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re: Why is MI favored over BAMA in Vegas?
Posted on 12/19/23 at 11:57 am to notsince98
Posted on 12/19/23 at 11:57 am to notsince98
quote:
because enough people keep putting enough money on Michigan to keep the line there.
This...and a lot of that money is probably a result of Alabama fatigue and not based on anything football related. Its wishful thinking...something along the lines of "I hate Alabama...I hope Michigan wins"...and then betting on that wish. I suspect when lines are close that is often the case...real gamblers would probably break about even and the game would be even but dumb money based on emotions go to one team and the other needs some incentive for dumb money to even it out.
1
Posted on 12/19/23 at 2:07 pm to AwgustaDawg
I think it’s a combination of things.
1) UM looks incredible from an advanced analytics perspective and the computer thinks they should beat Bama (+)
2) UM hasn’t played anyone outside of PSU and OSU who haven’t played anyone themselves outside of ND. It makes it impossible to say anything for sure other than UM > OSU > PSU (-)
3) UM hasn’t looked nearly as good offensively since the cheating scandal broke. Very likely they knew when the blitz was coming and now they don’t. (-)
4) Bama spent half the season as next to bad offensively and the 2nd half as elite. The bad half of the season is enough to flip the analytics towards UM hard. (+)
5) UM has to run the ball to win and no one without a mobile QB has run the ball against Bama. (-)
6) No one knows how Milroe will respond if UM can take away the first read and stuff the run. Might be enough to ugly it up and get a win (+)
7) UM hasn’t played a single top tier QB all year, we have no idea if their pass defense is actually elite or just a reflection of playing limited offenses. (-)
Bottom line is there are enough questions to make it a game you could pick either way.
1) UM looks incredible from an advanced analytics perspective and the computer thinks they should beat Bama (+)
2) UM hasn’t played anyone outside of PSU and OSU who haven’t played anyone themselves outside of ND. It makes it impossible to say anything for sure other than UM > OSU > PSU (-)
3) UM hasn’t looked nearly as good offensively since the cheating scandal broke. Very likely they knew when the blitz was coming and now they don’t. (-)
4) Bama spent half the season as next to bad offensively and the 2nd half as elite. The bad half of the season is enough to flip the analytics towards UM hard. (+)
5) UM has to run the ball to win and no one without a mobile QB has run the ball against Bama. (-)
6) No one knows how Milroe will respond if UM can take away the first read and stuff the run. Might be enough to ugly it up and get a win (+)
7) UM hasn’t played a single top tier QB all year, we have no idea if their pass defense is actually elite or just a reflection of playing limited offenses. (-)
Bottom line is there are enough questions to make it a game you could pick either way.
This post was edited on 12/19/23 at 2:18 pm
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