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SEC NCAA Tourney watch
Posted on 2/23/26 at 11:02 am
Posted on 2/23/26 at 11:02 am
UF, UA, Ark, UT, and Vandy are all in, just fighting for seeding at the point
UK (27)
UGA (36)
Missouri (37)
A&M (40)
Auburn (42)
Texas (43)
(LSU, USC, Ole Miss, State all out)
The teams with work to do are listed with their WAB ranking, a ranking that very closely followed their overall seed last year. A team in the top 40 is very likely to be in.
I think 5 of the 6 bubble teams in the SEC get in, but one of us is going to finish weak weak and get left out.
updated for current WAB rankings
UK (27)
UGA (36)
Missouri (37)
A&M (40)
Auburn (42)
Texas (43)
(LSU, USC, Ole Miss, State all out)
The teams with work to do are listed with their WAB ranking, a ranking that very closely followed their overall seed last year. A team in the top 40 is very likely to be in.
I think 5 of the 6 bubble teams in the SEC get in, but one of us is going to finish weak weak and get left out.
updated for current WAB rankings
This post was edited on 2/25/26 at 4:04 pm
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Posted on 2/23/26 at 11:29 am to Hugh McElroy
Missouri has skyrocketed in NET the last two weeks. They have a very real shot of finishing 3-1. If so they would finish the regular season 21-10, 11-7 in the SEC. That would likely get them in.
Kentucky is on thin ice. They are very likely to finish 1-3. That would put them at 18-13, 9-9 in the SEC. It would be very possible they’d miss the tourney unless they make a SEC tourney run.
Auburn needs to go 3-1 to finish the year. That would put them at 18-13, 9-9 in the SEC. Regardless of strength of schedule I can’t see an SEC team with a losing conference record and only 17 total regular season wins making it.
Kentucky is on thin ice. They are very likely to finish 1-3. That would put them at 18-13, 9-9 in the SEC. It would be very possible they’d miss the tourney unless they make a SEC tourney run.
Auburn needs to go 3-1 to finish the year. That would put them at 18-13, 9-9 in the SEC. Regardless of strength of schedule I can’t see an SEC team with a losing conference record and only 17 total regular season wins making it.
This post was edited on 2/23/26 at 11:30 am
Posted on 2/23/26 at 1:41 pm to captdalton
quote:
Auburn needs to go 3-1 to finish the year. That would put them at 18-13, 9-9 in the SEC. Regardless of strength of schedule I can’t see an SEC team with a losing conference record and only 17 total regular season wins making it.
If we can't beat OU, Ole Miss, and LSU to finish out the year we don't deserve to be in anyway.
Even if we do get in, we are going to get bounced in either game 1 or 2.
Posted on 2/23/26 at 2:09 pm to Hugh McElroy
A&M
Texas
Missouri
Auburn
This is the order in which things will likely fall. As of now all are likely in, but just barely for Missouri and auburn
Missouri and auburn are interchangeable at this point but personally I’m giving the edge to missouri.
Texas
Missouri
Auburn
This is the order in which things will likely fall. As of now all are likely in, but just barely for Missouri and auburn
Missouri and auburn are interchangeable at this point but personally I’m giving the edge to missouri.
Posted on 2/23/26 at 2:10 pm to captdalton
Kentucky is still ahead of A&M and Georgia right now. They should be good.
Posted on 2/23/26 at 2:12 pm to justaniceguy
Lucky for the mid tier sec teams, there really aren’t a lot of mid majors or teams in general that deserve to be in the tourney over them.
TCU, New Mexico, Santa Clara, USC, San Diego state, Ohio state, are the competition.
Right now, the former 3 are out of the tourney.
TCU, New Mexico, Santa Clara, USC, San Diego state, Ohio state, are the competition.
Right now, the former 3 are out of the tourney.
Posted on 2/23/26 at 2:28 pm to captdalton
Conference record is about dead last in anything the committee considers. They're looking at the Q1 and Q2 wins and bad losses and then metrics like WAB, NET etc.
Kentucky needs to beat South Carolina and that's about all to just get in the field. The Q1 A wins at Tennessee, at Arky and N St Johns and what would still be good NET and WAB numbers will have them well above the cutoff line teams.
It's been almost uncanny how the other 5 SEC bubble teams have done exactly enough to stay just on the right side of bubble the past 2 weeks.
Georgia may be the only one that's given themselves any breathing room.
None are in desperate shape as far as having to beat a top team to get in though. It will come down to how many can avoid being upset by one of the bottom five.
Kentucky needs to beat South Carolina and that's about all to just get in the field. The Q1 A wins at Tennessee, at Arky and N St Johns and what would still be good NET and WAB numbers will have them well above the cutoff line teams.
It's been almost uncanny how the other 5 SEC bubble teams have done exactly enough to stay just on the right side of bubble the past 2 weeks.
Georgia may be the only one that's given themselves any breathing room.
None are in desperate shape as far as having to beat a top team to get in though. It will come down to how many can avoid being upset by one of the bottom five.
This post was edited on 2/23/26 at 3:16 pm
Posted on 2/23/26 at 5:32 pm to wm72
quote:
Kentucky needs to beat South Carolina and that's about all to just get in the field. The Q1 A wins at Tennessee, at Arky and N St Johns and what would still be good NET and WAB numbers will have them well above the cutoff line teams.
Kentucky just beating USCe will leave them on thin ice. Their NET is currently 29. Losing 3 of their last four - even with 3 Q1 games - will drop their net into the 30s. And it would mean that they lost 6 of their last 7 regular season games. The committee does look at how teams are trending. Kentucky has 5 Q1 wins. @USCe will be a quad 2 game. The other three left will be Q1. They really need to win one of those. If not they will finish 5-11 against Q1 teams and 4-2 against Q2 teams. Short of a run in the SEC tournament, selection Sunday would be very nerve racking for Kentucky if it plays out like that.
Posted on 2/23/26 at 6:25 pm to captdalton
quote:
Kentucky just beating USCe will leave them on thin ice.
I get your point that it would be a very ugly finish and most Kentucky fans would probably just want the season to be over. However, there really wouldn't be a bad loss in the bunch.
They'd end up:
NET 35
5 Q1 wins (3 of those importantly in Q1-A)
9-13 in Q1/2 games
Anything is possible but no team to date has ever been left out with anywhere near those type combined numbers.
Posted on 2/25/26 at 7:02 am to Hugh McElroy
Updated SEC bubble teams:
UK
UGA
Texas A&M
Missouri
Texas
UK
UGA
Texas A&M
Missouri
Texas
Posted on 2/25/26 at 7:09 am to captdalton
You really think Auburn’s loss eliminates them, or are you just trolling?
Posted on 2/25/26 at 7:12 am to captdalton
quote:
Auburn needs to finish the year
Fify
Posted on 2/25/26 at 7:24 am to Hugh McElroy
Both. Auburn is 1-6 in their last seven games. That includes losses to Oklahoma (71) and Mississippi State (96).
They likely finish 2-1. But the two wins will be one Q2 win and one Q3 win. If they finish as expected they will go into the SEC tournament with a 17-14 record; 5-12 in Q1 games and 3-2 in Q2 games, and a net around 40.
I don’t think that will get them into the NCAA tourney.
They were being projected as a 10th seed before they lost to Oklahoma. It will be interesting to see if they are still included when they update it.
They likely finish 2-1. But the two wins will be one Q2 win and one Q3 win. If they finish as expected they will go into the SEC tournament with a 17-14 record; 5-12 in Q1 games and 3-2 in Q2 games, and a net around 40.
I don’t think that will get them into the NCAA tourney.
They were being projected as a 10th seed before they lost to Oklahoma. It will be interesting to see if they are still included when they update it.
Posted on 2/25/26 at 7:51 am to Hugh McElroy
Except for Florida, I don’t see any SEC teams doing much in the tournament this year. The conference is full of just ok teams.
Posted on 2/25/26 at 8:53 am to captdalton
Of this list, Mizzou has won at Kentucky and A&M. With the win against UTk last night, we should be in with one more SEC win(@MSU, @OU, ARKY), which would make us 10-8 minimum with some very good wins amd no bad losses.
Posted on 2/25/26 at 8:57 am to Hugh McElroy
After beating Tenner last night, Mizzou is up to 37 in WAB, with 5 Q1s, including 3 Q1A wins. Also beat fellow bubble teams Auburn, Kentucky, and A&M head up.
Posted on 2/25/26 at 9:47 am to Hugh McElroy
From ESPN’s latest bubble watch just released.
quote:
But those mounting losses do matter, and teams most similar to Auburn have tended to miss out on an at-large bid more often than not. Whatever happens, they will be an interesting litmus test for what the committee values.
Posted on 2/25/26 at 9:54 am to Hugh McElroy
quote:
Auburn (39)
Posted on 2/25/26 at 10:26 am to justaniceguy
quote:
Texas
Missouri
Auburn
This is the order in which things will likely fall. As of now all are likely in, but just barely for Missouri and auburn
Missouri and auburn are interchangeable at this point but personally I’m giving the edge to missouri.
Did you know Mizzou beat Texas A&M and has a great cance to go 2-1 inches next 3 games. That will get Missouri in.
Posted on 2/25/26 at 1:10 pm to Mizzoustance
I see no reason why Mizzou should be left out if they hit 20 wins or greater. They are good enough to merit a seeding over many teams being talked above them and have a solid rotation that Gates runs. When they are on, they’re pretty damned good and Mitchell is NBA good.
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