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SEC NCAA Tourney watch
Posted on 2/23/26 at 11:02 am
Posted on 2/23/26 at 11:02 am
UF, UA, Ark, UT, and Vandy are all in, just fighting for seeding at the point
UK (27)
UGA (36)
Auburn (39)
A&M (40)
Mizzou (42)
Texas (44)
(LSU, USC, Ole Miss, State all out)
The teams with work to do are listed with their WAB ranking, a ranking that very closely followed their overall seed last year. A team in the top 40 is very likely to be in.
I think 5 of the 6 bubble teams in the SEC get in, but one of us is going to finish weak weak and get left out.
UK (27)
UGA (36)
Auburn (39)
A&M (40)
Mizzou (42)
Texas (44)
(LSU, USC, Ole Miss, State all out)
The teams with work to do are listed with their WAB ranking, a ranking that very closely followed their overall seed last year. A team in the top 40 is very likely to be in.
I think 5 of the 6 bubble teams in the SEC get in, but one of us is going to finish weak weak and get left out.
2
Posted on 2/23/26 at 11:29 am to Hugh McElroy
Missouri has skyrocketed in NET the last two weeks. They have a very real shot of finishing 3-1. If so they would finish the regular season 21-10, 11-7 in the SEC. That would likely get them in.
Kentucky is on thin ice. They are very likely to finish 1-3. That would put them at 18-13, 9-9 in the SEC. It would be very possible they’d miss the tourney unless they make a SEC tourney run.
Auburn needs to go 3-1 to finish the year. That would put them at 18-13, 9-9 in the SEC. Regardless of strength of schedule I can’t see an SEC team with a losing conference record and only 17 total regular season wins making it.
Kentucky is on thin ice. They are very likely to finish 1-3. That would put them at 18-13, 9-9 in the SEC. It would be very possible they’d miss the tourney unless they make a SEC tourney run.
Auburn needs to go 3-1 to finish the year. That would put them at 18-13, 9-9 in the SEC. Regardless of strength of schedule I can’t see an SEC team with a losing conference record and only 17 total regular season wins making it.
This post was edited on 2/23/26 at 11:30 am
Posted on 2/23/26 at 1:41 pm to captdalton
quote:
Auburn needs to go 3-1 to finish the year. That would put them at 18-13, 9-9 in the SEC. Regardless of strength of schedule I can’t see an SEC team with a losing conference record and only 17 total regular season wins making it.
If we can't beat OU, Ole Miss, and LSU to finish out the year we don't deserve to be in anyway.
Even if we do get in, we are going to get bounced in either game 1 or 2.
Posted on 2/23/26 at 2:09 pm to Hugh McElroy
A&M
Texas
Missouri
Auburn
This is the order in which things will likely fall. As of now all are likely in, but just barely for Missouri and auburn
Missouri and auburn are interchangeable at this point but personally I’m giving the edge to missouri.
Texas
Missouri
Auburn
This is the order in which things will likely fall. As of now all are likely in, but just barely for Missouri and auburn
Missouri and auburn are interchangeable at this point but personally I’m giving the edge to missouri.
Posted on 2/23/26 at 2:10 pm to captdalton
Kentucky is still ahead of A&M and Georgia right now. They should be good.
Posted on 2/23/26 at 2:12 pm to justaniceguy
Lucky for the mid tier sec teams, there really aren’t a lot of mid majors or teams in general that deserve to be in the tourney over them.
TCU, New Mexico, Santa Clara, USC, San Diego state, Ohio state, are the competition.
Right now, the former 3 are out of the tourney.
TCU, New Mexico, Santa Clara, USC, San Diego state, Ohio state, are the competition.
Right now, the former 3 are out of the tourney.
Posted on 2/23/26 at 2:28 pm to captdalton
Conference record is about dead last in anything the committee considers. They're looking at the Q1 and Q2 wins and bad losses and then metrics like WAB, NET etc.
Kentucky needs to beat South Carolina and that's about all to just get in the field. The Q1 A wins at Tennessee, at Arky and N St Johns and what would still be good NET and WAB numbers will have them well above the cutoff line teams.
It's been almost uncanny how the other 5 SEC bubble teams have done exactly enough to stay just on the right side of bubble the past 2 weeks.
Georgia may be the only one that's given themselves any breathing room.
None are in desperate shape as far as having to beat a top team to get in though. It will come down to how many can avoid being upset by one of the bottom five.
Kentucky needs to beat South Carolina and that's about all to just get in the field. The Q1 A wins at Tennessee, at Arky and N St Johns and what would still be good NET and WAB numbers will have them well above the cutoff line teams.
It's been almost uncanny how the other 5 SEC bubble teams have done exactly enough to stay just on the right side of bubble the past 2 weeks.
Georgia may be the only one that's given themselves any breathing room.
None are in desperate shape as far as having to beat a top team to get in though. It will come down to how many can avoid being upset by one of the bottom five.
This post was edited on 2/23/26 at 3:16 pm
Posted on 2/23/26 at 5:32 pm to wm72
quote:
Kentucky needs to beat South Carolina and that's about all to just get in the field. The Q1 A wins at Tennessee, at Arky and N St Johns and what would still be good NET and WAB numbers will have them well above the cutoff line teams.
Kentucky just beating USCe will leave them on thin ice. Their NET is currently 29. Losing 3 of their last four - even with 3 Q1 games - will drop their net into the 30s. And it would mean that they lost 6 of their last 7 regular season games. The committee does look at how teams are trending. Kentucky has 5 Q1 wins. @USCe will be a quad 2 game. The other three left will be Q1. They really need to win one of those. If not they will finish 5-11 against Q1 teams and 4-2 against Q2 teams. Short of a run in the SEC tournament, selection Sunday would be very nerve racking for Kentucky if it plays out like that.
Posted on 2/23/26 at 6:25 pm to captdalton
quote:
Kentucky just beating USCe will leave them on thin ice.
I get your point that it would be a very ugly finish and most Kentucky fans would probably just want the season to be over. However, there really wouldn't be a bad loss in the bunch.
They'd end up:
NET 35
5 Q1 wins (3 of those importantly in Q1-A)
9-13 in Q1/2 games
Anything is possible but no team to date has ever been left out with anywhere near those type combined numbers.
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