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Vandy by the Numbers
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:15 am
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:15 am
I’ll take this down if Son of George comes back to post his own breakdown because he has his own content and I'm just reposting from other sources.
Vegas Line: Bama -10.5
FEI OVERALL
Bama: 3rd
Vandy: 18th
FEI OFFENSE
Bama: 4th
Vandy: 8th
FEI DEFENSE
Bama: 9th
Vandy: 49th
SP+
Bama: 10th
Vandy: 11th
SP+ OFFENSE
Bama: 18th
Vandy: 6th
SP+ DEFENSE
Bama: 12th
Vandy: 29th
COLLEGE FOOTBALL NERDS RANK
Bama: 6th
Vandy: 3rd
COLLEGE FOOTBALL NERDS MODEL
Bama: 31
Vandy: 34
ANALYSIS
Vandy is really good. Not sneak up on you good. Against admittedly bad teams they have been CFP level good.
The real problem isnt just that offense is good (6th SP / 8th FEI), its that they're deadly efficient at the thing we haven't shown we can do: running the ball to the edge.
Right now we are sitting at 27th in the nation in defensive rushing yards per carry, but its not that teams have been going for 7 yards per carry, its that we are giving up explosive plays on the ground because we haven't consistently set an edge since Saban left and our LBs are either outmanned due to scheme, looking at the wrong gap or both. That's certain death against this Vandy offense that can now throw the ball.
The questions in my mind are how much of what Vandy has done is a reflection if the teams they've played being bad and is Vandy good enough to scale their offense this year.
Offensively its a completely different situation than last year. Simpson has been lethal through the air and their defense is only 23rd per attempt against the pass and they haven't played anyone with a functional passing game whatsoever.
More concerningly if youre Vandy their adjusted defensive points per game allowed is 57th in the nation. Thats really bad given the skewed numbers they're getting credit for against USCe who lost Sellers early against them.
This to me is a mirror image of what UGA faced last week: a flawed team who happens to do the thing you can't stop. Our shot here is that Vandy cant really do too much against solid passing games either so from that perspective I can see big numbers being put up unless they sit on the ball and grind first downs which is entirely possible as they did last year.
I dont like this matchup at all for Bama with our DL gutted and our LB group a mess against the Castellanos at FSU. There is a very valid reason the college football nerds projection has us losing and I wouldn't touch that -10.5 point line with a ten foot pole.
Vegas Line: Bama -10.5
FEI OVERALL
Bama: 3rd
Vandy: 18th
FEI OFFENSE
Bama: 4th
Vandy: 8th
FEI DEFENSE
Bama: 9th
Vandy: 49th
SP+
Bama: 10th
Vandy: 11th
SP+ OFFENSE
Bama: 18th
Vandy: 6th
SP+ DEFENSE
Bama: 12th
Vandy: 29th
COLLEGE FOOTBALL NERDS RANK
Bama: 6th
Vandy: 3rd
COLLEGE FOOTBALL NERDS MODEL
Bama: 31
Vandy: 34
ANALYSIS
Vandy is really good. Not sneak up on you good. Against admittedly bad teams they have been CFP level good.
The real problem isnt just that offense is good (6th SP / 8th FEI), its that they're deadly efficient at the thing we haven't shown we can do: running the ball to the edge.
Right now we are sitting at 27th in the nation in defensive rushing yards per carry, but its not that teams have been going for 7 yards per carry, its that we are giving up explosive plays on the ground because we haven't consistently set an edge since Saban left and our LBs are either outmanned due to scheme, looking at the wrong gap or both. That's certain death against this Vandy offense that can now throw the ball.
The questions in my mind are how much of what Vandy has done is a reflection if the teams they've played being bad and is Vandy good enough to scale their offense this year.
Offensively its a completely different situation than last year. Simpson has been lethal through the air and their defense is only 23rd per attempt against the pass and they haven't played anyone with a functional passing game whatsoever.
More concerningly if youre Vandy their adjusted defensive points per game allowed is 57th in the nation. Thats really bad given the skewed numbers they're getting credit for against USCe who lost Sellers early against them.
This to me is a mirror image of what UGA faced last week: a flawed team who happens to do the thing you can't stop. Our shot here is that Vandy cant really do too much against solid passing games either so from that perspective I can see big numbers being put up unless they sit on the ball and grind first downs which is entirely possible as they did last year.
I dont like this matchup at all for Bama with our DL gutted and our LB group a mess against the Castellanos at FSU. There is a very valid reason the college football nerds projection has us losing and I wouldn't touch that -10.5 point line with a ten foot pole.
This post was edited on 10/1/25 at 4:58 pm
2
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:24 am to tide06
I think the key to this game is the offense putting up a clean card.
It was encouraging to see Ty operate last weekend because the things he was doing are exactly what we lacked against Vanderbilt last year: a few bad reads (one for a pick six) and lacking assistance in setting the protection correctly for the pass play (one strip sack fumble).
I suspect Vanderbilt is going to be hyper aggressive to force stops and bad throws. If they sit back, we're going to see more of what Ty has been doing the last three games. Vandy knows they're going to run all over our arse. They're just looking for a takeaway or two like last year. Can we avoid that with seemingly a better equipped quarterback for executing this offense?
It was encouraging to see Ty operate last weekend because the things he was doing are exactly what we lacked against Vanderbilt last year: a few bad reads (one for a pick six) and lacking assistance in setting the protection correctly for the pass play (one strip sack fumble).
I suspect Vanderbilt is going to be hyper aggressive to force stops and bad throws. If they sit back, we're going to see more of what Ty has been doing the last three games. Vandy knows they're going to run all over our arse. They're just looking for a takeaway or two like last year. Can we avoid that with seemingly a better equipped quarterback for executing this offense?
This post was edited on 10/1/25 at 10:25 am
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:50 am to Diego Ricardo
Oh another factor is crowd noise. Their offense isn't too playcall complex I imagine, so it won't affect getting the calls in but it could create some pre-snap penalties that assist in getting a few more punts than last year. We need our fans to treat Vanderbilt like they'd treat Tennessee coming into BDS.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:55 am to Diego Ricardo
As bad as we played in last year's game, all we needed to win was one or two second half drives that we could pass the ball efficiently and drive the field. But our passing game was so boom or bust we couldn't do that and it continued to give Vandy's offense opportunities.
If we can just keep passing and moving the ball like we have the last three games, I don't think this game will be anything like last year's. But if we somehow have a bad day passing, we will probably get beat, because we're definitely not going to beat them with our running game.
If we can just keep passing and moving the ball like we have the last three games, I don't think this game will be anything like last year's. But if we somehow have a bad day passing, we will probably get beat, because we're definitely not going to beat them with our running game.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:56 am to Diego Ricardo
These may be a few dumb questions on my part, but does Pavia/Vandy more closely resemble Castellanos/FSU that played pretty much a perfect game to beat us?
Or Stockton/UGA whose RBs had a field day against us but only the 1 TD pass? Their RBs had long runs but Stockton was held in check and he's also a dual-threat as well correct?
Does Vandy have the RB horses like UGA?
Or Stockton/UGA whose RBs had a field day against us but only the 1 TD pass? Their RBs had long runs but Stockton was held in check and he's also a dual-threat as well correct?
Does Vandy have the RB horses like UGA?
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:58 am to tide06
Vandy is like the old guy at the rec center who isn't very athletic but knows how to get to his spots and makes you pay for every defensive lapse. You are bigger, faster, and stronger than him but defensively you can't seem to get away from him. Just annoying as hell and never gives you any free space.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:59 am to Diego Ricardo
quote:
We need our fans to treat Vanderbilt like they'd treat Tennessee coming into BDS.
Between the loss last year and the grind out win last Saturday, I think it’s about to be rowdy
Posted on 10/1/25 at 11:00 am to NWLA_Bama
If they go the hyper aggressive route, we ain't running ... going to have to pop them with big plays in the passing attack.
If they go the two-high and drop 7 route, we are going to need adequate run game production because that is how we keep Pavia off the field.
I tend to think we're close to becoming an adequate running offense. Maybe this is me becoming an optimist rather than pessimist with this team but I saw some encouraging things against a stout UGA defense. It wasn't explosive but it was committed and just effective enough. Additionally, they got some nice 5-7 yard chunks on the game sealing drive.
If they go the two-high and drop 7 route, we are going to need adequate run game production because that is how we keep Pavia off the field.
I tend to think we're close to becoming an adequate running offense. Maybe this is me becoming an optimist rather than pessimist with this team but I saw some encouraging things against a stout UGA defense. It wasn't explosive but it was committed and just effective enough. Additionally, they got some nice 5-7 yard chunks on the game sealing drive.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 11:05 am to NoleTideNole
quote:
These may be a few dumb questions on my part, but does Pavia/Vandy more closely resemble Castellanos/FSU that played pretty much a perfect game to beat us?
Or Stockton/UGA whose RBs had a field day against us but only the 1 TD pass? Their RBs had long runs but Stockton was held in check and he's also a dual-threat as well correct?
Does Vandy have the RB horses like UGA?
Pavia is very similar to Castellanos and FSU. In fact, I would say the broad plan of attack will be similar.
Vandy doesn't have the talent of UGA but they have a lot of schematic advantages that UGA did not present as often as Vandy will.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 11:09 am to NoleTideNole
quote:
These may be a few dumb questions on my part, but does Pavia/Vandy more closely resemble Castellanos/FSU that played pretty much a perfect game to beat us?
Or Stockton/UGA whose RBs had a field day against us but only the 1 TD pass? Their RBs had long runs but Stockton was held in check and he's also a dual-threat as well correct?
Does Vandy have the RB horses like UGA?
They're very much like FSU, but they pass a lot more. They have Pavia who has the most rushes but their RBs have most of the rushing TDs. the 2nd string RB has 20 carries for 211 yards and their 3rd string has 8 carries for 144.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 11:10 am to JIB
quote:
Vandy is like the old guy at the rec center who isn't very athletic but knows how to get to his spots and makes you pay for every defensive lapse.
Agree completely.
quote:
You are bigger, faster, and stronger than him
Problem is with Latham, Smith (1H), Beamon, Russaw out and Keenan at 80% playing in front of Lawson (80%) and Jefferson I'm not sure how much bigger / stronger / faster we really are in the front 7.
Our DL fought like hell against UGA, but we weren't really elite before we lost everyone and now we are barely average up front and that's only because Pierre is showing out replacing Russaw.
It also doesn't help that our corners aren't exactly physical on the outside either.
We absolutely, positively have to figure out how to set an edge this week or I think we lose and I'm also concerned with the short passing game for Pavia if we overcommit to stop the run game.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 11:20 am to tide06
Broadly speaking, there is no way we can expect to always win giving up 200+ on the ground against quality competition. Even if we manage to get past UGA and Vanderbilt doing that feat, do I love our chances against a Mizzou offense that loves to run outside zone and counter actions off it?
We can't keep looking like this on run defense and end up with enough wins to be in the playoff. Eventually, we've got to shore that up at the expense of anything else (pass rush, pass defense, etc) because the easiest thing to do in offensive football is to just hand it off. Can't let that be the most explosive thing to do against Alabama football too.
We can't keep looking like this on run defense and end up with enough wins to be in the playoff. Eventually, we've got to shore that up at the expense of anything else (pass rush, pass defense, etc) because the easiest thing to do in offensive football is to just hand it off. Can't let that be the most explosive thing to do against Alabama football too.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 11:21 am to Diego Ricardo
Well you have to figure that most things in sports aren't static so if we keep trying and practicing running the ball, at some point we have to see some improvement....don't we?
Posted on 10/1/25 at 11:23 am to Diego Ricardo
quote]Diego Ricardo[/quote]
Thanks, I was hoping you'd say more like Stockton b/c he was held in check all day and I was afraid he was gonna have a field day running/scrambling against us. Am I under a false illusion that our D did a great job shutting him down?
Is it a shut Pavia down and Gandy's offense grinds to a halt type game? I get shutting him down is easier said than done, but say we put 2 spies on him and he runs for 50 yards, do they have anyone else that can do what UGA' s rbs did against us and have a chance to win? Does Pavia have a better arm/WR corp than UGA/FSU?
I watched last year's game but don't remember Pavia's passing, guess I need to rewatch it.
Thanks, I was hoping you'd say more like Stockton b/c he was held in check all day and I was afraid he was gonna have a field day running/scrambling against us. Am I under a false illusion that our D did a great job shutting him down?
Is it a shut Pavia down and Gandy's offense grinds to a halt type game? I get shutting him down is easier said than done, but say we put 2 spies on him and he runs for 50 yards, do they have anyone else that can do what UGA' s rbs did against us and have a chance to win? Does Pavia have a better arm/WR corp than UGA/FSU?
I watched last year's game but don't remember Pavia's passing, guess I need to rewatch it.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 11:26 am to JIB
quote:
JIB
Thanks for that info, was responding to the other while you responded.
My days of multi-tasking are gone. ?? ??
Posted on 10/1/25 at 11:27 am to NoleTideNole
quote:
I watched last year's game but don't remember Pavia's passing, guess I need to rewatch it.
Pavia was 16-20 for 252 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs. He was fantastic. The best the guy ever had passing last year by a big margin.
This post was edited on 10/1/25 at 11:39 am
Posted on 10/1/25 at 11:37 am to JIB
quote:
Pavia was 16-20 for 252 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs. He was fantastic. The best guy ever had passing last year by a big margin.
I really wish that whatever voodoo curse is on us that these qbs play the most perfect games against us of their lives is reversed some day.
I have a sneaking suspicion that Chicken's handle is such b/c he sacrifices chickens in his voodooery against Bama.
Thanks for indulging me and not making feel any better about Saturday. ???? Here's hoping he plays the worst game of his life this Saturday.
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