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Strength of Schedule rankings through week 11
Posted on 11/10/25 at 5:52 pm
Posted on 11/10/25 at 5:52 pm
Using the FEI ELS metric. Pretty much the only SoS I consider valid since it's not based on averages.
Strength of schedule ratings represent the number of losses a team two standard deviations above average would expect to have against the schedule of opponents (ELS),
Only for games played thus far, doesn't count future games. Listed in order by overall rank, expected losses to the right.
I think the stats have a bit of a Big12 bubble in them currently, meaning those teams are grossly over-ranked, but it is what it is. Hopefully it pops soon. This is why we need more OOC games.
#3 Auburn - 1.98
#4 Florida - 1.92
#7 South Carolina - 1.80
#8 LSU - 1.76
#9 Arkansas - 1.75
#10 Miss St - 1.72
#12 Kentucky - 1.66
#13 Alabama - 1.62
#14 Missouri - 1.59
#16 Tennessee - 1.57
#17 Texas - 1.55
#19 Georgia - 1.40
#21 Vanderbilt - 1.32
#26 Ole Miss - 1.23
#27 Oklahoma - 1.22
#29 Texas A&M - 1.19
Other top10 teams:
#22 Indiana - 1.29
#24 Oregon - 1.26
#31 Notre Dame - 1.18
#36 Texas Tech - 1.05
#57 Ohio St - 0.72
Toughest:
#1 Wisconsin - 2.45
#2 Penn St - 2.42
2025 FEI Ratings (through Week 11)
Strength of schedule ratings represent the number of losses a team two standard deviations above average would expect to have against the schedule of opponents (ELS),
Only for games played thus far, doesn't count future games. Listed in order by overall rank, expected losses to the right.
I think the stats have a bit of a Big12 bubble in them currently, meaning those teams are grossly over-ranked, but it is what it is. Hopefully it pops soon. This is why we need more OOC games.
#3 Auburn - 1.98
#4 Florida - 1.92
#7 South Carolina - 1.80
#8 LSU - 1.76
#9 Arkansas - 1.75
#10 Miss St - 1.72
#12 Kentucky - 1.66
#13 Alabama - 1.62
#14 Missouri - 1.59
#16 Tennessee - 1.57
#17 Texas - 1.55
#19 Georgia - 1.40
#21 Vanderbilt - 1.32
#26 Ole Miss - 1.23
#27 Oklahoma - 1.22
#29 Texas A&M - 1.19
Other top10 teams:
#22 Indiana - 1.29
#24 Oregon - 1.26
#31 Notre Dame - 1.18
#36 Texas Tech - 1.05
#57 Ohio St - 0.72
Toughest:
#1 Wisconsin - 2.45
#2 Penn St - 2.42
2025 FEI Ratings (through Week 11)
15
Posted on 11/10/25 at 5:57 pm to 3down10
Ohio state really just has warm up games to get ready for the post season. Their schedule is an absolute joke.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 6:07 pm to 3down10
And if you take that and then remove how many games the teams have actually lost you get to FEI's strength of record number
1. Indiana (+1.29)
2. Texas A&M (+1.19)
3. Ohio State (+0.72)
4. Alabama (+0.62)
5. Georgia (+0.40)
6. Oregon (+0.26)
7. Ole Miss (+0.23)
8. BYU (+0.18)
9. Texas Tech (+0.05)
10. Texas (-0.45)
11. Vanderbilt (-0.68)
12. Oklahoma (-0.78)
13. Notre Dame (-0.82)
14. North Texas (-0.85)
15. James Madison (-0.86)
1. Indiana (+1.29)
2. Texas A&M (+1.19)
3. Ohio State (+0.72)
4. Alabama (+0.62)
5. Georgia (+0.40)
6. Oregon (+0.26)
7. Ole Miss (+0.23)
8. BYU (+0.18)
9. Texas Tech (+0.05)
10. Texas (-0.45)
11. Vanderbilt (-0.68)
12. Oklahoma (-0.78)
13. Notre Dame (-0.82)
14. North Texas (-0.85)
15. James Madison (-0.86)
Posted on 11/10/25 at 6:10 pm to 3down10
This analysis has an inverse bias . The better a team is the worse it’ s sos looks late in the year after they have beaten many teams. A bad team conversely makes their sos look better late in the year because the teams they play win and improve their metrics by playing weaker teams…..
So this is BS…….
So this is BS…….
Posted on 11/10/25 at 6:14 pm to 3down10
So is it a coincidence the two teams at the top fired their coaches and the one at the bottom wants coach of the year?
Posted on 11/10/25 at 6:22 pm to Zgeo
quote:
This analysis has an inverse bias . The better a team is the worse it’ s sos looks late in the year after they have beaten many teams. A bad team conversely makes their sos look better late in the year because the teams they play win and improve their metrics by playing weaker teams…..
So this is BS…….
It's not a metric based on wins/losses or win%, so no. It's based on the power rating(FEI in this case). That rating can actually go up as a result of playing good teams, even if they lose as long as they play well. And it can go down even in a win if you don't play well.
So not really.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 6:23 pm to chkenhawk
Posted on 11/10/25 at 6:31 pm to 3down10
I can tell you without a doubt OU has not played the second to last place sec sos ….. Don’t know where ur getting this but it’s false .
This post was edited on 11/10/25 at 6:32 pm
Posted on 11/10/25 at 6:33 pm to 3down10
BS you improve your metrics by playing loser teams.
This is BS
This is BS
Posted on 11/10/25 at 6:34 pm to chkenhawk
quote:
So is it a coincidence the two teams at the top fired their coaches and the one at the bottom wants coach of the year?
I don't think so.
Some of these coaches didn't have much of a chance, but they also didn't do themselves any favors. Like Auburn and Freeze for example. I generally gave Freeze somewhat of a pass because they played a bunch of really good teams, kept the scores close and seemed to be borderline top25. And then he goes and gets blown out against Kentucky, and you can't really defend that.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 6:36 pm to Zgeo
quote:
BS you improve your metrics by playing loser teams.
This is BS
These are opponent adjusted stats. Rushing for 100 yards against UMass does not carry the same weight as rushing for 100 yards against Oklahoma. One of them is clearly much more impressive and these stats reflect that.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 6:40 pm to 3down10
So it is adjusted LOL thx for clarifying .
Posted on 11/10/25 at 6:41 pm to 3down10
The main flaw of these rankings is they get dragging down by the quality of our rent-a-wins.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 6:43 pm to Soonerd78
quote:
I can tell you without a doubt OU has not played the second to last place sec sos ….. Don’t know where ur getting this but it’s false .
You're in the SEC now, we all play tough schedules.
Last year it had you in the top 3 in the country. I didn't hear complaints from OU fans then.
If it makes you feel better, you'll get a pretty big bump this weekend after playing Alabama.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 6:49 pm to AtlantaLSUfan
quote:
The main flaw of these rankings is they get dragging down by the quality of our rent-a-wins.
In this formula that doesn't really hurt much. They don't help at all, but it's based on predicted losses so if you play good teams, it recognizes the strength. That's why I like them so much even thought FEI isn't my favorite metric.
IE: Take a 2 game schedule. Team A played #49 and #50 and Team B plays #1 and #120. Averages say Team A played the tougher schedule, but Team B clearly played the tougher schedule. A good team would easily be 2-0 on Team A's schedule, but they would likely be 1-1 on Team B's schedule.
This formula recognizes that Team B's schedule is much more difficult than Team A.
There are 16 SEC teams and even the worst SoS in the SEC is in the top30 of the country.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 6:50 pm to 3down10
#57 Ohio St - 0.72
Posted on 11/10/25 at 6:59 pm to 3down10
Florida's in the top 10 
Posted on 11/10/25 at 7:02 pm to 3down10
I wish he'd do SOS rankings by conference too. There are not enough P4 interconference games to make national rankings reliable. Intraconference data are the only meaningful stats until we start playing a lot more P4 interconference games and eliminate the cupcakes.
This post was edited on 11/10/25 at 7:06 pm
Posted on 11/10/25 at 7:05 pm to 3down10
UF has played 5 top 25 teams
Holy shite
Holy shite
Posted on 11/10/25 at 7:07 pm to prouddawg
quote:
#57 Ohio St - 0.72
They had a weak schedule last year and still won it all. At some point, you just gotta beat them. When Georgia won two in a row, what took them out of the running for a third time? It was Bama. Maybe Bama is needed to take down OSU in the playoffs. Tennessee and Texas couldn’t do it
This post was edited on 11/10/25 at 7:08 pm
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