March Madness: 5 teams that could bust your men's NCAA tournament bracket

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Monday we tackled the Cinderellas, the upset-hounds, the feel-good stories. Today's all about the cold water, the pitfalls, the downsides. What highly seeded teams could wreck your bracket before the first weekend is over? Every region will receive at least one cautionary tale. You probably won't be surprised by the first selection.

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Tennessee (Midwest Region, 2-seed)

It's time for our yearly conversation about Rick Barnes. You don't pile up 803 NCAA wins without some coaching chops, but his teams have a shockingly mediocre record in the NCAA Tournament. Barnes has made it to the Final Four just once in 27 tournament trips. Barnes' teams are just 9-21 against the spread in tournament games since 2005 — that makes his teams the worst bet on the board for the past two decades. Barnes had Kevin Durant as part of his 2007 Texas team — the Longhorns didn't make it to the second weekend. (I hate to see Matthew McConaughey sad.) Barnes has engineered a seed-upset just once in his 27 tournaments. Meanwhile, his teams have been knocked out by a lower seed a whopping 16 times. To be fair, upsets are more likely to happen when you're a higher-seeded team with expectations. Nonetheless, Barnes is collecting quite the negative resume here. His squads have lost four times to 11-seeds, once to a 12-seed, and last year they were tripped up by No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic in the Sweet 16 when they were a four seed. Maybe this year's team is different; as of Tuesday morning, 22.50% of Yahoo Bracket Madness entries had Tennessee in the Final Four, which was tied for the sixth-most popular pick. Transfer Dalton Knecht blossomed into a superstar. The top six Tennessee scorers are all upperclassmen. The Volunteers always have excellent defensive metrics. The Knecht breakout has only upped the offensive efficiency. Nobody expects Tennessee to lose to Saint Peter's in the first round, me included. But I'll have tickets against the Volunteers every game after that. Coaching is too critical in this game and in this tournament.

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Alabama (West Region, 4-seed)

If you like to see modern analytical basketball put into practice, the Crimson Tide are your jam. Their offense is all about spacing, 3s and layups — no mid-range jumpers here. Alabama's offensive metrics are a glorious sea of green. And it's a good thing, because Alabama's defense is a sieve. The Tide doesn't turn you over, they don't keep you off the glass, they don't even keep you from the free-throw line. An early exit would be history repeating — Alabama has made it out of the opening weekend just twice in the last six attempts. Opening-round opponent Charleston will take its chances outshooting Alabama. If that doesn't work, perhaps the lockdown St. Mary's defense will send Alabama packing. Only 56% of Yahoo Bracket Madness entries have Alabama making it to the Sweet 16. Data from the indispensable site KenPom.com was used in the composition of this article. All point spreads quoted came from partner Bet MGM. All Yahoo Bracket Madnessdata as of Tuesday morning.

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