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Bama by the Numbers - Missouri Week
Posted on 10/6/25 at 8:22 pm
Posted on 10/6/25 at 8:22 pm
Again, consider this a cheap placeholder until Summer of George comes back.
LINE: Bama -2.5, O/U 51
FEI
Bama: 4
Missouri: 19
FEI OFF
Bama: 4
Missouri: 17
FEI DEF
Bama: 6 <-----
Missouri: 28
CFN
Bama: 14
Missouri: 4
CFN MODEL
Bama: 20
Missouri: 30
SP+
Bama: 6
Missouri: 8
NOTES
-Second week in a row CFN model has had us as a dog, they aren't aligning with SP or FEI at all on us
-Bama if things hold will play 8 top 30 teams this season per FEI
-FEI, CFN and SP+ all think we have a top 5-10 defense right now
-Worth noting though that CFN has us as 52nd in the country in rushing YPC defense, that aint gonna cut it against a very good RB at Missouri
-Missouri has played absolutely no one outside of a 9 point win against USCe, but they've been very efficient doing it, will it scale???
SCHEDULE (FEI RANK)
@FSU (30th)
ULM (127th)
WISC (58th)
@UGA (3rd)
VAN (18th)
@MIZZ (19th)
TN (12th)
@USCe (34th)
LSU (17th)
OU (10th)
@AU (23rd)
LINE: Bama -2.5, O/U 51
FEI
Bama: 4
Missouri: 19
FEI OFF
Bama: 4
Missouri: 17
FEI DEF
Bama: 6 <-----
Missouri: 28
CFN
Bama: 14
Missouri: 4
CFN MODEL
Bama: 20
Missouri: 30
SP+
Bama: 6
Missouri: 8
NOTES
-Second week in a row CFN model has had us as a dog, they aren't aligning with SP or FEI at all on us
-Bama if things hold will play 8 top 30 teams this season per FEI
-FEI, CFN and SP+ all think we have a top 5-10 defense right now
-Worth noting though that CFN has us as 52nd in the country in rushing YPC defense, that aint gonna cut it against a very good RB at Missouri
-Missouri has played absolutely no one outside of a 9 point win against USCe, but they've been very efficient doing it, will it scale???
SCHEDULE (FEI RANK)
@FSU (30th)
ULM (127th)
WISC (58th)
@UGA (3rd)
VAN (18th)
@MIZZ (19th)
TN (12th)
@USCe (34th)
LSU (17th)
OU (10th)
@AU (23rd)
5
Posted on 10/6/25 at 8:38 pm to tide06
Missouri to me is similar to Vandy in a lot of ways. Their QB probably not as experienced as Pavia but their RB is good.
Defense is salty. Probably another close game at half.
Defense is salty. Probably another close game at half.
Posted on 10/6/25 at 8:46 pm to tide06
We are finding our game. I agree with Saban. Keep the momentum. Mizzou is solid. Do not like the 11am start on Saturday tho.
Posted on 10/6/25 at 9:19 pm to KingOrange
quote:
Do not like the 11am start on Saturday tho.
Should be the 6;30 game....
Posted on 10/6/25 at 9:47 pm to 14&Counting
maybe i'm wrong but, isn't it a law that bama has to be the early game whenever they go to mizzou
Posted on 10/6/25 at 10:02 pm to KingOrange
quote:
Do not like the 11am start on Saturday tho.
I’ll take that over a 630 primetime kick where their fans can have all day to get wound up any day.
Home games I want to play at night.
Road games I want to play at 11am.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 8:12 am to tide06
quote:
Road games I want to play at 11am.
I get the reasoning, but I was listening to SiriusXM College Sports Radio this morning and they had an analyst on who predicted we would come out of the gates sluggish on Saturday.
I think we need to continue the trend of starting out on offense despite the advantage of deferring to the 2nd half.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 8:19 am to TideSaint
quote:
I get the reasoning, but I was listening to SiriusXM College Sports Radio this morning and they had an analyst on who predicted we would come out of the gates sluggish on Saturday.
I mean that's possible. Its possible that happens against any top 15 team on the road. Turns out its really hard to play on the road against really good teams.
But to some degree thats up to the team.
What we can't control is what it sounds like at kickoff at Neyland or Death Valley at 7:30pm.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 8:39 am to tide06
Defense needs a STRONG start! Hardy for Missouri is a great RB! He may win the Doak Walker award.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 8:48 am to StainlessTide
quote:
Defense needs a STRONG start!
I'm comparing Mizzou's 2024 season to this year.
They went 9-3, but we beat them 34-0 and they lost to A&M 41-10. Their only road win in the SEC was against hapless Mississippi State.
Against Power 4 competition, at home, this is how they fared:
Beat Boston College 27-21
Beat Vanderbilt 30-27 (2OT)
Beat Auburn 21-17
Beat Oklahoma 30-23
Beat Arkansas 28-21
This year they haven't gone on the road once.
They beat Kansas 42-31 and South Carolina 29-20.
I think they aren't nearly as good as their ranking suggests.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 8:51 am to TideSaint
I hope so! They have been hyped up all season for sure. From the little I have seen of them, Missouri seems more one dimensional, which falls in a similar category with Vandy.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 9:02 am to StainlessTide
quote:
Missouri seems more one dimensional, which falls in a similar category with Vandy.
They aren't as creative as Vandy, or Florida State, for that matter.
Like I said, we smoked their asses last year and they have feasted on cupcakes the last two years.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 9:06 am to tide06
quote:
-Second week in a row CFN model has had us as a dog, they aren't aligning with SP or FEI at all on us
They’ve said before that their model doesn’t do well when adjusting for a team destroying poor competition.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 9:08 am to TideSaint
Didn't we play them with their backup QB last year?
I think their QB play is going to be much improved this year. They also have homefield and rest/prep advantages plus the 11am road kickoff disadvantage for us.
I think this game is going to play out similar to Vanderbilt. Its going to still be a 1 score game in the 4th quarter but Simpson makes a few big plays to get us the 2 score breathing room.
I think their QB play is going to be much improved this year. They also have homefield and rest/prep advantages plus the 11am road kickoff disadvantage for us.
I think this game is going to play out similar to Vanderbilt. Its going to still be a 1 score game in the 4th quarter but Simpson makes a few big plays to get us the 2 score breathing room.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 9:21 am to Diego Ricardo
quote:
Didn't we play them with their backup QB last year?
Yes, but we also had Jalen Milroe playing QB for us.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 9:33 am to TideSaint
quote:
Yes, but we also had Jalen Milroe playing QB for us.
A true armless boxing match
Posted on 10/7/25 at 11:47 am to TideSaint
I'm not ready to say Bama wins it all (although I'd be ecstatic if that happened) but I think this team keeps getting better and better and for some weird reason, there are some "experts" (extreme sarcasm) who just aren't buying into the idea that this Tide team is actually really good.
Yes, Misery has a pretty good team but other than playing a decent South Carolina team, they've played no one. Hardy is a really good RB but I think Bama finds a way to limit him. People also forget Misery's secondary leaves much to be desired. If the O line can be at least decent, I think Ty throws for 300+ yards on them.
I thnk Bama wins this one by 10 points of more.
Yes, Misery has a pretty good team but other than playing a decent South Carolina team, they've played no one. Hardy is a really good RB but I think Bama finds a way to limit him. People also forget Misery's secondary leaves much to be desired. If the O line can be at least decent, I think Ty throws for 300+ yards on them.
I thnk Bama wins this one by 10 points of more.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 12:11 pm to Amarillo Tide
Posted on 10/7/25 at 12:13 pm to TideSaint
Posted on 10/7/25 at 12:19 pm to TideSaint
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