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Posted on 12/8/23 at 10:16 am to Jon Ham
quote:
Michigan is favored though. It’s one of the more surprising lines I’ve ever seen. ESPN’s matchup predictor has MI at 56%
That's huge. Saban is hard enough to beat but a pissed off underdog Saban is something they don't want any part of. I still don't get the betting line
Posted on 12/8/23 at 10:20 am to Jon Ham
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Michigan is favored though. It’s one of the more surprising lines I’ve ever seen.
Probably factoring in bama’s loss to Texas, close win against a terrible south Florida, close win against a bad Arkansas, miracle win against a bad auburn and injury/referee aided win against uga.
Posted on 12/8/23 at 10:26 am to Jon Ham
quote:
ESPN’s matchup predictor has MI at 56%.
Which is driven by FPI that really overvalues Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State.
Penn State is 3 in FPI.
FPI is heavily influenced by game control. Those three teams have dominated the rest of the conference by so much while playing minimal quality OOC games that they get overvalued. The only quality OOC games for the 3 of them are OSU-ND and PSU-WVU.
Most computer models over value Michigan just like they did Oregon for dominating weak opponents.
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