. Seriously, that's our RB's. And Smith is coming off a broken leg. If this doesn't scream "need" then I don't know what does. Now this said, with the switch to a zone-blocking scheme, this may not necessarily be something we draft in our first 4 picks. Look what Shannahan did with Alfred Morris. But, this is absolutely a priority. We may even draft two RB's or look for another one in FA at some point.
WR: Julio, Roddy, Hester, Hankerson, Weems, Martino, and Reedy
- They picked up Hankerson to replace Davis, and they are really high on Reedy to replace Douglas in the slot. We're pretty set at WR, especially after who we picked up in FA at TE. Our receiving corps looks good. WR isn't a priority, but we may pick up one in the late rounds.
TE: Toilolo, Moeaki, and Tamme
- We're set here for a while. Clearly we don't plan to draft a TE now.
So, with all this, here is what appears to be our needs in order of importance:
RB, DE, OG, S, ILB, DT, WR
No way though do we draft a RB at #8 when there's four pass rushers with top-10 draft grades. Especially not since the trend has been to take a RB in mid rounds find success. Which is exactly what Shannahan has already proven he can do.
As a result, I am very confident we go pass rusher at #8, with a particular eye on Vic Beasley. Williams is more a 4-3 DT or 3-4 DE and will certainly be gone, but I wouldn't necessarily classify him as a pass rusher. Fowler, who is a traditional 4-3 DE, will likely be gone too. But as my earlier analysis shows, not once in the past 10 years have more than two pass rushers been taken in the top-8. And if this holds true again, then Vic Beasley should still be there for us at #8.
A couple big factors to take into consideration is that Quinn has moved us back to a 4-3 base defense and Shannahan runs a zone-blocking scheme for his OL's, which is a big change for us. So lets examine position by position and assess weaknesses.
Pass Rush:
DE: O'Brien Schofield, Adrian Clayborn, Biermann, Matthews, Maponga, and Goodman
OLB: Brooks Reed, Justin Durant, Shembo, Stupar
- I'd call DE a very weak position and a top priority. OLB is pretty solid with the Reed and Durant pickups. Reed is best friend's with JJ Watt and has been training with him for two straight seasons. Hopefully it has helped him. And Durant was on his way to a probowl season at OLB last year until he got injured. He is a good replacement for Spoon. Adrian Clayborn is apparently a replacement for Osi. Who knows what he'll bring other than DE depth.
DT: Soliai, Babineaux, Jackson, Hageman
- Soliai is a pure 3-4 NT, but we're stuck with his big contract for a while. He played like shite last year and so did Tyson Jackson. Babs was his usual inconsistent self, really good at some times and really average at others. And Hageman came on strong in the last 3 games. He's the future at DT for us and he's going to be a good one. The guy might have a 2-cent head, but he's an athletic freak of nature and will be good once he gets it. We can live for a while with this 4-man rotation inside though.
ILB: Worrilow, Bartu, Bradford, and Spruill
- Another weak position. Worrilow gets a lot of tackles, but he actually graded out horrible by PFF. And Bartu kept moving from OLB to ILB and back and forth all season. Spruill is coming off an ACL tear and Bradford is simply depth. They may move Shembo inside to help here but not sure about that.
Secondary:
CB: Trufant, Alford, Mabin, Allen, and Bishop.
- There's also mention that Quinn wants to move Dez Southward to CB and make Alford the Nickel. This would be fine by me since Southward is tall and can run a 4.3x 40. Maybe Quinn wants to turn him into a Richard Sherman type CB. Bishop is 6'1 210 also and can run, so he has potential as well. We're set at CB IMO.
SS: Moore, Ishmael
- And that's it. And Willie Mo is always injured. Ishmael stepped up and played great here last year though too.
FS: Godfrey, Southward
- For some reason, we didn't re-sign Lowery even though he was by far our best safety. This is obviously a priority position of need. Especially if Southward might move to CB.
Offensive Line: Matthews, Baker, Schraeder, Stone, Hawley, Asamoah, Holmes, Konz, Person, Gunn
- Matthews is obviously our LT and Schraeder actually graded out as a top-5 RT last year. Asamoah is the RG and Stone graded out strong at C when Hawley went down. So that leaves Baker, Konz, Person, Gunn, and Holmes as depth, which is scary. Baker I believe might be released after June 1st. If not, he may fill the void at LG where Blalock use to be. But if that's not the case, then I suspect OG is a high priority too. We need to lock down LG to complete this line.
- Good news on OL, however, is that virtually all of our guys have played in a zone-blocking system before. In fact, most of them did in college and know it quite well.
RB: Freeman and Smith
- That's it. Seriously, that's our RB's. And Smith is coming off a broken leg. If this doesn't scream "need" then I don't know what does. Now this said, with the switch to a zone-blocking scheme, this may not necessarily be something we draft in our first 4 picks. Look what Shannahan did with Alfred Morris. But, this is absolutely a priority. We may even draft two RB's or look for another one in FA at some point.
WR: Julio, Roddy, Hester, Hankerson, Weems, Martino, and Reedy
- They picked up Hankerson to replace Davis, and they are really high on Reedy to replace Douglas in the slot. We're pretty set at WR, especially after who we picked up in FA at TE. Our receiving corps looks good. WR isn't a priority, but we may pick up one in the late rounds.
TE: Toilolo, Moeaki, and Tamme
- We're set here for a while. Clearly we don't plan to draft a TE now.
So, with all this, here is what appears to be our needs in order of importance:
RB, DE, OG, S, ILB, DT, WR
No way though do we draft a RB at #8 when there's four pass rushers with top-10 draft grades. Especially not since the trend has been to take a RB in mid rounds find success. Which is exactly what Shannahan has already proven he can do.
As a result, I am very confident we go pass rusher at #8, with a particular eye on Vic Beasley. Williams is more a 4-3 DT or 3-4 DE and will certainly be gone, but I wouldn't necessarily classify him as a pass rusher. Fowler, who is a traditional 4-3 DE, will likely be gone too. But as my earlier analysis shows, not once in the past 10 years have more than two pass rushers been taken in the top-8. And if this holds true again, then Vic Beasley should still be there for us at #8.
This post was edited on 4/16/15 at 1:11 pm
Posted on 4/16/15 at 1:45 pm to BeefDawg
Nice Work 
Definitely need a pass rusher first round. I like Beasley there. Georgia kid, would probably love to play for ATL. I like Randy Gregory too although the front office might not since he got caught smoking weed. Dante Fowler if he's there is a no brainer but I don't think he falls to us.
Hopefully Dimitroff and Co can prove that they aren't completely inept at drafting this year.
Definitely need a pass rusher first round. I like Beasley there. Georgia kid, would probably love to play for ATL. I like Randy Gregory too although the front office might not since he got caught smoking weed. Dante Fowler if he's there is a no brainer but I don't think he falls to us.
Hopefully Dimitroff and Co can prove that they aren't completely inept at drafting this year.
Posted on 4/16/15 at 2:48 pm to BeefDawg
Good lord - now that is an informative post.
I do think this year will be skewed towards pass rushers though. The Falcons would do well to grab one.
I do think this year will be skewed towards pass rushers though. The Falcons would do well to grab one.
Posted on 4/16/15 at 2:54 pm to BeefDawg
The 2011 Draft is just filthy. Not shown:
9) Tyron Smith
11) JJ Watt
14) Robert Quinn
15) Mike Pouncey
Round 2: Randall Cobb
Round 3: Justin Houston, DeMarco Murray
Round 4: Julius Thomas
Round 5: Richard Sherman
9) Tyron Smith
11) JJ Watt
14) Robert Quinn
15) Mike Pouncey
Round 2: Randall Cobb
Round 3: Justin Houston, DeMarco Murray
Round 4: Julius Thomas
Round 5: Richard Sherman
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